投稿日: 投稿者: shakushouei

LIBOR６５００兆円の衝撃・債券市場の恐怖

（ブルームバーグ）： ヘッジファンド投資家のマイケル・バーリ氏は、「かなり」ショートにしたポジションを積み上げたとし、新型コロナウイルスの世界的流行でリスク資産が急落する中でそれがうまく機能していると述べた。パンデミックが世界経済に打撃を与え、パッシブ投資から資金が一斉に流出するとの見通しも示した。
2008年の金融危機より前に住宅ローン証券を空売りし、マイケル・ルイス氏の著書「世紀の空売り」で取り上げられ有名になったバーリ氏は、今見られる市場の波乱はパッシブ投資の「バブル」を破裂させる可能性があると重ねて指摘した。同氏は昨年８月からこれを警告してきた。11年にわたって大型株の強気相場を支えてきた中央銀行が景気刺激策を講じても、パンデミックに対してはあまり効果がないと同氏は指摘した。
同氏は電子メールでのインタビューで、「かなり弱気なポジションを積み上げており、今のところうまくいっている」と述べた。取引内容やポジションの詳細には触れなかった。「パンデミックは間違いなく、パッシブ投資バブル巻き戻しの引き金になり得る。ＣＯＶＩＤ19についてのヒステリーは現実よりも悪いように私には見受けられるが、一斉売りが起こった後では、それを引き起こしたものが正しかったかどうかは問題ではない」と語った。
新型コロナが世界的な株と社債の売りを引き起こした後、一部のパッシブ投資商品からは資金が流出している。
各国政府や中銀は感染拡大の影響を緩和する景気対策を打ち出しているが、ＭＳＣＩオールカントリー・ワールド指数は12日、２月に付けた高値からの下落率が20％を超えた。
バーリ氏はさらに、新型コロナが「どれくらい続くか誰にも分からない。従って売りには正当な理由がある」とした上で、「株価が上昇していること、そして中銀がいつでも売りにブレーキをかけられることを理由に株を買っていたならば、その前提条件はもはや無効だ」と指摘した。
一方で同氏は、現在の混乱で不当に打撃を受けた小型株の特定に力を入れており、新型コロナのショックはいずれは薄れ、今月の原油価格急落に助けられた企業や消費者もいるはずだと述べた。「将来的には」ショートポジションを解消し、株式に資金を戻すつもりだという。
ただ、今のところは痛みが最大限に達したという兆候はほとんど見られないとも指摘。「激しい売りだが、まだ十分な時間がたっていないために押し目買いを狙う心理は完全に消えてはいないようだ。しかし、市場の恐怖心はウイルスへの恐怖心と並行しており、２つのセットは市場センチメントに毒性の作用がある」と語った。
文藝春秋・マイケルルイス著「世紀の空売り」。
何度も繰り返し読む最高の一冊である。
サブプライムモーゲージ債の誕生から破綻、リーマンショックに至るまでのウォール街の趨勢を描き切った一冊である。
主役は医師で相場師のマイケルバーリと、怒れる投資家スティーブアイズマン。
二人は同時に人気商品であったサブプライムモーゲージ債の大暴落を見抜いた。
マイケルバーリは暴落に備える保険商品・CDSを編み出した主役である。
マイケルバーリは１１年後の大暴落相場で再び勝つ。
物語は続いていたのだと感慨深い。
サブプライムモーゲージ債はサブプライムローンから「ローンを貸し付けた権利」を商品化して創り出された仕組み債である。
１１年後、企業にカネを貸し付けるレバレッジドローンから創造された仕組み債・コラタライズドローンオブリゲーションCLOを債券市場の危険物として警戒している。
日本の金融機関はCLOを３０兆円所有している。
今回の大暴落でCLOは幾ら棄損されただろうと案じている。
LIBORの衝撃ニュースが飛び込んでくる。
ＬＩＢＯＲ廃止問題、世界の金融取引の指標として幅広く利用されるロンドン銀行間取引金利（ＬＩＢＯＲ）の公表が停止される問題。
停止されるのは来年の予定である。
［東京　１３日　ロイター］ – ロンドン銀行間取引金利（ＬＩＢＯＲ）を参照した融資契約や債券発行、デリバティブの想定元本が計６５００兆円にのぼることがわかった。金融庁と日銀が国内金融機関２７８社を対象にした調査で判明した。２０２１年末のＬＩＢＯＲ廃止に備えた対応は急務で、金融庁・日銀は、立ち入り検査を伴う「オンサイト」モニタリングも辞さない構えだ。
日本の金融機関にLIBORから創造された融資契約・債権・金融派生商品デリバティブが６５００兆円存在する。
金額だけでもLIBORはCLOの２００倍である。
今のペースで債券市場が崩壊していけばLIBORは、どのように爆発するのか。
今年の債券市場の爆発はリーマンショックの１０倍から１００倍と言われてきた。
LIBORは爆弾の本命である。
個人投資家へ。
大底・セリングクライマックス・大暴落など、まだまだ先である。
落ちてくるナイフを掴むな。
身を護って欲しい。
（ブルームバーグ）： 経済の先行きへの手掛かりを得ようと何年も前までさかのぼって株価動向を調べても、何も分からないものだ。しかし、米国株の指標が弱気相場に入った場合の話は別だ。
Ｓ＆Ｐ500種株価指数が弱気相場の目安となる直近高値からの下落率20％以上を記録したケースは過去93年間に13回あるが、それから１年以内に米経済が縮小しなかったのは1987年と1966年の２回だけだ。また、この期間に見られた14回のリセッション（景気後退）局面で、弱気相場を伴わなかったのは３回にとどまる。
