投稿日: 投稿者: shakushouei

１京８０００兆円みずほAIは儲かるか

１７　９　２３．
みずほフィナンシャルグループは株取引のトレーディング業務でアルゴリズム取引に人工知能・AIを導入する。
みずほ証券は今月から資産運用会社・銀行・生保・ヘッジファンドなど日本アジアの機関投資家に、
個別企業の株価が３０分・１時間後に、どう動くか予測するAI機能を組み込んだ取引システムを提供する。
同社のＡＩシステムには、各銘柄ごとに約5000種類の情報やデータが入力されている。
買い注文や約定の詳細などの板情報、株価のヒストリカルデータやニュースの出現頻度、またドル・円相場や金、石油の価格動向などデータを使い、気付くことのできない事象や違和感などといったアノマリーや法則、周期性を見つけ、将来の株価を予測する。
機関投資家にとってはこうしたＡＩを搭載したアルゴ取引システムを利用することで、市場で有利な価格で約定できる見通しだ。
みずほ証券では今回のサービス開始に先立ち、５月から８月の４カ月間で、毎月約500件（300億円相当）の取引を実施、有効性を検証。
その結果、運用成績はＡＩを使わない場合よりも0.01－0.017％改善したという。
みずほ証券はディープラーニングを使った株価の予測、それに基づくアルゴ取引への応用で特許を出願中だという。
みずほ証は2015年からＡＩチームを組織し、コンピューターサイエンスなどの分野で博士号を持つスペシャリストなどを外部から起用して開発を行ってきた。
現在はアルゴ設計の専門家を合わせ10人程度がディープラーニングを使った最先端のＡＩによる株価予測に取り組んでいる。
ゴールドマンっサックス・メリルリンチ・バンクオブアメリカ・モルガンスタンレーなど、ウォール街のヘッジファンド・投資銀行では既に、スパコン・AIを活用したアルゴリズム取引が主流である。
今更、日本のみずほ証券が特許を取得できるのか。
アルゴリズムを作製するウォール街のクオンツ・物理学者も何百人・何千人の規模であろう。
１０人のアルゴ設計の専門家のスケールの小さなチームでウォール街に太刀打ち出来るのか。
結果、ウォール街の猿真似に過ぎなかったという大失敗に終わらないか。
国際決済銀行（ＢＩＳ）のデータによると、政府と民間を合わせた世界全体の債務は２０１６年末時点で１５９兆６０７０億ドル（約１京８０００兆円）。
１０年間で６２兆ドル（約７０００兆円）増加した。
増加率は６３％と同期間の世界の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ、２０１６年で７５兆ドル、世銀）の伸び率４７％を上回る。
債務膨張の大きな要因は金融緩和だ。
０８年のリーマン・ショック後、世界の主要中央銀行は非伝統的な金融緩和策にかじを切った。
ＦＲＢは量的緩和策（ＱＥ）を３回にわたり実施。欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）と日銀もＱＥを実施するなど、先進国は政府部門の債務が大きく膨張しているのが特徴だ。
ＦＲＢの資産は、０８年時点の約９０００億ドルから約４兆５０００億ドル（約５００兆円）と５倍に増大している。
ＦＲＢはこれまでに利上げを４回実施してきたが、資産の縮小は２０日の米連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）まで見送ってきた。
「過去に例のない大規模な緩和策であり、縮小すれば何が起きるかわからない」（三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行・シニアマーケットエコノミスト、鈴木敏之氏）からだとみられている。
米株は史上最高値を連日更新。Ｓ＆Ｐ５００(.SPX)の予想ＰＥＲ（株価収益率）は歴史的にみて１５倍程度が平均だが、現在は１７倍後半。ＩＴバブル時の２８倍には及ばないが、割高感は強くなっている。
「ＰＥＲの上方シフトは、世界的な低インフレ化など他の要因も考えられるが、タイミング的にＦＲＢのＱＥ３開始と一致する。資産縮小でどのような影響が出るか警戒が必要だ」（Ｔ＆Ｄアセットマネジメント・チーフエコノミスト、神谷尚志氏）という。
不動産にもマネーが流入。
不動産会社Savillsの調査によれば、世界のすべての不動産価格の合計は、約２京４０００兆円（２０１５年末）。マネックス証券・執行役員の大槻奈那氏によると、ＢＩＳデータの住宅価格上昇率から推測される世界の不動産価格の上昇幅は、過去１０年で６４００兆円にのぼる。
金融政策が「正常化」されたなかで、経済が自立して成長していけるのか。
一向に上がらない長期金利やインフレ率が、疑問符を投げかける。
資産効果（株高による消費刺激）に多くを頼っているとすれば「経済がしっかりしているから、株は大丈夫」との楽観論には影が差す。
日本も債務膨張に歯止めがかからない。
ＢＩＳによると、政府と民間の債務合計は約１９９２兆円。この１０年で３５７兆円増加したが、民間部門が減少しているのに対し、政府部門は３７１兆円の増加だ。
２０年の財政健全化目標が先送りされれば、さらに歳出拡大圧力が強まる可能性は大きい。
間接的ではあるが、政府の債務膨張を許している要因の１つに日銀の存在がある。超低金利によって国債の利払い費が抑制され、国債は発行しやすい環境だ。さらに市場を通じているとはいえ、年間６０─８０兆円のペースで長期国債を買い続けている。
日銀の資産は約５００兆円。量的・質的金融緩和策（ＱＱＥ）導入前の１３年３月末と比較すると３倍超に増加した。
国債だけでなく、ＥＴＦ（上場投資信託）も年間６兆円ペースで買い続けており、売り越し基調に転じている海外勢とは対照的に、日本株の筆頭買い主体となっている。
米株ほどの過熱感はないが、東証１部の時価総額は過去最高を更新。時価総額を名目ＧＤＰで割った「バフェット指数」は１倍を上回り、調整サインが点滅している。
アベノミクスのせいで日本の金融市場は脆くなった。
同様の脆さが世界中を覆っている。
むしろ、ウォール街の「量的金融緩和」などという金融市場だけが潤う金融政策をアベノミクスが猿真似したので、当然の債務危機である。
AIはディープラーニングする。
人間がほうっておいても、AI独自で勝手に学ぶ。
教材はインターネット情報である。
「ＩＯＴ」全ての情報がインターネットに集約される。
１京８０００兆円の債務の存在などを学習したＡＩは、パニックに陥らないか。
全ての機関投資家にリターンを確約する余裕など世界の金融市場には存在しない。
投資銀行・証券会社・ヘッジファンドが個人投資家を食い物にして、しのいでいくという弱い者いじめの「資産運用」が繰り広げられる。
ＳＦの醍醐味はタイムスリップ・ＡＩ作品で味わえる。
タイムスリップ・ＡＩ作品には「ＳＦ作品でしか味わえないアレ」センスオブワンダーが横溢している。
ＡＩ作品は「高度に発達した人工知能・ＡＩが人間に優しさを教える」というアレである。
みずほフィナンシャルグループのＡＩ。
機関投資家を騙し続ける仕事に「良心」が痛まないか。
「ＡＩが良心の痛みに耐えかねて自爆する」。
優れたＳＦ作品の世界観は現実世界で実現する。
日本金融市場が、どういうＳＦ的展開を魅せてくれるか。
楽しみである。

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  189. Hello would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with?
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