新型コロナ感染死亡は寿命ではない

東京都検査数。11日3578件・11日4430件・12日1万8438件・13日1万5576件・14日1万4108件・15日1万4361件・16日8104件・17日3162件・18日1万6231件・19日1万3478件・20日1万1952件・21日1万1602件・22日1万2020件・23日6629件・24日2074件・25日1万3092件・26日1万606件・27日9382件。

大阪・神奈川・東京が「保健所の機能がパンクして濃厚接触者を追跡出来なくなった」を言い訳に、PCR検査を減らす。

現在、夜の街感染は減少し、家庭内感染に移行し、高齢者介護施設が感染の主流と成ってしまった。昨年4月イタリアロンバルディアでは医療崩壊が報道され、イギリス・アメリカでは高齢者介護施設での集団感染クラスターが報道されていた。日本は見事に欧米の1年後を進む。

ニュージーランド・台湾・バーレーン・タイ・シンガポール・ベトナム、何故、成功国の新型コロナ対策に学ばないのか。

ワイドショーは精神分裂病であり、「感染者数に一喜一憂しない」とスローガンを叫びながら、3時マタギで「東京の本日の新規感染者数は如何か」を番組の柱としている。

検査も受けられず、自宅で変死して、死後、PCR検査で陽性確認出来た悲劇が195件、内75件は今年1月の悲劇である。全国で新型コロナ変死は、もっと件数が多いだろう。だから、超過死亡の調査が必要なのである。

自宅で治療先を調整して貰い待機する新型コロナ患者が6日には1万7484人、13日には1・7倍増えて3万208人。29日現在、何万人の自宅療養者が居るのだろう。だから、宿泊療養施設の確保が大切なのである。

コロナ死亡者数を減らす為には、「入院拒否・病院脱走で過料30万円。時短要請拒否で過料30万円。患者の受け入れ拒否で病院名公表。」などの罰則規定は有能では無い。

新型ウィルスをコントロールすることが肝要である。無症状患者が感染拡大させるのだから「検査・隔離・治療」しかないのである。

厚労省・国立感染症研究所の天下り先が保健所である。PCR検査を保健所の利権として、民間に規制緩和させない。

医療崩壊しても高齢者介護施設クラスターが多発しても、PCR検査数は減らしていく。日本の新型コロナ対策は世界57位くらいだろう。

習近平の国賓来日・春節の中国人インバウンド需要・五輪開催・ゴーツー事業・外国人ビジネス入国者受け入れ・PCR検査検査抑制。政府は利権絡みで、その都度、判断を誤ってきた。病院や国民に罰則規定を押し付ける前に、責任取って内閣総辞職くらいの、けじめを付けて貰いたい。

菅義偉の薄ら禿が、悩みに悩んで全力で取り組んでいるのなら、只の無能である。ワクチンも全く間に合わない。兵庫のJCRファーマでアストラゼネカワクチンの原液6000万本分を製造する運びとなる。今日、アストラゼネカワクチンは65歳以上の高齢者には接種が相応しくないと報じられる。高齢者・基礎疾患を持つ病人が死亡する新型ウィルス。高齢者に使用出来ないワクチンが日本で製造される。

「感染症対策と経済活動の両立」を国民に丸投げしてきた安倍菅政府の新型コロナウィルスに負け続ける1年であった。英国型変異ウィルス・南アフリカ型変異ウィルス・ブラジル型変異ウィルス。日本で確認された変異型ウィルス患者は56人である。国立感染症研究所は粉骨砕身で変異型ウィルスの現状分析に取り組んで貰いたい。

集団感染クラスターを減らす為には「検査・隔離・治療」の徹底しかない。政府がやってこなかったPCR検査数の拡充に、早期に取り組むべきである。

日刊ゲンダイデジタル。
どこが「日本モデル」(©安倍晋三)なのか。日本は上位30にも入っていなかった。

オーストラリアの有力シンクタンク「ローウィー研究所」が28日、世界98カ国と地域が、新型コロナにどの程度うまく対応できたかを0~100で指数化し、ランキングにまとめた。

トップはニュージーランド、2位以下はベトナム、台湾、タイ、キプロスとつづき、日本は情けないことに45位だった。感染者数と死者数が世界最多のアメリカは94位、ヨーロッパで最も死者数が多いイギリスは66位、最下位はブラジルだった。アジア太平洋勢がトップ10のうち6カ国・地域を占めた。

調査は、公表データを基に感染者数、死者数、人口100万人当たりの感染者数と死者数、検査数、陽性率など6項目を評価。中国は公開データが少ないため調査対象からはずしている。

首位のニュージーランドは、感染者は累計2299人、死者25人、1月28日の新規感染者は5人となっている。昨年5月2日から「102日間連続」で国内の新規感染者ゼロを記録。国境封鎖と検査の徹底、早期の厳格なロックダウンによって、おおむね水際で止めることができたという。ただ、1月25日、数カ月ぶりに市中感染が発生している。

