逆イールド復活ヒンデンブルグオーメン再点灯トランプバブルは何時までか

[ニューヨーク 28日 ロイター] – 米国債の価格が今週に入って急騰したため、イールドカーブの一部で長短逆転(逆イールド)が発生した。これは伝統的に米経済にとって、弱気のシグナルとされる。
2年債と5年債の利回りが27日、昨年12月以降で初めて逆転。28日には昨年10月以来となる3カ月物政府短期証券(Tビル)と10年債の逆イールドが見られた。
長期債の利回り低下は、中国発の新型コロナウィルスの感染拡大による経済的な悪影響を懸念した投資家が、安全資産に資金を移動させたため。昨年12月、米中が貿易協議の「第1段階」合意に達し、世界の経済成長と物価は上向くとの楽観ムードが年明けに生じていたが、水を差されたと言える。
3カ月物Tビルと10年債の利回り差は注目度が高い。これまで逆イールド化はずっと、その1-2年後に景気後退(リセッション)が起きるという信頼できる先行指標になってきたからだ。2007-09年の世界金融危機以後に逆イールドが生じたのは、昨年3月が初めてだった。
もっとも逆イールドに続いてリセッションが到来するとしても、タイミング自体は分からない。世界的な金融緩和政策のおかげで、景気の落ち込みが顕現化する時期が先延ばしされる可能性もある。
また、一部のアナリストは、大半がマイナス利回りとなっている欧州や日本の国債に比べて米国債に投資妙味があることが、そうした条件がない場合よりも米長期債利回りを低水準にとどめる役割を果たしており、逆イールドのリセッションのシグナルとしての正確性を弱めていると指摘する。
イールドカーブを巡る基本的な知識を以下にまとめた。
◎米国債のイールドカーブとは何か。
イールドカーブとは、1カ月から30年まで、あらゆる期間の米国債の利回りの分布をつないだ線で、通常のケースでは右肩上がりになる。長期債の方が、投資家が要求するリスクプレミアムが大きくなるからだ。
短期ゾーンよりも長期ゾーンの利回りが相当高い状態を「スティープ化」と呼ぶ。つまり2年債と30年債の利回り差(スプレッド)は非常に大きくなる。一方、長短スプレッドが小さい状態は「フラット化」で、例えば3年債と10年債の利回りもわずかな違いしか見られない。
◎逆イールド化とは。
めったにないケースとして、イールドカーブの一部もしくは全体が右肩上がりでなくなる。長短利回り逆転(逆イールド)の発生だ。専門家や市場関係者によって、イールドカーブの注目部分は異なるものの、どの部分の逆イールドも、将来の経済成長が弱まるとの見通しを反映している点は共通する。
昨年3月には3カ月物Tビルが約12年ぶりに、10年債利回りを上回る現象が起きた。10月以降は、今週28日に一時逆イールド化した局面を除けば、スプレッドはプラスで推移している。
やはりリセッションの手掛かりとして注視される2年債と10年債のスプレッドは昨年8月、07年以来となるマイナスに沈んだ。9月初めからは、プラスを維持している。
◎なぜ逆イールドに重大な意味があるのか 。
逆イールドは、リセッションが迫っていると知らせてくれる昔ながらの指標だからだ。米国債のイールドカーブは過去50年間、各リセッションの前に逆イールドになっている。シグナルとして間違っていたのは、たった1回しかない。
短期ゾーンの利回りが長期ゾーンより高くなるのは、短期の借り入れコストが長期を上回ることを意味する。そうした環境では、企業は操業コストが割高になったと判断し、経営陣が投資を抑制するか棚上げする。消費者の借り入れコストも上がるため、米国内総生産(GDP)の3分の2超を占める個人消費は減速してしまう。
そして最終的に経済が縮小し、失業者が増える。
◎逆イールドが起きる理由は。
短期ゾーンの国債は、米連邦準備理事会(FRB)などの中央銀行が決める政策金利の動きに対する感応度が大きい。
長期債は、投資家の物価見通しにより大きく影響される。債券保有者にとってインフレは忌み嫌うべき要素だからだ。
