2025年「カタストロフィの雨傘」

2020年の東京五輪開催に続き、2025年には大阪万博の開催が決定した。
明るいニュースの一方で、昨今、日本の将来に暗い影を及ぼす「2025年問題」への懸念が高まっている。
2025年に社会保障費は約149兆円へ、現役世代の負担重く。
平成30年版の「高齢社会白書」によると、日本の総人口は2017年10月1日時点で1億2,671万人。
高齢化は年々加速しており、65歳以上人口は3,515万人、総人口に占める高齢者の割合(高齢化率)は27.7%に達した。
問題となっている2025年には、人口のボリュームゾーンである団塊の世代が全員75歳以上の後期高齢者となり、高齢化問題がいよいよ抜き差しならない状況になる。
まず、懸念されるのは医療の問題だ。
身体機能の衰えに伴い、高齢者は医療や介護サービスに頼るようになり、公的医療保険や介護保険の利用も増える。
こうした流れを受けて、社会保障全体の費用が膨らむ見通しだ。
2025年の年金や子育て向けの支出も含めた社会保障費全体は、2015年と比較して20%増の148兆9,000億円に上ると推計されている。
少子高齢化で福祉の担い手となる現役世代が減少する中で、高齢者は増加する。
現役世代への社会保障負担はますます重くなるだろう。
(参照:内閣府「公益財団法人日本生産性本部「労働生産性の国際比較」)。
2025年の空き家率は20%台へ。
核家族化に伴い、高齢者の1人暮らしや夫婦のみの世帯の増加も社会現象となっている。
平成30年版「高齢社会白書」によると、2016年時点ですでに夫婦のみの世帯が約3割を占めており、単独世帯と合わせると半数を超える状況だ。
今後、高齢化に伴って配偶者と死別し、独居となる高齢者世帯が増加すると考えられる。
高齢化に伴い、懸念されているのが空き家の増加だ。
野村総合研究所の調査によると、2018年時点での空き家率は16.9%だが、2023年にはこれが21.0%に上昇し、2028年には25.5%に達する。
人口減に伴い新規住宅着工数も減少する見通しだが、それをさらに上回るスピードで世帯数が減っていく。
また、親族の死亡により相続が大量発生するものの、過疎地や生活に不便なエリアの住宅は利用価値が低く、空き家として放置されるものも増えるだろう。
空き家が増えると景観や地域の治安を損なうほか、自然災害の発生時に所有者がはっきりしない空き家の取り扱いをどうするかという問題も発生する可能性があるのだ。
(参照:野村総合研究所「住宅の除却・減築などが進まない場合、2033年には空き家が2,000万戸超へと倍増」)。
ロスジェネ世代の子供たち、「一家共倒れ」の懸念も。
さらに、不安をかき立てるのは、団塊世代の親を支えるべき子供たちの世代の不安定さだ。
団塊世代の子供たちは、人口のボリュームゾーンながら、いわゆる「ロスジェネ」といわれる就職氷河期世代にあたる。
バブル崩壊後の失われた30年の中で、能力にかかわらず正規の仕事が見つからず、働き盛りの時代に非正規の仕事を転々としながら糊口をしのいできたという人も多い。
仕事の不安定さから結婚せず、独身を通す人もいる。
ロスジェネ世代もすでに40代半ば。
2025年には彼らも50代にさしかかり、自らの老いや病と立ち向かわねばならなくなる。
不安定な職業で日々の暮らしに追われる彼らに両親の介護や病、加えて自身の老いや病といった困難が降りかかってきた場合、一家共倒れになるケースも出てくるだろう。
経済的自立ができずに実家で両親と暮らし、一家の生計を両親の年金に頼っている場合はさらに深刻だ。
両親が他界すれば、年金に頼ることはできなくなる。
うまく生活保護などの福祉の手がさしのべられれば良いが、社会保障負担が増大する中で、公的支援もだんだんと厳しさを増すだろう。
こうした層が生活の困窮から自暴自棄に陥り、社会の治安が悪化する懸念は多いにある。
この6年で日本の命運が決まる。
日本では諸外国に例を見ないスピードで高齢化が加速している。
