鬼より怖い一文新値

「鬼より怖い一文新値」日本の相場格言である。過去の高値を、僅か1文上昇後、急反落する。或いは1文上昇後、上昇が続く。「一門新値のサインが点灯すると急反落か、上昇だから気を付けろ。」良い格言ではない。マザーズ18年1月の高値は1367.86、その後急反落した。20年10月14日高値は1368,19、「今週の値動きに気を付けろ」かよ。

アメリカの2年国債と10年国債の逆イールドが昨年8月16日に発生し、1年2か月経過する。過去50年、逆イールド発生後、1年6か月以内に相場は大暴落し続けた。

CAPEレシオ・シラーPER・バフェット指数・みずほクラッシュ指数・ヒストリカルDI・ヒンデンブルグオーメン。現状、全ての指標がバブル状態を示し、危険水準を上回っている。

FRBが無制限の量的金融緩和というMMTを実践する。刷ったドルは即座に金融市場に流れ込む。嘗て無かった異次元の試みである。その為、過去の傾向・データ・サインが機能しない。

テクニカル分析。トレンドライン・ボラティリティ・モメンタム・ファンダメンタルズ・ボリンジャーバンド+1σ-1σ・エリオット波動・移動平均線・バンドウォーク・つつみ足・たくり足・ロウソク足・ゴールデンクロス等、過去の傾向・データ・サインを幾ら勉強しても、役には立たない。

テクニカル分析を披露しながら素人を金融相場・博打場に誘う投資顧問は、全員詐欺師である。くれぐれも騙されない様にしよう。

秋から冬に向かう欧米各国、軒並み新型コロナが猛威を振るっている。実体経済と金融経済の乖離は益々、激しく差が開く。世界の無理やりな金融バブルは絶対に弾ける。混迷を深めるアメリカ大統領選挙も金融市場の爆弾と成りつつある。

ロビンフッド証券の個人投資家達の、売買動向データは全てヘッジファンドに買い上げられ筒抜けである。個人投資家が幾ら群れを成しても最終的にヘッジファンドに勝つことは出来ない。危険なバブル相場・ウォール街カジノで個人投資家が勝つなど有り得ない。

大恐慌こそ億万長者に成れるチャンスだ。甘い囁きは、破産に誘われる嘘の台詞である。

(CNN) 米国内の10州で16日、新型コロナウイルスの新規感染者が過去最多を記録したことが分かった。

米ジョンズ・ホプキンス大学の集計によると、16日は全米で新たに計6万9100人の感染が確認された。7月29日に新規感染者7万1300人が報告されて以来、最も多い人数となった。

この日に過去最多となったのはコロラド、アイダホ、インディアナ、ミネソタ、ニューメキシコ、ノースカロライナ、ノースダコタ、ウェストバージニア、ウィスコンシン、ワイオミングの各州。

また計30以上の州で、ここ1週間の新規感染が前の週を上回った。感染は特定の地域に限らず、広範に及んでいることがうかがえる。

1日当たりの新規感染者数は先月12日に約3万4300人まで減ったものの、直近1週間の平均はそれから60%以上増加し、5万5000人を超えた。 全米各地で入院患者が増加していて、今後さらに死者も増え始める恐れがある。

新型ウイルス感染による米国の死者はこれまでに計21万9000人余り。1日当たりの死者は7月末~8月半ばの1000人余りから、現在は700人程度まで減っている。

しかし米ワシントン大学の研究チームは、これが1月半ばまでに1日当たり2300人を超え、2月1日までには計38万9000人以上となる恐れもあると指摘する。

ミネソタ州当局による接触追跡では、感染者の中にトランプ大統領が同州で先月開いた集会の参加者16人、同集会への抗議デモに参加した4人が含まれていることが分かった。

同州で最近報告された選挙関連の感染者は計28人。このうち1人が民主党大統領候補のバイデン氏の支持者集会、3人はペンス副大統領の演説会で感染したとみられている。

【ワシントン時事】来月の米大統領選を前に、米サイエンス、英ネイチャーなど世界で最も権威のある科学誌が相次いでトランプ大統領の再選不支持を打ち出した。

これまで政治とは距離を置く傾向が強かったが、「科学軽視」と映る政権の新型コロナウイルス対応を看過できず、「ノー」の声を上げ始めた。

「リベラルか保守かの問題ではない。われわれの政治指導者は危険なほど無能だ」。医学界で最高水準の影響力を誇る米医学誌ニューイングランド・ジャーナル・オブ・メディシン(NEJM)は今月8日、再選反対を明確にした。

科学誌ではこれまでも地球温暖化など科学を否定するトランプ氏に批判的な論調はあったが、一線を越えさせたのはコロナ対応だ。サイエンス誌は9月、コロナの脅威について「明白なうそをついた」と再選不支持を表明。ネイチャー誌も今月14日、トランプ政権の「破滅的なコロナ対応」を非難し、民主党候補のバイデン前副大統領支持に踏み込んだ。