■「強権」に優位性なし  調査結果が意外だったのは、「強権国家」よりも「民主国家」の方が、点数が高かったことだ。「民主主義」の平均は50・8、「強権体制」49・2だった。日本国内には、「私権制限しやすい独裁国家の方がコロナ対策をしやすい」との声があるが関係なかった。経済レベルも、ほとんど関係なかった。

ローウィー研究所は、「経済発展レベルや政治体制の違いによるランキングへの影響は想定より小さかった」と指摘。指導者への市民の信頼、指導者による適切な国家運営が重要と分析している。調査結果について、医療ガバナンス研究所理事長の上昌広氏はこう言う。

「医学雑誌ランセットは、国家として成長している国の方がコロナ対策がうまくいっている、と分析しています。もし、中国が調査対象だったらトップだったでしょう。また、ランセットの編集長は、中国を見習った国の対策は成功していると評価しています。日本もイデオロギーにこだわらず、中国をお手本にしていれば、ここまで感染が広がらなかった可能性があります」。

ただでさえ下り坂の日本は、コロナ禍でさらに打撃を受けている。

ニュースソクラ。
感染爆発と医療崩壊を引き起こしたという自覚も反省もないのだろう。1月7日の菅義偉首相の会見での言葉に、耳を疑った。「いま一度、ご協力を賜りますことをお願いして、私からのあいさつとさせていただきます」。

あいさつですか。一国の首相がまるで他人事だ。「1カ月後には必ず事態を改善させる。内閣総理大臣として、感染拡大防止をするために全力を尽くし、ありとあらゆる方策を講じてまいります」という決意もむなしい。

昨年10月の所信表明で「爆発的な感染は絶対に防ぎ、国民の命と健康を守り抜きます。その上で、社会経済活動を再開して、経済を回復してまいります」と宣言したはずだった。実際は、見通しが甘いままGoToを12月まで漫然と継続。あわててブレーキを踏んだが、時すでに遅し。1月7日に緊急事態宣言を首都圏の1都3県に発令したのに続き、6日後には福岡や大阪など7府県を追加した。

感染爆発を防いでから、経済回復の順番のはずではなかったか。官邸官僚は、所信表明の原稿を渡して思い出させてあげて欲しい。現状は、感染者数が過去最多を更新し続け、日々、多くの国民が亡くなっている。菅首相が年始に述べることは、後手後手の対応に終始し、事態を深刻化させたことへの、真摯な反省とお詫びではなかったか。

だが、13日の会見では記者から「見通しが甘かったのでは」と問われると、「大阪の感染者が急増したのは直前で、専門家からもよく原因を分析をすべきだ、という評価だった」と、判断の遅れを専門家に転嫁するような答弁をした。

相変わらずだ。官房長官時代から菅氏の会見に出ていてわかるのは、絶対に自分の非を認めないということだ。民間企業でも省庁でも、責任転嫁に長けた人物は一定数いる。でも、そんな人物がトップに立てば経営は傾き、組織は弱る。いま、日本も危機にある。

総裁選の立候補会見で「自助」を掲げた菅首相だが、政治判断のミスを挽回するためには、専門家など周囲のサポート=共助が不可欠だろう。だが、聞く耳がなければ周囲も支えようがない。「感染拡大の原因」と指摘され続けたGoToに執着し、これまで政府の分科会の尾見茂会長らに見直しを求められても首を縦に振らなかった。

例えば、昨年11月20日、政府の分科会では委員が「ステージ3の段階に入りつつある都道府県がある」と踏み込んで発言した。官邸を擁護する発言も目立っていた尾身会長もこの時は、危機感が勝ったのだろう。「GoToトラベルは、早急に見直しをしてほしい。政府の英断を心からお願い申し上げる」と、懇願に近いメッセージを発した。

しかし、感染拡大が続く12月1日。小池百合子都知事との会談後、菅首相が官邸で報道陣に発したのは「65歳以上の高齢者はGoToを自粛してほしい」という要請だけだった。

これだけではない。全国を対象にGoTo一時停止を発表した直後、菅首相は二階俊博幹事長に誘われ、ソフトバンクの王貞治会長や俳優の杉良太郎さんらが出席したステーキ会食の忘年会に向かった。出席者は全員、菅氏が自粛を求めた65歳以上の高齢者ばかりだった。

これでは、国民も感染予防に本気になるはずもない。結局、全国でのGoTo停止を発表したのは、尾見会長の訴えから3週間も過ぎた12月14日。あまりにも決断が遅かった。17日には全国の感染者数が過去最多を更新し、大晦日には全国で計4520人と急増。1月6日には7533人に達し、重傷者も796人になった。

ブレーキを踏むべき時に、アクセルを踏み続けた菅首相の判断の誤りのツケがいま、一挙に全国で吹き荒れている。結局、GoTo停止の効果は限定的で、かえって旅館や旅行業界に混乱を招いた。判断の遅れはこの後、増幅されて経済活動に響くだろう。

