日経株価3万円ブルームバーグfakeニュース

ブルームバーグ。
チャート分析の観点から、日経平均株価に希少な強気シグナルが接近している。過去20年で2回表れた月足のゴールデンクロス(GC)が完成すると、現在の価格から2割高の2万9000円付近までの上昇が視野に入るとの見方がある。
投資家の平均売買コストや株価の傾向を示す移動平均線で、上向きの短期線が同じく上向きの長期線を突き抜けるGCは、上昇相場入りを確認する一つの目安。12カ月線と24カ月線のGCは、数年単位のトレンドを判断するのに有効とされる。
日経平均の月足チャートは、23日時点で12カ月移動線が2万2031円、24カ月線が同2万2061円。いちよし証券によると、ともに上向きでの両線のGCは1980年代以降で4回出現。ピークになった96年のケースを除けば、83年、04年、13年の3回は大幅上昇につながった。
いちよし証券投資情報部の高橋幸洋課長は「GCには18年10月高値を上回ることが必要。移動平均線の推移から計算すれば、レンジ相場でも来月にはほぼ確実に発生しそう」と語る。その後の上昇率はばらつくが「経験則では25%程度の上昇で、2万9000円程度があってもおかしくない」という。
髙橋氏は、過去にはGC完成からその後の高値まで平均で30カ月続いたことで「22年8月までは上昇トレンドを形成する可能性がある」と読む。過去の例に照らせばGC出現後のトレンドは60カ月線(同2万0225円)を割り込むまで崩れないと推測する。
また、三菱UFJモルガン・スタンレー証券の宮田直彦チーフ・テクニカルアナリストは、12カ月線と24カ月線のGCはまれなので「だましも少ない」という。その上でエリオット分析で最強の強気局面とされるサード・オブ・サードの中でシグナルが点灯する今回は、「最低2万8000円、来年度3万円トライも夢ではない」とみる。
もっとも、昨年秋からの急上昇で警戒が必要だと話すのは東海東京調査センターの中村貴司シニアストラテジストだ。中村氏によると、市場関係者の長期見通しはファンダメンタルズとテクニカルが完全に分断されていて、現在はテクニカルが先行した状態。「抱えるリスクも大きく、ファンダメンタルズの裏付けが出てこなければ、一度下向くと下げが大きくなるかもれしない」と用心を促す。
今年発生するバブル崩壊は債権バブルか借金バブルか。
今、世界中に金融派生商品・デリバティブが6京6000兆円、シャドーバンキングが2京4000兆円、国・企業・個人の借金の総額が2京7400兆円。
実体の無い得体の知れないカネが世界を覆っている。
トランプは「アメリカは強さを取り戻した経済は絶好調だ」と大ボラを吹く。
トランプの発行するアメリカ国債を買い支えるのは日本であり、アメリカの中小企業のレバレッジドローン・CLOを買い支えるのは農林中金・三菱UFJ・ゆうちょ銀行・地方銀行等の日本の金融機関である。
アメリカの5000兆円を超える借金の多くを日本に頼りながら「強いアメリカを取り戻した」と強弁するトランプの厚かましさ・厚顔無恥・傲岸不遜は気に喰わない。
債権市場・借金バブル、同時に崩壊する危険性も大きい。
逆イールド・ヒンデンブルグオーメン・ヒストリカルDI・騰落レシオ・みずほクラッシュ指数・CAPEレシオ・バフェット指数。
暴落サインを探しているのは日本の個人投資家を金融市場から逃がす手伝いである。
どの暴落サインが、どう点灯したら、何時、どのくらいの恐怖の金融恐慌が起きるのかを探っている。
現在、日経株価24000円は昨年9月からウォール街の海外勢、ゴールドマンサックス・クレディスイス・JPモルガン・オランダ銀行・ドイツ銀行・シティグループが買い越し・買い増した金額である。
今年に入って、分が悪い海外勢は売り越しに転じている。
今年、民主党から大統領選挙に出馬するブルームバーグがウォール街に「貸しを造る」目的で「ゴールドクロスで日経株価が30000円に騰がる」というfakeニュースを掲載する。
債券市場の規模は株式市場よりも遥かに大きい。
債権市場が暴落したら株式市場・コモデティ市場など粉みじんに総崩れとなる。
株価チャートのテクニカル分析など役立たずである。
噓から出た実で日経株価が3000円になったとしよう。
20・21年五輪後不況、22年行政代執行で解体が必要な無人建築の爆増、23年タワマンの廃墟化、24年後継者不足による中小企業の黒字倒産、25年団塊の世代の後期高齢者化・修理人不在のスパコンの故障続発。
1年ごとに直面する課題ではない。
前倒しして既に幾つかが社会問題化している。
後5年で問題は更に複雑に絡み合い、日本社会の未来はとてつもなく暗い。
株価だけ騰がるなど、悪いジョークでしかない。
ブルームバーグのオーナーが権力欲しさに権力に媚を売るなら、新聞記者をAIに置き換えろ。
人間が記事を書く必要は無いね。
WIRED。
中国でインフルエンザに似た症状が相次いで発生していることを世界保健機関(WHO)が公表したのは、1月9日のことだった。湖北省武漢市で肺炎の集団発生が報告されており、感染源は武漢の「華南海鮮卸売市場」で販売されていた生きた動物の可能性があると報告されたのである。
急拡大する「恐ろしいシナリオ」を、科学者たちは“予見”している。
このWHOの公表より早い1月6日に情報を流していたのが、米国の疾病管理予防センター(CDC)だった。ところが、それよりさらに早い12月31日に今回のアウトブレイク(集団感染)を知らせていたのが、カナダの健康モニタリングプラットフォーム「BlueDot」である。
BlueDotは、人工知能(AI)によるアルゴリズムを利用したシステムだ。外国語での報道や動植物の病気に関するネットワーク、そして公式発表を精査した結果を基に、今回のアウトブレイクが発生した武漢市のような“危険地帯”を回避するようクライアントに事前に警告する。