米科学誌サイエンティフィック・アメリカンは9月、創刊175年の歴史で初めてバイデン氏を特定候補として支持した。

科学者の本分とは異なる政治的立場の表明には批判の声もあるが、NEJMのルービン編集長は「(トランプ氏に関する)絶え間ない憂慮すべきニュースが限界点に達した。読者離れを招きたくないが、とても重要な問題について言わずにいられなかった」と米メディアに語った。

【AFP=時事】米国各地で17日、ドナルド・トランプ(Donald Trump)大統領に抗議する街頭デモが行われ、女性を中心に数千人が集まった。参加者の多くはピンク色の帽子をかぶり、トランプ氏が連邦最高裁判事に保守派を指名したことに強く抗議した。

主催者らによると、新型コロナウイルス感染拡大の影響で規模は小さかったものの、国内のさまざまな都市でデモに参加する人の姿が見られた。

ニューヨーク、ロサンゼルス、シカゴ、フロリダ州フォートローダーデール(Fort Lauderdale)などで430余りのデモ行進が行われ、10万人を超える人が参加したという。

11月に大統領選を控えるなか、参加者らは、先日死去し、女性やリベラル派の象徴だった最高裁判所判事のルース・ベイダー・ギンズバーグ(Ruth Bader Ginsburg)氏に弔意を示し、また、トランプ氏が後任に保守派のエイミー・コニー・バレット(Amy Coney Barrett)氏を指名したことに抗議した。

バレット氏は自身が敬虔(けいけん)なカトリック信者であることを認めており、リベラル派などの間では、上院が同氏を承認すれば最高裁で保守派が絶対多数となり、人工妊娠中絶の権利を認めた従来の判断を覆しかねないとの懸念が浮上している。

【AFP=時事】フランス保健当局は15日、同国での1日の新型コロナウイルス新規感染者数が初めて3万人を超えたことを明らかにした。欧州では感染拡大を受けて規制を強化する国が相次いでおり、世界保健機関(WHO)は「大きな懸念」を表明した。

フランスで過去24時間に確認された新規感染者の数は過去最多の3万621人を記録。24時間で88人が死亡し、死者数の合計は3万3125人となった。検査陽性率は12.6%と、前日の12.2%から上昇。集中治療室(ICU)に収容される患者の数も増加傾向にあり、12日は171人、13日は226人、14日は193人、15日は219人がICUへ収容された。

エマニュエル・マクロン(Emmanuel Macron)大統領は14日、感染拡大を防ぐ措置として、パリなど9都市に対し夜間外出禁止令を出すと発表していた。

さらにポーランドも15日、複数の主要都市を含む「レッドゾーン」で部分的ロックダウン(都市封鎖)措置を導入すると発表し、人々に対し在宅勤務を呼び掛けた。

新型ウイルス流行の警戒レベルを3段階で分けている英国では、首都ロンドンの警戒度が今週末からレベル2に引き上げられ、規制が強化されることが発表された。

スペイン北東部カタルーニャ(Catalonia)自治州では今後15日間にわたりバーやレストランが閉鎖される。さらにドイツでも、1日の新規感染者数が流行初期以来の水準に達したことが発表された。

WHOのハンス・クルーゲ(Hans Kluge)欧州地域事務局長はデンマークの首都コペンハーゲンで開いた記者会見で、「措置を強化」すべき時が来ていると訴え、欧州での感染者増加傾向に「大きな懸念」を表明した。

(CNN) ドイツのメルケル首相は17日、新型コロナウイルスの感染が再拡大している事態を踏まえ国民に新型コロナ対策への一層の協力を求め、政府が定めた規則を守るよう訴えた。

ビデオメッセージで述べた。ドイツではこの1週間、1日の新規感染者数の最多記録を更新した。

メルケル首相は、制御出来ない形で感染拡大が進まないようあらゆることを実行しなければならないと強調。「どのような冬やクリスマスになるのかは今後の数日間、数週間で決まるだろう」と続けた。

ドイツの新型コロナ対策はこれまで感染者の接触先を効果的に追跡し、他人にうつす前に感染者を隔離する方法が中心になってきた。

首相はこの対策に触れ公衆衛生当局は素晴らしい仕事ぶりを示しているとしながらも、「感染者数が非常に多い場所では衛生業務従事者の仕事も追いつけない」と主張した。

感染再拡大を防ぐため自宅内外で人と会うのは非常に少なくして欲しいと要請。絶対的な必要性がなければ旅行や多数の人間の集まりに加わることは避けて欲しいとも呼び掛けた。

