1京8000兆円みずほAIは儲かるか

17 9 23.
みずほフィナンシャルグループは株取引のトレーディング業務でアルゴリズム取引に人工知能・AIを導入する。
みずほ証券は今月から資産運用会社・銀行・生保・ヘッジファンドなど日本アジアの機関投資家に、
個別企業の株価が30分・1時間後に、どう動くか予測するAI機能を組み込んだ取引システムを提供する。
同社のAIシステムには、各銘柄ごとに約5000種類の情報やデータが入力されている。
買い注文や約定の詳細などの板情報、株価のヒストリカルデータやニュースの出現頻度、またドル・円相場や金、石油の価格動向などデータを使い、気付くことのできない事象や違和感などといったアノマリーや法則、周期性を見つけ、将来の株価を予測する。
機関投資家にとってはこうしたAIを搭載したアルゴ取引システムを利用することで、市場で有利な価格で約定できる見通しだ。
みずほ証券では今回のサービス開始に先立ち、5月から8月の4カ月間で、毎月約500件(300億円相当)の取引を実施、有効性を検証。
その結果、運用成績はAIを使わない場合よりも0.01-0.017%改善したという。
みずほ証券はディープラーニングを使った株価の予測、それに基づくアルゴ取引への応用で特許を出願中だという。
みずほ証は2015年からAIチームを組織し、コンピューターサイエンスなどの分野で博士号を持つスペシャリストなどを外部から起用して開発を行ってきた。
現在はアルゴ設計の専門家を合わせ10人程度がディープラーニングを使った最先端のAIによる株価予測に取り組んでいる。
ゴールドマンっサックス・メリルリンチ・バンクオブアメリカ・モルガンスタンレーなど、ウォール街のヘッジファンド・投資銀行では既に、スパコン・AIを活用したアルゴリズム取引が主流である。
今更、日本のみずほ証券が特許を取得できるのか。
アルゴリズムを作製するウォール街のクオンツ・物理学者も何百人・何千人の規模であろう。
10人のアルゴ設計の専門家のスケールの小さなチームでウォール街に太刀打ち出来るのか。
結果、ウォール街の猿真似に過ぎなかったという大失敗に終わらないか。
国際決済銀行(BIS)のデータによると、政府と民間を合わせた世界全体の債務は2016年末時点で159兆6070億ドル(約1京8000兆円)。
10年間で62兆ドル(約7000兆円)増加した。
増加率は63%と同期間の世界の国内総生産(GDP、2016年で75兆ドル、世銀)の伸び率47%を上回る。
債務膨張の大きな要因は金融緩和だ。
08年のリーマン・ショック後、世界の主要中央銀行は非伝統的な金融緩和策にかじを切った。
FRBは量的緩和策(QE)を3回にわたり実施。欧州中央銀行(ECB)と日銀もQEを実施するなど、先進国は政府部門の債務が大きく膨張しているのが特徴だ。
FRBの資産は、08年時点の約9000億ドルから約4兆5000億ドル(約500兆円)と5倍に増大している。
FRBはこれまでに利上げを4回実施してきたが、資産の縮小は20日の米連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)まで見送ってきた。
「過去に例のない大規模な緩和策であり、縮小すれば何が起きるかわからない」(三菱東京UFJ銀行・シニアマーケットエコノミスト、鈴木敏之氏)からだとみられている。
米株は史上最高値を連日更新。S&P500(.SPX)の予想PER(株価収益率)は歴史的にみて15倍程度が平均だが、現在は17倍後半。ITバブル時の28倍には及ばないが、割高感は強くなっている。
「PERの上方シフトは、世界的な低インフレ化など他の要因も考えられるが、タイミング的にFRBのQE3開始と一致する。資産縮小でどのような影響が出るか警戒が必要だ」(T&Dアセットマネジメント・チーフエコノミスト、神谷尚志氏)という。
不動産にもマネーが流入。
不動産会社Savillsの調査によれば、世界のすべての不動産価格の合計は、約2京4000兆円(2015年末)。マネックス証券・執行役員の大槻奈那氏によると、BISデータの住宅価格上昇率から推測される世界の不動産価格の上昇幅は、過去10年で6400兆円にのぼる。
金融政策が「正常化」されたなかで、経済が自立して成長していけるのか。
一向に上がらない長期金利やインフレ率が、疑問符を投げかける。
資産効果(株高による消費刺激)に多くを頼っているとすれば「経済がしっかりしているから、株は大丈夫」との楽観論には影が差す。
日本も債務膨張に歯止めがかからない。
BISによると、政府と民間の債務合計は約1992兆円。この10年で357兆円増加したが、民間部門が減少しているのに対し、政府部門は371兆円の増加だ。
20年の財政健全化目標が先送りされれば、さらに歳出拡大圧力が強まる可能性は大きい。
間接的ではあるが、政府の債務膨張を許している要因の1つに日銀の存在がある。超低金利によって国債の利払い費が抑制され、国債は発行しやすい環境だ。さらに市場を通じているとはいえ、年間60─80兆円のペースで長期国債を買い続けている。
日銀の資産は約500兆円。量的・質的金融緩和策(QQE)導入前の13年3月末と比較すると3倍超に増加した。
国債だけでなく、ETF(上場投資信託)も年間6兆円ペースで買い続けており、売り越し基調に転じている海外勢とは対照的に、日本株の筆頭買い主体となっている。
米株ほどの過熱感はないが、東証1部の時価総額は過去最高を更新。時価総額を名目GDPで割った「バフェット指数」は1倍を上回り、調整サインが点滅している。
アベノミクスのせいで日本の金融市場は脆くなった。
同様の脆さが世界中を覆っている。
むしろ、ウォール街の「量的金融緩和」などという金融市場だけが潤う金融政策をアベノミクスが猿真似したので、当然の債務危機である。
AIはディープラーニングする。
人間がほうっておいても、AI独自で勝手に学ぶ。
教材はインターネット情報である。
「IOT」全ての情報がインターネットに集約される。
1京8000兆円の債務の存在などを学習したAIは、パニックに陥らないか。
全ての機関投資家にリターンを確約する余裕など世界の金融市場には存在しない。
投資銀行・証券会社・ヘッジファンドが個人投資家を食い物にして、しのいでいくという弱い者いじめの「資産運用」が繰り広げられる。
SFの醍醐味はタイムスリップ・AI作品で味わえる。
タイムスリップ・AI作品には「SF作品でしか味わえないアレ」センスオブワンダーが横溢している。
AI作品は「高度に発達した人工知能・AIが人間に優しさを教える」というアレである。
みずほフィナンシャルグループのAI。
機関投資家を騙し続ける仕事に「良心」が痛まないか。
「AIが良心の痛みに耐えかねて自爆する」。
優れたSF作品の世界観は現実世界で実現する。
日本金融市場が、どういうSF的展開を魅せてくれるか。
楽しみである。

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