ウイルスなどのアウトブレイクは時間との戦いだ。中国の当局は病気や大気汚染、自然災害に関しては口を閉ざし、情報を公表してこなかった実績がある。しかし、WHOやCDCの担当者らは疾病をモニタリングするために、口が堅い中国当局の情報を当てにする必要がある。
こうした状況では、AIのほうが情報を素早く収集できるかもしれない。BlueDotの創業者兼最高経営責任者(CEO)であるカムラン・カーンは、「政府はタイミングよく情報を提供しないことがあります」と語る。「BlueDotはアウトブレイクの可能性を伝えるニュースや、何らかの異常な出来事が発生していることを示す小さなつぶやきやフォーラム、ブログを抽出できるのです」。
海外への感染を正確に予測。
カーンによると、BlueDotのアルゴリズムではソーシャルメディアの投稿は使用していない。というのも、データが乱雑すぎるのだという。
しかし、カーンには奥の手がある。全世界の航空会社の発券データを利用するのだ。発券データは感染した住民がいつどこへ向かうのかを予測するうえで役立つ。そして同社のアルゴリズムは、新型コロナウイルスが最初に出現してから数日後に、武漢からバンコク、ソウル、台北、東京に広がることになると正確に予測した。
カーンは2003年にSARS(重症急性呼吸器症候群)が流行した際に、カナダのトロントの病院で感染症の専門家として働いていた。そして、病気を追跡できるより優れた手段を見つけたいと強く願ったのだ。
SARSウイルスの流行は中国の地方都市で始まり、香港を経由してトロントへと拡大し、トロントでは44人の死者が出た。新型コロナウイルスのアウトブレイクについてカーンは、「まさに既視感を感じています」と語る。「わたしは2003年にトロントがSARSウイルスの勢いに打ちのめされ、病院機能がまひする様子を目撃しました。そしてわたしも、精神的にも肉体的にも疲弊してしまいました。そして、『二度と同じことを繰り返さないようにしよう』と思ったのです」。
予測プログラムをいくつかテストしたあと、カーンは2014年にBlueDotを立ち上げ、ヴェンチャー投資家から940万ドルの資金を調達した。同社には現時点で医師やプログラマーからなる40人の従業員がおり、自然言語処理と機械学習の手法によって65カ国語の報道や航空会社のデータ、動物疾病の発生報告を選別する疾病監視分析プログラムを開発している。
「自然言語処理と機械学習を使用して予測エンジンをトレーニングしています。その結果、モンゴルでいま起きているのは炭疽菌(アンスラックス)のアウトブレイクなのか、それともヘヴィメタルバンド『アンスラックス』の再結成なのかを識別できるまでになりました」とカーンは説明する。
カーンの説明によると、自動データ選別が完了すると、次に人間が分析する。科学的な観点から納得のいく結論であると疫学者が確認したあと、レポートは政府、企業、公衆衛生のクライアントに送られる。
BlueDotのレポートはその後、感染患者の移動先となりうる数十カ国(米国およびカナダを含む)の公衆衛生当局、航空会社、および最前線の病院に送られる。BlueDotはデータを一般販売していないが、現在その実現に向けて取り組んでいるという。
中国の当局が考えるより大規模な流行。
公衆衛生当局を迂回する方法に目を付けたのは、実はBlueDotが最初ではない。インフルエンザの流行を予測するAIプログラム「Google Flu Trends」は、2013年のインフルエンザシーズンの深刻さを140パーセント過小評価したあと、サーヴィスの提供を打ち切っている。
BlueDotは「Google Flu Trends」よりも優れた成果を出したいと考えている。BlueDotは医学誌『ランセット』に発表した論文で、南フロリダにおけるジカウイルスのアウトブレイク発生地域の予測に成功している。
BlueDotが今回のアウトブレイクで予測に成功したかどうかは、まだわからない。一方で、2002年にSARSのアウトブレイクを数カ月にわたって隠し続けた過去を持つ中国当局だが、今回の対応はSARSのときよりも迅速だと評価する公衆衛生専門家もいる。
「今回のアウトブレイクは、恐らく中国の公衆衛生当局がこれまで認めた規模よりもはるかに大きいものです」と、2017年と18年に隔離されたエボラ出血熱患者の治療に当たったネブラスカ大学医療センターの感染症専門医ジェームズ・ローラーは指摘する。「ある1週間に中国から出国した旅行者の数とそのなかにいる感染者の推定割合をざっと計算しただけでも、すごい人数です」
『ニューヨーク・タイムズ』は1月24日、中国ではこれまでに3,500万人が暮らす8都市が封鎖されていると伝えている。『ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル』の報道によると、感染の中心地である武漢市ではマスクや消毒剤などの医療用品が足りなくなり、病院が患者を拒否しているという。
ネブラスカ大学のローラーをはじめとして、中国からの旅行者が他国で感染症の症状を示すにつれて、新型コロナウイルスのアウトブレイクは拡大し続けると考える専門家もいる。流行の収束までに、感染による発病者が何人出て、死者が何人出るのかはまだわからないとローラーは言う。
病気のまん延を止めるには、公衆衛生当局が真実を伝える必要があるだけでなく、素早く伝える必要がある。だが当面は、AIを活用する疫学者たちに公衆衛生当局の代わりを務めてもらう価値はあるかもしれない。

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