東京オリンピック・栄光への道のり

日刊ゲンダイデジタル。
真意はどこにあるのか。IOC(国際オリンピック委員会)は11日、オンライン形式の理事会後に記者会見を開き、バッハ会長が15~18日の日程で訪日することを正式に明らかにした。

新型コロナの感染拡大によって東京五輪が延期されて以降、バッハ会長が日本を訪れるのは初めて。会長を含むIOC関係者は事前に自主隔離し、移動は少人数でチャーター機を使うというのだが、「第3波」と言われる新型コロナによる感染拡大が続く最中の訪日は異例と言っていいだろう。

とりわけ欧州は感染者が急増している。IOC本部があるスイスでも、1日当たりの感染者が1万人を突破し、感染者は計19万人を超えた。バッハ会長の訪日目的はあくまで、「東京五輪・パラリンピックの感染予防策について、大会組織委員会などと協議するため」としているが、額面通りに受け取る競技関係者はいない。

「組織委内では、バッハ会長の訪日目的は開催に固執している『森喜朗会長を説得するため』とささやかれています。そもそも予防策を協議と言っているが、世界中から競技者、関係者、観客が来るのですから、どんなに対策しても感染拡大を防ぐのは不可能と言わざるを得ない。参加者が限られた特定種目の国際大会を開くこととはワケが違うのです。

東京五輪も少人数規模での開催が叫ばれ、観戦チケットの払い戻し申請の受け付けも始まりましたが、払い戻し件数が少なければ少人数規模にならないし、ボランティアはどうするのか。感染覚悟で参加してもらうというのでしょうか。

やりたい、やりたくないという感情論ではなく、あらゆる面で開催は難しい。これはバッハ会長も分かっているでしょう。それなのに森会長だけが『必ずできる。やればできる』と言い続けている。まるでインパール作戦を指揮した旧日本軍の牟田口中将のようで、感染爆発が起きたらどう責任を取るのか。日本国内の感染者だけでも病院は四苦八苦しているのに、世界各国の人が感染なんて状態になったら対応できませんよ」(競技団体関係者)。

バッハ会長は森会長に“引導”を渡すのか。

アメリカ大統領選挙、トランプの大規模支持者集会が新型コロナ感染者を激増させた。ブラックライブズマター運動VSミリシアの武力衝突も集団感染クラスターを産む。アメリカの新規感染者は1日1万人ずつ増加している。今日の感染者は18万人超である。陽性率・重症化・実効再生産数・ベッド数・医療現場の逼迫状態はどうなっているのか。

未だにマスク着用を頑なに誇示するトランプ。何時までもホワイトハウスに居座らせず、警備員が「ユーアーファイアード」と宣告し、叩き出せば良い。そのうえで、アメリカは都市封鎖ロックダウンに入るしかないだろう。トランプは「私の政権ではロックダウンしない」と未だに言い張っている。阿保だ。

トーマスバッハとジョンコーツが、いきなり「五輪中止宣告」を出すことは無いだろう。開催国に準備させておいて、強権的過ぎるからだ。むしろ、日本側東京都知事小池百合子・組織委員会会長森喜朗・五輪実行委員長安倍晋三からの「引き続き五輪開催に向けて、準備を万端に整えます。」との言質を取りに来るのだろう。

今、五輪中止が決定すれば経済損失は4兆6000億円を計上する。「コンパクト五輪で7000億円で開催出来る」嘘の台詞を皆が忘れている。損失も大きいから何とかして開催したい。小池百合子・森喜朗・安倍晋三の無理が祟りを産む。

バッハとコーツとは「五輪開催責任は中止案を受け入れなかった日本にある」という既成事実を造りたいのだ。そのうえで年を超えて、来年初頭、世界各国から「コロナの打撃から立ち直れない。選手団を派遣出来ない。」との悲鳴・苦情がIOCに寄せられる。IOCとしては「全ての責任は開催国の日本にある」と言い逃れしたいのである。

バッハとコーツとの来日は、そういう意味を持つ。

大統領選挙の影に隠れる。FRBの無制限の量的金融緩和は継続されているのか。当初オクトーバーサプライズに充てられた200兆円の緊急経済対策費も立ち消えに成っている。FRBが「QE4」を止める時が、世界の金融バブルが大崩壊する時である。

年末から来年春頃まで、アメリカの金融市場の動きも眺めたい。オリンピックも金融市場も、参加しなくても眺めるだけで楽しめるイベントである。

真に「アスリートファースト」を叫ぶのであれば。コロナ禍の世界で参加できない選手もいるのに五輪断行するという姿勢の日本政府を攻撃すべきだ。「スポーツの祭典」を謳いながら選手にウォーミングアップの猶予も与えない五輪スケジュールを攻撃すべきだ。「平和の祭典」を謳いながら、開催国日本に職を失い、生活苦に喘ぐ、生活困窮者が大勢居る。2週間のお祭りよりも、生活困窮者を救う方が大切なのではないか。スポーツマンシップの公正・公平。「オリンピックを開催するカネが有るなら、生活困窮者を救え。医療・教育・福祉にカネを掛けろ。」最もな主張となる。

「オリンピックは要らない」と書き続けてきた。本当に要らない局面に、突入した気がする。

(ブルームバーグ):ヘッジファンドマネジャーは運用成績が振るわなかった時、市場のボラティリティー(変動性)が低かったことを口実にするのが常だった。しかし今年はこの言い訳は通らない見通しだ。

高ボラティリティーで銘柄間の連動が少ない今年の市場は利益を生みやすいはずだがヘッジファンド業界の大半は不振にあえいでおり、顧客の忍耐は限界を迎えている。
ヘッジファンドに投資するクリアブルック・グローバル・アドバイザーズのティム・ウン最高投資責任者(CIO)は、「ファンダメンタルズに依存するボトムアップ戦略の運用者ならどの資産クラスでも、今年これまでは好調だったはずだ。長年望んでいた全ての条件が存在する」と指摘した。

