プーチンがウクライナに軍事侵略を開始する以前に、習近平のサイバー部隊がウクライナにサイバー攻撃を行っていたことが発覚する。プーチンと習近平が密約を交わして、ウクライナを攻撃する。ユーラシア大陸をロシアと中国とで牛耳ろうとの密約であろう。
「プーチンを止めることが出来るのは習近平だけだ」との「中国待望論」が、どれだけ、的外れであったか。しかも、中国は「平和の祭典オリンピックとウクライナへのサイバー攻撃」を両立させたわけである。オリンピックがプロパガンダに過ぎない事実の絶対的根拠と成る。
今後、オリンピックを開催する国は「アホ丸出し」となる。「札幌冬季五輪」など、まさか、本気ではあるまいな。
格付け会社・ムーディーズはロシアのソブリン債を「B３からCAに」格下げする。「CAは、非常に投機的でありデフォルトに陥っているか、或いは、デフォルトに近い状態にある。が、一定の元本の回収は見込める。」との格付け。CAの下はC。Cはデフォルトである。
フィッチレイティングスも、ロシアの格下げを行っている。
ロシアが一方的にウクライナに軍事侵略した。欧米から厳しく経済制裁されている。
だから、格下げされているかに、見える。
格付け会社は、ウォール街・ロンドンシティの最底辺の会社であり、商業銀行・投資銀行・ヘッジファンドマネージャーに就職出来なかった者が、格付け会社に勤める。格付け内容は、上層企業の言い成りである。
ゴールドマンサックス・モルガンスタンレー・アメリカの年金基金が、ロシアのディストレスト債券を大量に買い込んでいる。
ディストレスト債券とは、破綻もしくは、破綻まじかな株や債券。天然ガス独占企業ガスプロム・鉄鋼メーカーエボラズ・ロシア鉄道、等の社債がディストレスト債券となり、買い漁られている。
中国も、ロシアを買っている。中国石油天然気集団（CNPC）・中国石油化工集団・中国アルミニウム・中国五鉱集団、等、中国国営企業が、ガスプロム・アルミメーカールサール、のディストレスト債券を買い漁っている。
中国は、元々、食料品・エネルギーをロシアからの輸入に頼っていた。ここで、ディストレスト債券を大量に買い込んで発言権を高めようとの思惑がある。
アメリカは単純なカネ儲けである。年金基金が購入していると言うことは、バイデン政権公認の金融取引なのである。アメリカは本気でロシアを経済制裁する心算があるのか。
アメリカとEUとで、ロシアに経済制裁する。アメリカとEUの格付け会社がロシアの格付けを引き下げる。暴落したロシアのディストレス債券を、アメリカと中国とが購入する。
戦争ビジネスである。
ロシアへの経済制裁も抜け穴だらけである。ロシアの原油と天然ガス・金の値段は爆上がりしており、購入する国が有る。ドイツは天然ガスを、今まで通り、普通に購入している。
２月にロシアを国際銀行間通信協会SWIFTから排除すると言いながら、実際の排除は３月１２日である。猶予期間が長過ぎる。ロシア最大銀行ズベルバンクは排除対象に入っていない。ガスプロム銀行も制裁の対象外である。ドイツとの取引に支障が出るからだ。
ロシアには１００軒のオリガルヒ（新興財閥）が存在する。経済制裁されたのは、その内１２人だけである。サウジアラビアとUAEはロシアを経済制裁しておらず、１２人のオリガルヒの資産は暗号資産に置き変わり、UAEに流れている。
凍結されている富裕層の資産も、あくまでも凍結である。いずれは解除して、本人の手元に戻る。
経済制裁が抜け穴だらけであると同時に、ロシア経済が絶対に崩壊しないと思わせるのは、クレジットフォルトスワップCDSの存在が大きい。
CDSは、リーマンショック時に、相場師マイケルバーリがAIGに造らせた保険商品である。現在、販売しているのは、アメリカ・EUの保険会社である。
ロシアには、国家・地方・企業への多額のCDSが賭けられている。社債だけで４兆１千億円のCDSが設定されている。ロシアが国家として破綻すれば、アメリカ・EUの保険会社が支払うCDSの保健料金は、アメリカ・EUが連鎖倒産する天文学的金額となる。
「だから、ロシアは破綻しない。」判断が、ゴールドマンサックス・モルガンスタンレーのディストレスト債券の購入理由である。
さらに、３月２９日。２年国債と１０年国債の利回りが逆転する逆イールドが発生する。通常、償還リスクの低い２年の利回りが、償還リスクの高い１０年の利回りを上回ってしまう。逆イールド発生後、３か月から１年半以内に、大暴落が発生し、景気後退リセッション入りする。
過去、５０年、逆イールド発生後、必ず、大暴落が起きている。８９年不動産バブル・００年ドットコムバブル・０８年リーマンショック・２０年コロナショック。全ての大暴落の前には必ず、逆イールドが発生してきた。
しかも、前回が１９年の発生であり、わずか３年ぶりの発生と成る。FRBの金融引き締め。今月からの９回の利上げ、中には１回の利上げで０・５％引き上げる利上げも予定される。利上げの後には、FRBのポートフォリオの引き締めQTが待ち受ける。
第三次世界大戦危機・終息しない新型ウィルスのパンデミック・パンデミック・ウクライナ危機による、エネルギー・食料の高騰。サプライチェーンの分断。中国のコロナ禍による世界の工場の停止。
パウエル議長の金融政策の頑張りで、インフレの高止まりを抑制する。市場関係者は、ほぼ全員「無理だろう」と判断している。
だから、最恐の暴落指標逆イールドが発生する。
ディストレス債券・金融詐欺商品デリバティブ・クレジットフォルトスワップ・逆イールド。役者が揃ってきた。
前回の、コロナショックは「新型コロナ対策としてのFRBの無制限の量的金融緩和政策」に、ウォール街が援けられた。援けられたのを良いことに、金融詐欺ビジネス・カジノ資本主義を推し進めてきた。パンデミック中にウォール街は肥え太ってきた。
今回は、ゴールドマンサックス・モルガンスタンレーが、ぶっ潰れるレベルの大暴落を期待したい。アメリカ政府が税金投入で救おうにも救えないレベルの大暴落を眺めたい。
血を流し、涙を流すのは、ウクライナ国民とロシア兵だけというのは、あまりにも無情な不公平である。戦争ビジネスで一儲けを企むウォール街のエリート達にも、血と涙を流して貰いたい。
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