Ｓ＆Ｐ500は12日、9.5％安と1987年のブラックマンデー（暗黒の月曜日）以来の大幅下落となり、過去最長の強気相場に終止符が打たれた。スポーツイベント自粛や移動制限が世界で広がる中で、新型コロナウイルスへの政策対応が経済への打撃を補いきれないとの不安が市場で強まっている。
株式市場は経済と同じではないとよく言われるが、今回のような場合は当てはまらない。市場をこれだけ激しく打ちのめす力の強さと株価値下がりが消費者心理に与える影響が理由だ。それに市場が警鐘を鳴らすのは、経済成長がマイナスになるかなり前の場合が多い。
ＪＰモルガン・チェースのジョン・ノーマンド氏によると、あらゆる金融資産の市場はリセッションが起きる確率を80％織り込んでいる。シカゴ・オプション取引所（ＣＢＯＥ）のボラティリティー指数（ＶＩＸ）は2008年以来の高水準に上昇。激しい相場変動や市場の取引停止がまれな事態でなくなる状況にあって、投資家は先行きを疑問視している。
ロイトホルト・グループのダグ・ラムジー最高投資責任者は株価下落について、厳しい成長見通しを反映しているだけでなく、国内の景況感と支出にも影を落とす恐れがあるとみている。同社は先週、株式投資を縮小した。
ラムジー氏は顧客向けリポートで、「脆弱（ぜいじゃく）な消費者信頼感と企業景況感は８－10％という緩やかな相場下落でも痛手を受けかねず、最終的にリセッションにつながるとわれわれは何カ月も前から警告してきた。この相場低迷は、過去最長の景気拡大に最後のとどめを刺す可能性が高い」と指摘した。
［サンフランシスコ　１２日　ロイター］ – １２日の米株式市場は約３０年ぶりの大幅な下落率を記録した。新型コロナウイルスの感染が「パンデミック（世界的な大流行）」となる中、世界的リセッション（景気後退）への懸念が広がった。投資家たちは、相場が今後どこまで下落するのか見当もつかず、茫然とするばかりだ。
Ｓ＆Ｐ５００種指数はこの１６営業日で約２７％下げ、ポートフォリオは壊滅状態。プロスポーツの試合中止、会議の取りやめ、がらがらのレストランが、不安心理に一段と拍車をかけている。投資家が心配しているのは、過去最長の米景気拡大が終わりつつあるのか、ではなく、今や現実味を帯びるリセッションがどの程度深刻なものになるのかだ。
サンライズ・キャピタル・パートナーズのクリストファー・スタントン最高投資責任者（ＣＩＯ）は「２００８年よりひどい。（対米同時攻撃が起きた）９月１１日よりも悪い。私は１９９３年にこの業界に入ったが、これほどパニック状態の市場は経験したことがない」と話す。「人々はただ、憶測に振り回されて取引している感じだ」という。
ダウ平均株価の１０％下落、Ｓ＆Ｐの９．５％下落は、ともに１９８７年以降で最大の下落率だ。１９８７年１０月１９日の「ブラックマンデー」には、ダウは２２．６％安と、過去最大の下落率を記録した。
米国株式市場はこの１０年、何度か調整に見舞われたものの、ほぼ一貫して上昇基調にあった。こうした市場に慣れた投資家にとって、今回の株下落の速度と大きさはショック以外の何物でもなかったようだ。
ダイヤモンド・ヒル・キャピタル・マネジメントの債券ポートフォリオマネジャー、ジョン・マックレイン氏は「乗り遅れることへの懸念が、未知への恐怖に変わった。こんな状況はこれまでに経験したことがない」と語った。
リフィニティブ・データストリームによると、今回の急落の結果、Ｓ＆Ｐ５００構成銘柄の予想利益を基にした株価収益率（ＰＥＲ）は１６倍を割り込み、２０１９年初頭以来の低水準となった。ただし、新型コロナの影響で、企業業績は今後、大幅に悪化することが見込まれる。
ビスポーク・インベストメント・グループはリポートで「リセッション入りがほぼ確実となり、Ｓ＆Ｐがきょう弱気相場の領域に入る中、問う意味のある質問は、どの程度織り込み済みなのかだ」とする。
こうした不透明感を反映し、投資家の不安心理を示すシカゴ・オプション取引所（ＣＢＯＥ）のボラティリティー・インデックス（ＶＩＸ指数）＜.VIX＞は１２日、１日としては過去最高の上昇を記録した。
インバネス・カウンセルの首席投資ストラテジスト、ティム・グリスキー氏は「問題なのは経済ではなく、新型ウィルスとそれが引き起こしているパニックだ」と話す。「私は、こうしたパニック状態は行き過ぎだと考えているが、人々が恐慌に陥るのを止めることはできない」。
トーレーダらは、米連邦準備理事会（ＦＲＢ）が新型ウイルスの問題に対応するため、来週の米連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）で再び積極的な利下げを行うと予想する。ＦＲＢは先週、５０ベーシスポイント（ｂｐ）の緊急利下げを行ったが、市場の鎮静化には成功しなかった。
ダイヤモンド・ヒル・キャピタル・マネジメントのマックレイン氏は「財政政策と金融政策の協調が必要。人々はプランがあることを知る必要がある」と指摘した。
こんな経済状況なのに阿保のトランプは、イラクでテロとの戦争を開始する。
何の為にアフガンから撤退したのか。
大統領がレイシストならKKK団・ネオナチの輩が勢いづく。
ヒトラーの「ドイツ第三帝国の野望のからくり」が現在アメリカから伺える。
総統・大統領のレイシズム・ヘイトクライムが国民に伝染するのだ。
権力者の行動コントロール・マインドコントロールである。
洗脳より悪質な疫病である。