ブルームバーグ・ヘッジファンド指数によれば、3兆3000億ドル(約347兆円)規模のヘッジファンド業界の年初から10月末までのリターンはプラス0.4%と、株式と債券の指標を下回った。ヘッジファンド・リサーチ(HFR)の指数は4%余りのマイナスと、さらに悪い数字となっている。

運用成績最上位のファンドはブレバン・ハワード・アセット・マネジメントやコーチュー・マネジメント。一方、最も悪かったのはブリッジウォーター・アソシエーツで、旗艦ファンドの11月5日までのリターンはマイナス19%だった。

ウェルズ・ファーゴの資産運用部門、ウェルズ・ファーゴ・プライベート・ウェルス・マネジメントのアダム・タバックCIOは、「ヘッジファンドを信頼するのは一段と難しくなっている」と指摘。「多くはダウンサイドのリスクへの備えが不十分であり、アップサイドへの投資が足りないものもある」と説明した。

同氏はヘッジファンドを勧めるハードルは高くなったものの、顧客ポートフォリオからヘッジファンド投資を排除してはいないと発言。その一方で、ファンドの閉鎖は増えるだろうとし、「適者生存、群れの間引きだ」と指摘した。

(ブルームバーグ): ヘッジファンドは今週の市場混乱から手痛い教訓を学んだ。流れは変わるということだ。

新型コロナウイルスのワクチンについて有望なニュースが出たことで、株式市場では9、10両日に急激なローテーションが起こった。ゴールドマン・サックス・グループのプライムブローカー部門がまとめたデータによれば、割安度やキャッシュフローなど企業のファンダメンタルズに基づいてロングやショートのポジションを取っていたファンドは、アルファ(ベンチマークを上回るリターン)が3月以来の大幅な縮小となった。
9日に相場の勝ち組と負け組が記録的なスピードで入れ替わったためだ。ズーム・ビデオ・コミュニケーションズやアマゾン・ドット・コムのように外出自粛が追い風となって上昇していた銘柄は売られ、航空株や金融株など新型コロナ流行で下落していた銘柄が上げを主導した。

モメンタム株の指標であるダウ・ジョーンズUSシーマティック・マーケット・ニュートラル・モメンタム指数は9、10両日に16%下落。その後反発したが前週末比でまだ11%安い。

今週のモメンタム株の不調は、勝ち組が永久に勝ち続けると考えていたファンドに厳しい現実を突き付けた。ファンダメンタル・ヘッジファンドのモメンタム株へのエクスポージャーは先週末時点で、5年間のレンジの98パーセンタイルの水準にあった。ゴールドマンのデータが示した。こうしたファンドのアルファは9、10の2営業日で2ポイント低下した。

マーケットトレンドとボラティリティーに基づいて投資するヘッジファンドが大きな打撃を受けたほか、規模やバリューなど多数の投資ファクターが数十年ぶりのスピードで反転し、ファンドのリターンを台無しにした。ゴールドマンの計算によれば、こうしたファンドが今年積み上げてきたアルファは9、10両日にほぼ消失した。

日刊ゲンダイデジタル。
米製薬大手ファイザー社が開発した新型コロナウイルスのワクチンが話題だ。「90%の有効性」との触れ込みで、日本政府は来年6月までに6000万人分(1億2000万回)の供給を受けることで同社と合意した。

第3波への懸念が高まる中、救世主のように出現したワクチンだが、普及には重大な課題もある。マイナス70度以下の「超低温」で保存しなければならないのだ。

「通常、これまでのワクチンは冷凍保存はしません」と言うのは、ハーバード大学院卒で医学博士・作家の左門新氏(元WHO専門委員)だ。こう続ける。

「冷凍すると、変質してしまうというのが医学界の常識です。だから大学などの研究室に冷凍庫はあっても、病院には患者に注射するワクチンを保存する冷凍庫はありません。ファイザー社のワクチンは注射の際、冷蔵庫の中で解凍することになるはず。取り扱うハードルが高い特殊なワクチンと言えるでしょう」。

ファイザー社によると、冷蔵庫(2~8度)の保存期限は5日間。それまではマイナス70度以下の環境が必要だ。この程度の超低温を保つフリーザーを造っている会社は日本にも数社ある。そのひとつが大阪市の「フクシマガリレイ」だ。医療理化学機器として超低温フリーザーを7種類製造。価格は125万円から。最高額230万円の製品は内容量717リットルだ。 「4、5年前に開発し、主に大学や製薬会社の研究室に納入しています。マイナス85度までの超低温が可能です」(同社経営企画グループ長の高田芳博氏)。

左門氏によると、ワクチンは開発後、数年間はライセンス生産の形を取らないため、国内の製薬会社が製造する可能性は低い。ファイザー社から飛行機などで運ぶことになるが、前出の高田氏は「弊社のフリーザーを使えば、超低温でワクチンを空輸することができると思います」という。

韓国では9月に低温保管に失敗したインフルエンザワクチンを324人に誤って接種する事件が起きた。幸い、異常反応などの被害は出なかったが、ワクチンの扱いには細心の注意が必要だ。

「保存方法を誤ると、予防効果がかなり低下するか、発熱などの副障害が増えることがある。ただ、ファイザー社が言う『マイナス70度』は大げさな数字かもしれません。『マイナス50度だと効果を保証しません』という程度で、実際は20度くらいの違いでは遜色ないかもしれませんね」(左門新氏)。

とはいえ、数多くの超低温フリーザーが必要になるのは事実。これからメーカーは大忙しだ。

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