次のバブル崩壊はリーマンショック時の数十倍の損害規模となる

昨年、世界の借金総額、国家・地方・大企業・大手投資家の借金総額が、3京円を超える。2年前の2京6000兆円だった当時、借金総額の借り手の6割が、アメリカと中国であった。

誰が、誰から、借金すれば、3京円という天文学的金額と成るのか。返す心算はあるのか。返す為の努力は、どのように行っているのか。

昨年、中国の地方政府だけの債務総額は、923兆円に達する。中国のGDPの52%に当たる。言い換えれば、中国のGDPの半額は、地方政府の借金である。中国共産党中央政府は更に高額の借金を負っているだろう。

それでも、習近平は「VS江沢民」の権力闘争しか、念頭にない。敵派閥の財力源である、IT産業・不動産事業・学習塾予備校産業を、狙い撃ちしている。アリババ・テンセント・恒大集団、習近平に潰された企業群である。今年に入り、学習塾の好未来で9万人・新東方で4万人のリストラが断行される。

借金抱えて、自国の基幹産業を潰すあたり、習近平もトランプ並みの阿保なのだろう。

馬鹿の一つ覚えみたいに「中国脅威論」を唱えるエセ保守のビジネス右翼どもは、江沢民を闇からバックアップして、習近平の「終身皇帝」の野望を打ち壊す、中国国内の権力闘争を激化させればよい。

「トランプ万歳」「中国脅威論」「原発推進」「沖縄辺野古基地移転」「コロナ楽観論」「2類から5類へ」。エセ保守のビジネス右翼陣営は、社会事象をスローガン闘争に織り込んで、仲間内でウケる主張を共有したがる。

その結果、日本の将来が、見通しが立たず、暗い展望と成る。

偽物が「愛国者」を名乗るなよ。

アメリカ大統領の任期は長くとも、2期8年である。大統領サイクルアノマリーとは、政権与党が、将来の大統領選挙を見据えた、あからさまな景気操作をする傾向のこと。

大統領は、任期前半は紛争・不況・弱気相場を容認する。任期後半、特に4年目の選挙前は、人気獲得の為に、景気拡大政策を実施する。

過去、50年。ダウ平均と大統領サイクルとは、選挙翌年+9・2%・中間選挙の年+3・3%・選挙前年+16%・選挙の年+5・9%という相関関係が見られる。

アメリカ大統領も「大統領の椅子」をカネで買う。任期前半は「国民の痛みを伴う政策」を断行する。任期後半になれば、選挙の年を好景気にする為、景気刺激策を打つ。

過去、大統領の中間選挙の年に、S&Pは、その都度、下落・暴落している。

42年ルーズベルト政権・第二次世界大戦でマイナス17・8%下落。トルーマン政権・第二次大戦後でマイナス26・6%暴落。50年第二次トルーマン政権・朝鮮戦争でマイナス14%下落。62年ケネディ政権・キューバ危機でマイナス28・1%暴落。66年リンドンジョンソン政権・ベトナム戦争でマイナス23・7%暴落。78年カーター政権・マイナス15・2%下落。

94年クリントン政権・FRBの利上げによりメキシコ通貨危機でマイナス9・7%下落。98年第二次クリントン政権・ヘッジファンドLTCMロングタームキャピタルマネジメントの破綻でマイナス22・4%暴落。10年オバマ政権・イギリス石油会社BPがメキシコ湾で原油流出事故をきっかけにエネルギー株が大暴落でマイナス17・1%下落。14年第二次オバマ政権・FRBの量的緩和終了でマイナス9・8%下落。

景気拡大政策を採れない中間選挙の年は、地政学リスクに弱過ぎるのである。

ちなみに、全員、民主党政権の大統領である。

今年は、民主党大統領ジョーバイデンの中間選挙の年である。

FRBは、7%を突破したインフレ率を引き下げる為に。3月までに、量的金融緩和政策QEを終了し。今年、年度内4回の利上げを予定しており。財政引き締めのQT政策も控えている。

今まで、地政学リスクを無視して、右肩上がりだったアメリカ株価。阿保のトランプは「アメリカ株は絶好調だ」と手柄顔だった。全て、FRBの量的金融緩和政策QE・大企業社長の自社株買い・ロビンフッダーの金融市場参加という、金融市場にカネが溢れる状態からの株価上昇という、只の必然であった。

カネ余りのアメリカ金融市場に、流れ込む量的金融緩和マネーが止まる。何が起こるのか。世界中に出回っている、アメリカの投機マネーがアメリカに還る。中国・トルコ・韓国・日本、アメリカの投機マネーで、博打を打たれていた国の金融市場が崩れていく。

次回のバブル崩壊は、何故、リーマンショックの数十倍の被害が生じるのか。

リーマンショックは、サブプライムローン担保証券サブプライムモーゲージ債権CDOが人気過熱商品となり、CDOの破綻に賭ける保険商品クレジットデフォルトスワップCDSが、発明され。CDOとCDSとが、同時に売れて、バブル崩壊を起こした。

ウォール街の投資銀行・ヘッジファンド。ハゲタカどもは、リーマンショックの大失敗に学んでいない。反省せずに、その後、10年で、不動産ローン担保証券MBS・自動車版サブプライムローン担保証券ABS・レバレッジドローン担保証券CLO・ハイイールド債・ジャンク債。ローンを組ませた権利を商品化する得体の知れないペテン・詐欺商品デリバティブを、リーマンショック時の数十倍に増やしている。

債券市場は株式市場よりも遥かに市場規模が大きい。その債券市場から崩壊が発生するので、株式市場は共倒れに崩れ落ちる。市場規模の小さいコモディティ市場など、粉微塵に大崩壊する。

バブルが、何時弾けるかは、誰にも予測出来ない。敢えて、予測すれば、大統領サイクルアノマリーにより、今年、弾ける。一発勝負で弾けて終わらず、緩慢に二番底・三番底と底が抜け続ける。後、2~3年で、基軸通貨ドルの世界が大混乱に陥る。

「オミクロン株は重症化しないから、経済を回そう。」日本独自の悪あがきの特攻である。高齢者・既往症患者が、重症化・死亡しないような手だてが、先ず、必要である。

メルク社のモルヌピラビルよりも。ファイザー社のパクスロビドの方が、重症化・死亡リスクを回避する効果が89%と高い。塩野義製薬の「ペプチドタンパク」を利用した経口薬も治療効果が期待出来る。

boosterショットの実施・経口薬の確保・コロナ専門病棟の再編。何もしてこなかった厚労省には、「即座に、パクスロビド・塩野義経口薬の承認を下す判断」が義務である。

霞が関の利権確保の為に、高齢者を殺すことは許されない。

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