［ワシントン　１２日　ロイター］ – 米国防総省は１２日、イラクにある親イラン武装勢力「カタイブ・ヒズボラ」の武器貯蔵施設５カ所に対し、「防御的な精密攻撃を行った」と発表した。イラクでは１１日、バグダッド北方にある基地へのロケット弾攻撃で米軍兵士２人と英軍関係者１人が死亡した。
国防総省は声明で「これらの武器貯蔵施設には、米軍や連合軍を標的にするために使用された武器の貯蔵施設が含まれる」とし、米国による攻撃は「防御的かつ相応で、イランの支援を受けるシーア派武装組織がもたらす脅威に直接対応するものだ」と説明した。
米軍は今回の空爆で何人が死亡したかは明らかにしていない。米軍が１月に殺害したイラン革命防衛隊のソレイマニ司令官のような高官が攻撃を受けたとの情報はない。
エスパー米国防長官は、必要であれば再び対応すると表明。「イラクと中東に駐在する我々の軍隊を守るため必要な措置を講じる」と述べた。
米軍がカタイブ・ヒズボラを攻撃するのはここ数カ月で３度目。昨年１２月には、イラクの基地への攻撃で米国人１人が死亡したことを受けて、２０人以上の戦闘員を殺害した。
米軍は１月のドローン攻撃で、ソレイマニ司令官とともにカタイブ・ヒズボラの創設者アブ・マフディ・アルムハンディス氏も殺害している。
イラク軍は、米軍がイラクの４カ所を空爆したと発表した。
ニューズウィーク。
＜カリフォルニア、ワシントンの銃器店には通常の10倍のアジア系住民が銃を買い求めて来店＞。
新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大がアメリカでも深刻化する中、人種偏見による攻撃から身を守るために、多くのアジア系住民が銃を買い求めている。
ロサンゼルス近郊のサンガブリエルバレーで、銃器店「アルカディア・ファイアアーム＆セイフティ」を経営するデビッド・リウは、店を訪れる客がここ数週間、普段の10倍になったと話している。
「まったくイカれている。3月3日と4日には、50人以上の客が来店して、（カリフォルニア州の）銃所持許可試験を受けて銃を買って行った。こんな小さな店では本当に異常なことだ」と、リウは本誌の取材に答えた。「どの客も、メディアが『アジア系、中国系は攻撃対象にされる』と言うので来ている」。
昨年12月に中国・武漢で新型コロナウイルスの発生が確認されて以降、アメリカではすでに何人かのアジア系住民がヘイトクライム（憎悪犯罪）の対象になっている。
3月前半には、ニューヨークの地下鉄車内で、アジア系男性が他の乗客の男から消臭スプレーを吹きかけられた。男は「彼が私のすぐ隣に立っているからだ。離れろと言ってくれ」と叫び、ウイルスに空気感染するのを嫌がっている様子だった。
2月には、やはりニューヨークの地下鉄構内で、マスクを着けていたアジア系女性が暴行を受ける、ヘイトクライムと見られる犯罪が起きている。
＜「今こそ武器を手にするとき」＞。
カリフォルニアの銃器店「アルカディア」は、アジア系アメリカ人が多く暮らす地域に店を構えている。
店の客の1人ダーク・チャンは、地元テレビ局の取材に、「（今が）まさに自分たちを守る武器を手にするときだ」と答え、以前だったら妻が銃を家には持ち込ませなかっただろう、と話した。「妻は、新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大を少々恐れている」。
リウは、地元社会のパニックは、全米のいくつかの都市が感染拡大によって封鎖されるかもしれないというニュースが報じられるようになってさらにひどくなった、と話している。感染拡大に動揺しているのは、アジア系住民だけではない、と言う。
「銃の卸業者に確認したが、ほとんどの在庫が無くなっている。中華系だけでなく、アメリカ人全体が銃を買い込んでいる」と、リウは話している。「ほとんどの中華系住民は銃を持っていない。だから今、買っている」
＜感染拡大が最悪のワシントン州でも＞。
カリフォルニアの他の銃器店でも同じことが起きている。
「通常でも店は忙しいが、今回はまったく常軌を逸している」と別の銃器店のオーナー、デニス・リンは地元テレビ局の取材に語った。リンの店もアジア系アメリカ人が多く暮らす地域にあり、銃の販売数が急増している。やはり客の多くが人種偏見で攻撃されることを恐れて銃を購入している、と言う。
「人々は人種で差別する」とリンは言う。「忘れていた。同じ人間だし、アメリカに暮らしている。ここは中国ではないのに」。
＜「家族と息子を守る」＞。
この店の客の1人、エイプリル・チャオも、中華系だから攻撃されるのではないかと心配して武器を買いに来たと認めている。
「私の家族と息子を守らなければならない」とチャオは地元ラジオ局の取材に答えた。しかし、自宅があるロサンゼルス近郊のランチョクカモンガで人種差別を経験したことはないと言う。
アジア系アメリカ人による銃購入数の増加は、全米で最も感染者数が多いワシントン州でも報告されている。
「アジア人というだけで飛び掛かられてはたまらない、ということだと聞いている」と、シアトル近郊ベルビューの銃器店「ウェイドズ・イーストサイド・ガンズ」のネット販売担当コール・ゴーランは銃関連の情報サイト「The Trace」に話している。
米ジョンズ・ホプキンズ大学のまとめによると、アメリカでは13日時点で1663人の感染が確認され、40人が死亡した一方、これまでに13人の症状が回復している。
大統領のレイシズムがアメリカ国内を内戦状態に陥れる。
自由の国アメリカは何処を彷徨っているのか。

