黒田東彦ETF買いで売国

新型コロナを経済利用しているのは、財務省・黒田東彦・安倍晋三である。昨年12月消費増税によりGDPはマイナス7・2%暴落した。過去消費税率を上げるたびにGDPはマイナスに転じている。消費増税の度に景気は腰折れしてきた。財務省は経過を無視して法人税を下げ、消費税を上げ、消費税で法人税を補填する。

農民から苛斂誅求し、肥え太る殿様が財務省である。

黒田東彦に欠落している視点は、日経株価市場は、ゴールドマンサックス・クレディスイス・モルガンスタンレー・ドイツ銀行・アムロ等、ハゲタカ外資どもに、とっくの昔に牛耳られている事実である。海外勢が日本株を買い越せば株価は上がり、売り越せば株価は下がる。3月限月のオプション取引も海外勢に価格設定されており、日経株価の値動きは完璧にウォール街・海外勢にコントロールされている。

安倍晋三は、電通・パソナ・リクルートとカルテルを組んで新型コロナで一儲けしている。持続化給付金は電通・パソナ・トランスコスモス。家賃給付金はリクルート。ゴーツーキャンペーンはキャンペーンCM展開を任される電通。「世界に類を見ない充実した予算を計上した」と胸を張り、お友達が儲かる。

「新型コロナに感染してでも経済を回そう」とは、思いつめ過ぎており、視野が狭すぎる。安倍政権が国策として感染症対策に取り組めば、感染していない者が、安心して経済活動に取り組む社会に戻る。バーレーン・ニュージーランド・台湾・シンガポール・ベトナム、成功例に学べばよい。