アジアでは、中国やシンガポール、タイのように高齢化社会の到来が懸念されている国もあるが、有効な対策を打たないまま超高齢化社会を迎える日本は、彼らにとって反面教師だ。
2019年から2025年まで、あとたった6年。この6年間で日本の命運が決まるといっても過言ではないかもしれない。
(提供=百計ONLINE/ZUU online)。
日本経済を揺るがす大問題が、あとわずか5年で表面化する。
大企業が運用している「システム」が老朽化し、それを直せる人材もいなくなってしまう。
私たちの生活にも深刻な影響が及ぶ。
「2025年の崖」メガバンクと大手ITベンダーが、もし崩壊したら。
経産省が警鐘を鳴らす。
あとわずか5年で、日本経済は取り返しのつかない事態に陥る。
大企業はある重大な問題に頭を悩ませている。
2025年以降、人材やコストの不足により、老朽化したシステムを改修・運用できるプログラマーがいなくなる。
使い物にならなくなったシステムが障害を頻発し、日本経済、そして私たちの生活がマヒしてしまう。
これが「2025年の崖」と呼ばれる問題だ。
決済や入出金など、巨大なシステムを絶えず運用するメガバンクのような企業にとっては、致命的な問題になりかねない。
こうした企業にシステムを販売し、メンテナンスを手がけるNEC、IBM、日立のようないわゆる「ITベンダー」でも人材不足が進めば、ビジネスモデルは瓦解する。
そうした企業とつながっている他業種や個人までもが、この大波に飲み込まれる可能性があるのだ。
この「崖」について、警鐘を鳴らす経済産業省のレポートがある。その名も「DXレポート」だ。
日本は「ブラックボックス」だらけ。
DXとは、「デジタルトランスフォーメーション」の略。
簡単に言えば、IT技術が私たちの生活により身近になるよう、設備投資や技術革新を促す動きのことである。
では、「2025年の崖」とは、具体的にはどういうことなのか。
南山大学理工学部ソフトウェア工学科教授で、「DXに向けた研究会」座長の青山幹雄氏はこう解説する。
「日本の企業には、’80~’90年代に開発された情報システムをいまだに維持、運用しているところも多くあります。’25年には、21年以上稼働している『レガシー(時代遅れの)システム』が全体の6割を占めるとみられます。
レガシーシステムはただ古いからダメ、という話ではありません。
改修や企業内の各部門で適用するように書き換えを続けているうち、システム全体が肥大化し、その中身がブラックボックスになってしまっているのが大きな問題点なのです」。
システムは更新できるが、根本的な「型」は自動車や家電製品と同じように、古くなっていく。
それをごまかすように、ツギハギの更新を繰り返していくうちに、現場の人間にもそのシステムがなぜ動いているのかわからなくなってしまう。
こうしたシステムがかろうじて動いているのは、大本を作ったプログラマーが「職人の勘」に近い感覚で保守・管理しているからである。
なかには、町工場の職人と同じように、その人しか使いこなせない機械(プログラム)もあるかもしれない。
ところが、「レガシーシステム」の開発に関わった人たちの多くが、’25年には定年を迎え、一線を退いてしまう。
このことが、「2025年の崖」における最大の問題だ。
「’25年に定年を迎える’65年生まれの社員は、’87年、バブルの真っ最中に大卒22歳で就職した世代です。当時、日立、NECなどのメーカーではコンピューターの覇権争いが熾烈で、採用を拡大していました。
他の業界なら『バブル入社組』と揶揄される世代かもしれませんが、IT業界においては『彼らがいなくなると会社が立ち行かなくなる』と重宝され続けている世代なのです」(メガバンク系システムエンジニア)。
そのノウハウが現役世代に受け継がれていればいいが、実際はそううまくいかない。
若いプログラマーが昔のシステムを理解できず、ブラックボックス化を永遠に解消できなくなる可能性もある。
こうした事態は、当然ながら大企業であればあるほど起こりやすくなる。
運用しているシステムが大きく、ビジネス領域が異なるグループ会社と共通のものを使っていることも多いからだ。