“LIBOR６５００兆円の衝撃・債券市場の恐怖” への3,181件の返信

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  419. Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thank you!

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  420. Hello, i think that i saw you visited my website thus i came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to find things to enhance my web site!I suppose its ok to use a few of your ideas!!

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  422. excellent put up, very informative. I ponder why the opposite experts of this sector don’t realize this. You must continue your writing. I’m sure, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!

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  425. Hello I am so delighted I found your blog page, I really found you by mistake, while I was searching on Yahoo for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say cheers for a tremendous post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the moment but I have book-marked it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up the superb b.

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  427. Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site?

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  428. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little research on this. And he in fact ordered me breakfast simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about this matter here on your web site.

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  431. Link exchange is nothing else however it is only placing the other person’s website link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do same in support of you.|

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  432. Hey there! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when browsing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. Many thanks!

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  436. First of all I want to say awesome blog! I had a quick question in which I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your head before writing. I’ve had a difficult time clearing my mind in getting my ideas out. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or tips? Cheers!

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  439. You’re so cool! I don’t believe I have read something like that before. So great to find someone with a few genuine thoughts on this issue. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that is required on the web, someone with some originality!

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  440. Howdy! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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  450. Hi! I understand this is somewhat off-topic but I needed to ask. Does building a well-established website like yours take a massive amount work? I am completely new to running a blog but I do write in my diary on a daily basis. I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any kind of ideas or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

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  453. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to prevent hackers?

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  456. Awesome blog! Do you have any tips for aspiring writers? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I’m completely overwhelmed .. Any ideas? Thank you!

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  458. My spouse and I absolutely love your blog and find almost all of your post’s to be precisely what I’m looking for. Would you offer guest writers to write content to suit your needs? I wouldn’t mind creating a post or elaborating on most of the subjects you write about here. Again, awesome blog!

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  462. Hmm it seems like your website ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any tips for inexperienced blog writers? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  463. My brother suggested I might like this web site. He was totally right. This post truly made my day. You cann’t imagine just how much time I had spent for this info! Thanks!

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  467. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

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  479. Hello, i think that i saw you visited my weblog thus i came to “return the favor”.I’m attempting to find things to improve my web site!I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!|

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