「価格回復が行き過ぎ、実体経済から乖離(かいり)している」。国際通貨基金(IMF)は6月25日公表の報告書で、日米の株価が大幅に割高で、実際の経済指標から推計される価格からの乖離が「過去最高水準だ」と警鐘を鳴らした。
世界の主要市場の株価は、新型コロナウイルスのパンデミック(世界的流行)で3月に底値を付けて以降、急激に上昇。米株も日本株もパンデミック前だった年初の9割以上に戻している。
一方、実体経済の回復は鈍っている。米国ではコロナの感染再拡大でフロリダ州やテキサス州で飲食店の営業を一部で再び停止するなど、当初期待された7~9月期の「V字回復」は遠のいている。IMFは6月24日、世界経済の見通しを改定し、2020年の世界成長率をマイナス3・0%からマイナス4・9%に下方修正。経済の落ち込みが「大恐慌以来最悪」になると見込む。 実体とかけ離れた“危うい株高”を支えているのは、政府による拡張財政と中央銀行による空前の規模の支援策だ。米株の急反転は、米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)による米国債などの債券購入を無制限に行う決定の直後だった。さらに、コロナで格付けが投資適格から投機的水準(ジャンク級)になった「堕天使(だてんし)債」の購入に踏み切ったほか、一般企業への間接融資というリーマン・ショック時にも取らなかった異例の策に踏み込んだ。民間企業の債務を事実上保証する「禁じ手」だ。
結局、日米欧と英国、カナダ、スイス、スウェーデンの主要7カ国の中銀で計6兆ドル(約640兆円)規模で国債や社債などの資産購入に踏み切った。6兆ドルもの資産増加幅は、リーマン・ショック直後の08~09年の増加幅の2倍超。政府の国債増発を中銀マネーで支える事実上の「ヘリコプターマネー」政策が各国で展開され、市場には「経済が悪化すれば、中央銀行が支えてくれる」との期待が広がり、株価を底堅くしている。
“中銀ファイナンス”が支える相場は、いつまで持つか。BNPパリバ証券の河野龍太郎チーフエコノミストは、「ヘリマネ政策の『手じまい』が意識されると株価は急落する。11月の米大統領選の前後にヒヤリとする瞬間があるかもしれない」と語る。FRBによる社債買い取りなどの異例の支援策は、連邦準備法13条3項が認める「異例かつ緊急を要する場合」を前提とし、実施は際どい判断だった。大統領選が近づくにつれ、継続する正当性を政治の場で問われる可能性が高まると河野氏は見る。
FRBの総資産はドル資金供給や資産購入で3月からの約3カ月で約7割も膨張しており、市場は「手じまい」のタイミングを警戒する。6月中旬に増加が頭打ちになると株価も勢いを失った。
「FRBによる下支え効果は9月ごろまでだろう」と見るのは、金融アナリストの豊島逸夫氏。「秋にかけて米国の経済指標が良い状況が続けば、9月のFOMC(米連邦公開市場委員会)でパウエル議長が資産圧縮の可能性をにじませる可能性はある」と指摘する。
株式市場は緩和縮小を織り込むと、急激な「売り」で反応する可能性が高い。13年にバーナンキFRB議長が量的緩和縮小を示唆すると、米株暴落から世界金融不安につながった「バーナンキ・ショック」再来の懸念もよぎる。
一方、感染第2波の到来や、予想以上に企業の巨額破綻が連鎖した場合、中央銀行は下支えを続けざるを得ないだろう。6月のFOMCでも、第2波到来を意識した厳しい先行き見通しが共有され、追加緩和策が検討された。しかし、未曽有のヘリマネがこのまま供給され続ければ「来年には積乱雲のようにインフレ懸念が頭をもたげる恐れがある」(豊島氏)。
実際、インフレに強い金の価格は価格が急騰している。ニューヨーク金先物は7月7日、1トロイ オンス=1800ドルの節目を突破し、2011年9月以来約9年ぶりの高値を付けた。背景には感染再拡大で経済回復が遅れる懸念があるが、その先にはヘリマネ政策の末のインフレ懸念も透ける。「中銀への不信が金価格の高騰を招いている」(豊島氏)とも言えそうだ。
日産自動車が7月下旬に4年ぶりに発行する社債(総額700億円)を日銀が購入するかどうか、一部の市場関係者が注目している。日銀は3月と4月の金融政策決定会合で社債買い入れ枠を従来比で約3倍に拡大。新たに拡充した買い入れ施策の中で、経営不振にあえぐ日産の社債を日銀は買い入れるかどうか、市場が注視しているのだ。
買い入れ対象の格付けは投資適格までとし、買い入れ額の拡大を行う期間は来年3月末まで。日産の格付けは投資適格の最低ラインにある。ピクテ投信投資顧問ストラテジストの梅澤利文氏は、「日銀による買い入れの対象になる可能性は十分にある」とみる。
金融機関に対する「最後の貸手」であるはずの日銀は、この10年間に社債やETF(上場投資信託)を通じた株式の購入によって、事業会社の資金調達でも存在感を増してきたことがそうした見立ての背景にある。
それを敏感に反映したのが、「信用リスクへの保険」であるクレジット・デフォルト・スワップ(CDS)におけるスプレッド(保証料率)の動き。スプレッドが大きいほどデフォルト(債務不履行)リスクは大きい。既発の日産社債(5年物)のCDSスプレッドは、コロナ以前は0・5%程度から4月上旬に3・5%まで跳ね上がった後に下がり始め、足元では1・8%に低下。スプレッドが低下すれば発行条件は改善する。ピクテの梅澤氏は、「CDSスプレッドの動きを見ると、日銀が日産を助けているように見えるが、それは社債市場全体に言えることだ」と指摘する。
こうした社債は償還とともに日銀のバランスシートから消えていくので、時間が経過すれば日銀が抱えるリスクは低減する。
一方、ETFを通じて日銀が買い入れる日本の上場企業の株式は、日銀が売却しない限り日銀の保有資産として残り続ける。
2010年、白川方明前総裁の下で始まった日銀によるETF買いは、黒田東彦総裁(13年3月就任)の体制下で相次いで増額され、今年3月には上限が年6兆円から年12兆円に引き上げられた。
このような大規模な株式買い入れを行う中央銀行は、世界中で日銀だけだ。通貨を発行する権限を持つ中央銀行が株式市場に多額の資金を注入すれば、株価の下支えには絶大な威力を発揮する一方で、市場が持つ「価格を発見する機能」を損なってしまう。業績不振が続く企業を市場から退出させ、将来性のあるビジネスを見いだすといった、産業の新陳代謝を促す活力が日本の株式市場から失われていく副作用がある。
日銀で金融市場局と決済機構局の局長を務めた山岡浩巳氏(現フューチャー取締役)は「新陳代謝が弱まった結果、20~30年後に、日本経済のパフォーマンスが海外に比べて劣ってしまうことが最大のリスクだ」と指摘する。
「今の日銀の金融政策は持続可能とは言えない」との見方を示した東短リサーチの加藤出社長は、「中央銀行による株式の買い入れは、いったん始めるとやめられなくなる。麻薬のように弊害が大きいと多くの国は認識しているから、日本以外はほとんどやっていない」と警鐘を鳴らす。
しかし、黒田総裁は、ETF買いを当面やめるつもりはない。黒田氏はETF買い入れの出口戦略について、「2%の物価安定の目標が近づく際には、出口も具体的に検討する」(2月の衆院財務金融委員会)と述べた。
「2年で2%目標を達成する」と豪語した黒田氏の「公約」は、達成時期が度々延期され、18年4月の「日銀展望リポート」にはそれまで「19年度ごろ」としていた時期が削除された。直近の見通しでは、物価上昇率は21年度、22年度ともに1%に届かない水準だ。
日銀は、2%目標を達成するために、大量の国債買い入れを継続してきた。その結果、国内総生産(GDP)に対する日銀のバランスシートの比率は117・8%(6月末時点)に上る。主要な中央銀行の中で、日銀が突出して高いことが分かる。
それでも日銀は金融緩和の手を緩めず、4月27日の金融政策決定会合で年間80兆円としていた国債の買い入れ上限を撤廃した。コロナ禍の終息が見えない中、さらなる財政支出拡大も予想され、その結果として増発される国債を買い増せば日銀のバランスシートは一段と拡大する。
みずほ総合研究所エクゼクティブエコノミストの門間一夫氏(元日銀理事)は「2%目標の追求や、国債の無制限の買い入れなど効果を見込むことができないことに資源を投入しすぎている。株式市場の根幹にも介入しており、市場の機能をゆがませている弊害を認識するべきだ」と危惧する。 サンデー毎日。エコノミスト。

未だに2%目標を追及しているのは黒田東彦だけだろう。一度打ち出した方針を梃子でも変えないのはエリートの悪癖である。GDPは何時までも発表されない。マイナス27%くらいになっているだろう。

GDPは壊滅・実態経済は大苦戦・ゴーツートラベルは不発。新型コロナ禍と消費増税に国民は苦しめられている。政府が感染症対策に取り組み、消費税をゼロに戻す。たった二つの当たり前の政策で国民生活は、ゆとりを取り戻す。

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