先述のNEC、IBM、日立といったITベンダーでも、ブラックボックス化が進めばそれこそ死活問題だ。
ただでさえ自社のシステムを維持していかなければならないのに、顧客(他社)の保守管理も、’25年以降はノウハウの乏しい人材でやりくりする必要がある。
「外部に出たベテランプログラマーも、今はまだ呼び戻せるかもしれませんが、あと5年したらそれもできなくなるでしょう。
もうひとつ言えるのは、大企業が若い人材の確保に苦しんでいる現状です。最先端の技術を身につけた学生を採って、30年前のレガシーシステムの保守作業をやらせても、結局その仕組みをゼロから勉強することになる。そのうち、つまらないと言ってどんどん辞めていくんです」(大手ITベンダー幹部)。
’25年は、「団塊の世代」がすべて75歳以上の後期高齢者になるとされる年でもある。すでに生産年齢人口(15~64歳)は減少に転じており、’25年以降は急速に減っていく。
日本経済全体の働き手はただでさえ少なくなっていくが、ことIT業界においてその問題は深刻だ。
「若いプログラマーですら今のシステムについてわからない、やりたがらないわけですから、そもそもIT知識のない他部署の社員をシステム部門に回しても役に立たない。ただ人員を割いたところでは解決できないのが頭痛のタネです」(大手金融機関人事担当)。
時代遅れのシステムを維持するために、各企業が割いているコストは非常に大きい。
一般的には、IT部門に使われる予算の8割以上が維持費に消えているという。AIやフィンテック、次世代通信規格の5Gなど、世界的な技術革新は次々と起こっている。
こうした技術に対応したり、独自のIT技術を開発するのに使われる予算は、残りの1~2割に過ぎない。
少ない人材で、効率の悪い老朽化したシステムを運営していくことほど、ムダなことはない。
百年コンサルティング代表の鈴木貴博氏も言う。
「大企業ですら、こうした技術を導入できずに世界の競争から取り残され、日本経済が低迷する。これに加えて、古いシステムを維持するのは、人件費的にも生産性としても非常にコストがかかり、ますますシステム移行が遅れるという悪循環が生み出されるのです。
経産省の『DXレポート』では、’25年以降、日本全体で年間12兆円の経済損失が発生すると算出されています。とてつもない金額に見えますが、実際にそれだけの損失が生じる可能性は十分にあると考えられます」。
年間12兆円もの損失――。日本のひとり当たりのGDPがおよそ430万円であるとすると、単純計算で約280万人分のマネーがマイナスになるというわけだ。
「2025年の崖」メガバンクと大手ITベンダーが、もし崩壊したら二度と復活できない企業も。
どうにかしなければいけないことは、大企業も薄々気づいている。
ただ、それぞれの事情で、抜本的な対策に踏み切れていないのが現状だ。
メガバンクに代表される大企業では、巨大なシステムを硬直したタテ割り構造の組織内で稼働させている。
「システムの投資は短期的には利益を生み出しづらいものです。将来的なリスクはあっても、現在は正常に稼働しているので価値が見えにくい。そうなると経営者も大胆に投資することに躊躇することもあると思います。
おまけに、システム刷新は全社的な問題で、タテ割り意識の強い日本企業では、方向性の対立などでなかなか進まないこともあるでしょう」(前出・青山氏)。
二の足を踏んでいるうちに、5年などあっという間に経ってしまう。
システムを維持する人材がいなくなる――「崖」から転げ落ちてしまった場合、二度と復活することはできなくなるだろう。
「代表格でいえば、大手証券会社では危ない企業もあるでしょう。プログラマーより、実際に手を動かさないコンサルタントの育成にシフトしたのが一因です。
他の業種でも、自前で今のシステムを維持する人材を持っている会社はそれほど多くない」(前出・大手ITベンダー幹部)。
年間12兆円という巨額の経済損失が出る一方で、大企業がなんの対策も講じなかった場合、私たちの生活にはどんな影響が出るだろうか。