毎日新聞。
欧州で新型コロナウイルスの感染が再び急速に拡大している。世界保健機関(WHO)によると、欧州で直近1週間の新規感染者数は、3月の「第1波」の3倍近くに達した。17日にはフランス、ドイツ、イタリアなどで1日あたりの新規感染者数が過去最多を更新。フランスでは同日からパリを含む複数の都市圏で夜間の外出禁止措置が始まった。

「クリスマスがどうなるかは、この先の数日、数週間で決まる。私たちの行動にかかっている」。新規感染者数が7830人となったドイツのメルケル首相は17日、国内の流行が「非常に深刻な局面」にあるとした上で、国民に不要な外出を控えるよう訴えた。

フランスでは17日に3万2000人を超え、過去最悪の水準が続く。同日午後9時からパリなど9都市圏で、原則的に夜間の外出が禁止された。飲食店や映画館なども午後9時で営業を終了し、6月に飲食店の規制が解除されて以降、夕食などを楽しむ人でにぎわっていたパリの夜の街角は、再び静けさに包まれた。  夜間の外出には通勤や通院、ペットの散歩など理由付きの証明書の携帯が義務付けられ、違反すると最大で3750ユーロ(約46万3000円)の罰金と禁錮刑が科される場合がある。

仏政府は少なくとも4週間は夜間の外出禁止措置を続ける予定だ。このため、影響を受ける業界には、総額10億ユーロ(約1235億円)の支援策を講じる。売り上げが落ち込む飲食店やスポーツクラブなどへの月額1万ユーロ(約124万円)の補償や、従業員の失業手当の給付などが盛り込まれた。

今月14日から飲食店の営業停止措置がとられているオランダでは、不要な移動の自粛が求められる中、ウィレム・アレクサンダー国王夫妻が16日に休暇でギリシャの別荘に出かけたことが批判を集め、国王夫妻は旅程を変更して17日に帰国した。

各国で1日あたりの新規感染者数は「第1波」のピーク時の2~3倍近くで推移しているが、死者数は当時に比べてはるかに低く抑えられている。検査体制を拡充した結果、新規感染者には軽症や無症状の例も多く含まれるようになったほか、重症者の治療手順の改良などが影響しているとみられる。

ただ、WHOのテドロス事務局長は16日の記者会見で「死亡例の報告は3月と比べて減っているが、(欧州の)多くの都市で入院者数が増えており、今後数週間で集中治療室の空きがなくなると報告されている」と指摘。感染者の増加が医療態勢を逼迫(ひっぱく)させるとして危機感を示した。

日テレニュース。
ヨーロッパで新型コロナウイルスの感染者が急激に増えている。WHO(=世界保健機関)によると、16日に報告された一日あたりの新規感染者数はヨーロッパ全体でおよそ15万3000人に達した。各国は規制を強化し、ウイルスの抑え込みに必死だ。

【ヨーロッパで感染“再拡大”】 15日、フランスでは一日あたりの新規感染者が初めて3万人を突破し、イギリスやスペインなどでも1万人を超える日が続いている。16日に報告された一日あたりの新規感染者数はヨーロッパ全体でおよそ15万7848人。(WHO)春の第1波では多い日でも4万人程度だった。第1波をはるかに超える感染者が報告されている。

【各国で強まる規制】 こうした中、各国は市民の行動制限を強化している。 フランス政府は14日、公衆衛生上の非常事態を宣言し、17日以降、夜間の外出が禁止された。イギリスでも飲食店の夜間営業が禁止されている、17日からは自宅やレストランなどの室内で同居している家族以外と会うことができなくなった。スペインの首都マドリードでは通学や通勤を除く都市の出入りが制限されている。

【地域ごとに異なる規制】 春と比較すると、感染状況に応じ地域単位で規制の強弱をつけているのが特徴だ。春に行われた全国規模の“ロックダウン”は経済や人のメンタルヘルスに深刻な影響を及ぼすためだ。 ヨーロッパではおおむね4月が感染拡大のピークで、8月まではゆっくりと収束傾向にあった。しかし、飲食店の営業再開や夏のバカンスシーズンで人の移動が増えたため、再び感染が拡大したとみられる。

【死者数は低い水準】 一方で死者の数は第1波の時よりも低い水準に抑えられているのが共通した特徴だ。背景にはまず検査体制が急速に拡大したことがある。無症状や軽症の感染者も数多く報告されるようになった結果、見た目の“死亡率”は下がっている。 また重症化しやすい高齢者への感染が抑えられているのも要因だろう。各国とも第1波の教訓から高齢者施設などでのPCR検査を徹底的に行い、拡大を食い止めている。

ただ、16日、WHOは今後数週間でヨーロッパの多くの都市で重症患者用の集中治療室のベッドが埋まるとの報告を受けていることを明らかにした。医療体制が逼迫(ひっぱく)すれば状況は一気に悪化するだけに、各国とも感染拡大を抑え込もうと躍起だ。 ヨーロッパは再び正念場を迎えている。

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