つまり18年までの3年間のようにFRBが利上げすると、短期債利回りが押し上げられる。そうすると借り入れコスト上昇が経済活動の足を引っ張ると見込まれるので、将来のインフレ予想が抑え込まれ、投資家は長期債が比較的低い利回りにとどまる事態を積極的に受け入れる。それが足元の状況だ。
日本経済新聞。
米国の株式市場で急落の兆しが出ている。eワラント証券によると27日時点で「ヒンデンブルグの予兆」(ヒンデンブルグ・オーメン)と呼ばれるテクニカル指標の警戒サインが点灯した。1カ月以内に株価が5%超の調整局面に向かうとされる。
CAPEレシオ(シラーPER)とは。
ノーベル経済学者でリーマンショックの大暴落を事前に警告したロバートシラー教授が考案したPER(株価/EPS・一株当たり利益)の一種で、過去10年間の実績利益の平均値に物価変動を加味して計算する株価指標のこと。
EPSは当期純利益で計算する株価指標であるため、単年度に変動が大きくなることがある。
CAPEレシオは過去10年間の実績利益の平均値に物価を加味した一株あたり利益をもとにPERを計算する指標であるため、一時的要因による収益の変動や景気循環の影響が除外され、実質的な株価の割高・割安感が測れる指標である。
CAPEレシオは25倍に近づくと株価の過熱感が意識されて株価は下落に転じやすい傾向がある。
ブッシュ政権は「リーマンショックのバブル崩壊を予測出来る賢い人は誰もいなかった」と主張する。
ロバートシラー教授とヌリエルルービニ教授の二人はきちんと警告出来ていた。
現在CAPEレシオはリーマンショックを抜いてITバブル・1929年世界大恐慌・大暴落に次ぐ史上3番目の高さである。
シラー教授はリーマンショックを見抜けなかったエコノミストたちに「予測の際に過去10~30年あまりのデータに依存した。実際には第二次世界大戦前の世界大恐慌時、さらにその以前にまでさかのぼる必要があった。」「株式市場は1881年に至るまでの超長期のデータを使用することによって、ある程度予測可能。」と語る。
「CAPEレシオは、来年を予測することにはあまり機能しない。5年後、10年後を予測する長期投資家向けの指標である。」とも語る。
CAPEレシオは19年12月の最新値が30.91。
シラー教授はケースシラー住宅価格指数も発明している。
シラー教授は「2020年に景気後退が50%の確率で発生する可能性があり、今は転換点にある。住宅価格は上昇し続けているが、上昇は衰え始めており、リーマンショックの2年前の2005年に似ている。」と語る。
シラー教授は「トランプ大統領は過去の大統領と違いアニマルスピリットの煽り方が上手い。トランプブームが続けば景気後退は数年伸びるかもしれない。」とも語るが、皮肉とも受け取れる。
FRBのパウエル議長はトランプの恫喝に屈して「隠れQE4」を行っているのではない。
14年にQE3が終わってからは財務引き締め政策を採っている。
「隠れQE4」を行わねば金融システムが崩壊するという危機感で大量緩和政策を行っている。
パウエル議長が真相を語れば、アメリカ市場の過熱に水を差し、その時点で大暴落である。
逆イールドの本命2年国際と10年国債の金利が逆転したのが19年8月14日である。
本命の逆イールドが発生すると、一旦株価は急上昇し、2か月から1年半後までに大暴落する。
過去の大暴落を全て的中させてきた逆イールドが復活した。
ヒンデンブルグオーメンも昨年、繰り返し点灯し、再点灯している。
CAPEレシオは史上3番目の危険性を警告する。
暴落サインが警告を繰り返している。
トランプは「アメリカ経済は絶好調だ」と得意満面である。
赤い猿の道化師である。

“逆イールド復活ヒンデンブルグオーメン再点灯トランプバブルは何時までか” への233件の返信

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