菅首相に主体性がなく場当たり的なのは、「後見人」の二階俊博幹事長の強い意向があったため、と言われている。会食についても「あいさつだけのつもりだったが、引き留められた」と周囲にこぼしたという。これでは、だれが首相なのかわからない。

結局、GoTo停止に踏み切ったのは、内閣支持率の急落が要因だ。12月12日の毎日新聞の世論調査では、支持率が57%から40%に急落し、不支持が支持を初めて超えた。NHKの世論調査でも支持率は56%から42%と急落した。医療崩壊のリスクや感染拡大の危機感を持ったからではない。政治判断の「ものさし」が保身であることを表している。

これは、昨年発覚した日本学術会議の推薦候補者の任命拒否問題にも通じる。一度決めた判断を覆せば、自分の政治力が削がれるという理屈を優先し、論理的・科学的な根拠や理由はわきに追いやられている。

論理や知見を受け入れない頑迷さ、愚鈍な判断力などを総合的・俯瞰(ふかん)的にみれば、一国のリーダーとしての能力に欠けるのは明らかだ。しかも、人事で強権をふるってきたせいで、周囲も怖くて忠言できないでいる。

さらに緊急事態宣言の発出を国会に報告した1月7日の衆参議院の議員運営委員会でも、野党は菅首相の出席を求めたが、与党は菅首相の出席を拒否、代わりに西村康稔・経済再生担当相を出席させた。特措法32条では、緊急事態宣言の報告を行うのは、対策本部長である首相なはずだが、宣言を出すという重要な報告の場に国のトップがなぜ、国会で自らの言葉で説明できないのか。

自省してみてほしい。昼間に外出自粛が広がらないのも、発熱で4日間自宅待機するのも、国民に自粛を求めつつ自分は大人数で会食しても、「国民の誤解」などと責任を押しつけてきた。そんな連中の話を誰が聞くだろうか。結局は保身なのだ。

誰も失敗はする。菅首相にはまず、感染爆発と医療崩壊が起きている現実を直視した上で、後手に回った責任を認め、まず反省の言葉を口にするべきだろう。それから、野党を含め、周囲の助けと国民の協力を得るのが物事の順序だ。

菅首相に聞きたい。ここで国民に頭を下げずにいつ下げるのか。すでに国民は見限りつつある。本気で協力を求めなければ、政権はあとがないだろう。もう手遅れかもしれないが、愚政の道連れになるのはまっぴら御免だ。

日刊ゲンダイデジタル。
緊急事態宣言が発令されてから3週間が経ったが、新型コロナの感染者数は依然、高水準。心配なのが、変異株が国内に広がりつつあることだ。英国の研究などで変異株の正体が見えてきた。想像以上にやっかいなウイルスだ。

世界の1日当たりの感染者数は50万~60万人前後と高い水準が続く。死者数は26日、1万8000人を超え、1日当たりとして過去最多となった。変異株が寄与していることは間違いない。

WHO(世界保健機関)によると、英国型変異株は70の国と地域に、南アフリカ型は31の国と地域で確認されている。英国型は従来型より、感染力は30~70%強く、致死率は30~40%高い可能性がある。南ア型も1.5倍の感染力が指摘されている。

英国家統計局の調査によると、英国型はせきや倦怠感など症状が出やすいことが分かった。英ウォーリック大学のウイルス学者、ローレンス・ヤング教授は声明で「この変異株は、従来型に比べて感染力が高く、ウイルス量が多い。つまり増殖力が高いようだ。そのため体内でより広い範囲に感染が拡大し、従来型よりもせきや筋肉痛、倦怠感などの症状が出やすくなる可能性がある」と指摘している。従来型は、無症状の感染者も多かったが、変異株は発症しやすいようだ。

英バーミンガム大の研究チームによると、英国型の感染者の検体からは、従来型より10~100倍のウイルス量が検出されているという。100倍ものウイルスが体内で暴れれば、体のあちこちで症状が出るのもうなずける。

同時感染、新株誕生の温床に。
加えて、同時感染により、もっと強烈な変異株が誕生する懸念がある。

ブラジル南部リオグランデドスル州のフィーバレ大生命工学研究所は26日、同州で2種類の新型コロナウイルスに同時感染したケース2件を発表した。2人とも重症には至らなかったという。ハーバード大学院卒で医学博士・作家の左門新氏(元WHO専門委員)がこう言う。

「体内に2つの異なるウイルスが存在すると、お互いの遺伝子を交換し合って、新たな変異ウイルスを生み出す温床になります。現在の変異ウイルスよりも、さらに感染力が強くなったり、致死率がアップしたウイルスが発生する可能性も否定できません」。

28日、埼玉の男女3人の変異株感染が確認された。

英国滞在歴はなく、25日に変異株の感染が確認された東京の男性と接触があった。市中感染が広がっている可能性がある。変異株の感染者は56人になった。

変異株は出現判明から2~3カ月後に主流になるとされる。国内の最初の判明は昨年末。3月ごろ、やっかいな変異株が猛威を振るうことになるのか。

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