たとえば、年金支給日に銀行に行ってみると、ATMが動かず、長蛇の列ができている。
一時的に下ろせないだけならまだいいが、もし預金の記録データがシステム障害のせいで「消える」ことがあれば最悪だ。
これは銀行のATMに限った話ではない。
レジの決済、信号機、防犯カメラ、空調設備――。
私たちの身の回りのあらゆるものがネットワークでつながり、管理されている時代だ。
それらのシステムが次々と老朽化、修復できる人もいないとなれば、突然サービスやインフラが停止したり、暴走して街中がパニックになる可能性もある。
こうした「システム崩壊」の近未来が予測されるなか、「2025年の崖」越えを果たすために、先手を打った大企業がある。
メガバンクの一角、みずほ銀行だ。
今年7月、統合当初からの課題だったシステム刷新を果たしたのだ。
これまでみずほ銀行のシステムは、むしろ他のメガバンク2行に比べて「周回遅れ」と揶揄されることも多かった。
「特に、旧第一勧銀から引き継いだシステムは’88年から稼働しているもので、その老朽化は明白でした。結果、’02年と’11年の2度、みずほは大規模なシステム障害を発生させたのです。
これを受け、’11年6月からシステム統合計画を本格化させましたが、一向に完成せず、『IT業界のサグラダ・ファミリア』と言われたほど。
4000億円以上を投じながら一時は頓挫するとの噂も流れましたが、フタを開けてみれば、前例のない規模のシステム刷新だった」(前出のシステムエンジニア)。
計画開始から8年、最後の1年では実に9回もATMを停止させたみずほ。
3連休中の一時停止ということもあって、口座を持つ人からすれば不便極まりなかっただろう。
だが、「みずほは何をやっているのか」と顧客からの批判を浴びても、システム刷新を成し遂げる必要があったのだ。
「今回、紆余曲折ありながらも、みずほはメガ3行で最先端に立ったということができます。
システム障害のリスクや維持費の軽減を先んじて行ったわけですが、もうひとつ示したことがあります。それは、システムを一新するには、膨大な時間と費用が必要だということ。他の大企業が、あと5年のあいだにこれだけの大ナタを振るうことができるでしょうか」(金融コンサルタントの高橋克英氏)。
システムの老朽化と深刻な人材不足。「2025年の崖」からいくつもの企業が転げ落ちれば、日本が沈没しかねない。
「週刊現代」2019年11月23日・30日合併号より。
2025年問題は団塊の世代が後期高齢者となる日本の超高齢化と捉えていた。
「2025年の崖」など初耳である。
2045年AIがシンギュラリティを突破して人類・科学者の予測出来ない行動を開始するとは聞いていた。
問題が20年早まり、スーパーコンピューターがぶっ壊れる方向で表面化する。
AIに仕事を奪われる将来と散々、脅される。
蓋を開けてみれば大企業のメインシステムが瀕死の重体であり、エンジニアが助けるべきところをエンジニアが不足する、居ないという悪夢。
三大メガバンクで一人負けしていた如きの、みずほ銀行が近未来の悪夢に孤軍奮闘で立ち向っていたとは。
みずほ銀行の成功例と言う「カタストロフィの雨傘」が無ければ。
安倍晋三・霞が関は「2025年の崖」問題を国民に知らせなかっただろう。
「国民がパニックを起こす恐れがある」という、いつもの情報隠蔽である。
大切な情報を勝手にブラックボックスに入れるのが、現在の日本の権力者の姿勢・やり口である。
あと5年で、地獄の釜の蓋が開くのに。
安倍晋三は「必ずや私の手で憲法改正を成し遂げて行きたい」と言い張っている。
「沖縄の在日米軍基地問題」でオバマ大統領に「トラストミー」と囁いた鳩山由紀夫よりも、更にウスラ馬鹿である。
ちなみに「カタストロフィの雨傘」は中森明菜のアイドル時代の曲名である。
「スローモーション」「セカンドラブ」「トワイライト夕暮れ便り」「サンドベージュ砂漠へ」「予感」「駅」「ライアー」「難破船」のラインナップに連なる一曲である。

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