VIX・ヒンデンブルグオーメン・EPS・年金格付けグレードD

EPSが前年比マイナスくらい下落している。
EPSは遅行指標。
EPSが下落しているとき株価は上昇するのが普通。
EPSが最安値を付けてから1~3か月以内に10%以上20%未満の下落が起きる。
EPS最安値後、20%以上の下落は1~2年半程度かかる。そして20%以上の下落は長期間に及ぶ。
去年6月、2年ぶりにヒンデンブルグオーメンが点灯した。
今年も点灯を繰り返している。
ヒンデンブルグオーメンは株価上昇局面で点灯する指標。
ドイツの気球飛行船ヒンデンブルグ号の墜落にちなんだ名前。
オーメンは「666は悪魔の数字」のオカルト映画。
ヒンデンブルグオーメンはアメリカ株暴落の予兆チャート。
ヒンデンブルグオーメンが点灯すると40%超の確率でパニック売りが出る。
13年FRBバーナンキ議長発言・15年チャイナショックの大暴落をヒンデンブルグオーメンが的中させている。
VIXは恐怖指数。
ボラティリティインデックスの略語。
株価下落局面で現れる指標。
シカゴの証券取引所が発表する指数。
投資家の恐怖感・警戒感を指数化した指標。
指数が15%を超えると「1年後にプラスマイナス15%上下してもおかしくない市場です」という金融市場の不安定さを示す指標。
ドイツ銀行破綻・ブレグジットの混乱・フランス大統領選挙の混乱・トランプショック・アップルショック・北朝鮮ミサイル・中東の地政学リスクによる暴落をVIXは当てている。
EPS・VIX・ヒンデンブルグオーメン、三つとも暴落サインである。
現在のアメリカ株の過熱・バブル状態を示すサインでもある。
しかし、落日のヘッジファンドは未だ株価を吊り上げようとしている。
9月14日、逆イールドも発生した。
来年のバブル崩壊は相当規模が大きくなる。
「貯蓄から投資へ」のアベノミクスの挙句の果てである。
次元を超えて怖いのが年金格付けである。
海外大手年金コンサル会社マーサーが世界中の年金の格付け・評価を出している。
日本の年金審議会よりは信頼できる組織の報告である。
日本の年金の評価はABCDEの5段階のグレードDである。
世界の先進国・経済大国37か国中。
1位オランダ2位デンマーク。
この2か国がグレードA。
3位オーストラリア、グレードB+。
4位フィンランド5位スウェーデン6位ノルウェー7位シンガポール、グレードB。
10位以降にイギリス・ドイツ・フランス・アメリカが並ぶ。
日本は31位。
マーサー社の評価基準。
次の3つの基準を合計する。
1アドエクアリー・適切性・妥当性。国民の預貯金・持ち家・資産・会社の福利厚生・税制補助。評価基準全体の40%。日本はグレードC。
2サステナビリティ・持続可能性。年金給付の持続可能性・年金基金の資産状況・人口動態・政府の借金・経済成長の見通し。評価基準全体の35%。
3インテグリティ・誠実性。監督機関の誠実さ・ガバナンス・制度のコスト。評価基準全体の25%。日本はグレードC。
日本はサステナビリティ・持続可能性がグレードEである。
日本は年金制度が破綻せずに続くかどうかは、失格なのである。
グレードEの原因はGPIFの投資の失敗が大きく足を引っ張っている。
国の借金は増え続けている。
経済成長は減速しているが根本的な改革が無い。
アベノミクスの成長戦略の真逆である。
消費増税の景気の冷え込みで10~12月4半期のGDPはマイナス転落するだろう。
アベノミクスセカンドステージも目標倒れである。
企業は厚生年金の負担を嫌がり確定拠出年金・イデコへの移行を推進している。
確定拠出年金・イデコは税制優遇を謳い文句にしている。
30年、積立金を引き出せず、いざ金を引き出す時に膨大な税金を徴取される。
更に安倍政権は「老後2000万問題」で老後不安を煽り、確定拠出金・イデコ・積立ニーサに国民を誘導するが。
景気後退・リセッションで資産運用に投じた資金が目減りする将来が、来年始まる。
これがアベノミクスの果実である。
果実が腐っている。
アベノミクスは「日経平均株価だけを吊り上げる」馬鹿政策であると指摘してきた。
指摘が的中しても日本国民の老後崩壊が道連れでは後味が悪すぎる。
改めて「投資から貯蓄へ」をお勧めする。

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