投資顧問詐欺師に騙されないよう気をつけてください

小林よしのりは「コロナ死亡は寿命だ」と言い張る。小林よしのりは昔「個よりも公を優先する」と主張していた。高齢者・基礎疾患を持つ病人が、高熱・重い倦怠・呼吸困難という苦しい最後を遂げるのが「寿命」か。

「個よりも公」が優先されるなら、日本人全員が高齢者・基礎疾患を持つ病人の命を護る為に、新型コロナを怖がり、「伝染させない為に、かからない。」と気を引き締める局面である。小林よしのりは「ゴーマニズム宣言中流絶滅」で「ワシは散々警告してきた。もう知らん。」と既得権高齢者の仲間入り宣言をした。保守・愛国の憂国を気取っても、国士に成れないオワコンの漫画家である。

19年8月14日、10年国債と2年国債の逆イールドが発生した。過去50年間、逆イールドが発生すると、必ず金融バブルが崩壊してきた。崩壊は逆イールドが発生してから3か月から1年6か月以内に発生する。今日で1年5カ月と成り、後1か月で発生締め切りである。

19年9月には、銀行・保険会社・機関投資家が国債を担保にして短期間、現金を調達するレポ市場の金利が、リーマンショック以来の暴騰を見せた。NY連邦準備銀行が資金を注入して、金利暴騰を調整した。そのまま、資金注入は継続しFRBの「隠れQE4」となる。

年明け、新型コロナが来襲し、「隠れQE4」から「無制限の量的金融緩和政策」となる。トランプの「株価は絶好調だ」は実態経済と乖離した「無制限の量的金融緩和政策」で吊り上げられた株高が正体である。

投資顧問詐欺師のテクニカル分析。過去の経験則アノマリー、企業の売り上げの決算ボラティリティ、相場の強弱の勢いを示す指標モメンタム、市場企業の経済指数ファンダメンタル、投資家の心理感情センチメント。実態経済と乖離した市場では通用しない。

ビットコイン・ノックアウトオプション・原油先物などコモディティ商品を勧める投資顧問詐欺師は2流3流である。

投資顧問詐欺師のチャート分析。5日・25日移動平均線、ボリンジャーバンドプラス1σマイナス1σ、エリオット波動、たくり足・ローソク足・つつみ足、ゴールデンクロス、バンドウォーク上昇下降。実態経済と乖離した市場では通用しない。

逆イールドが発生したので探し始めた暴落指標。ヒンデンブルグオーメン、恐怖指数、騰落レシオ、ヒストリカルDI、CAPEレシオ、みずほクラッシュ指数、バフェット指数。実態経済と乖離した市場では通用しない。

FRBの「隠れQE4」に先駆けて、日本はアベノミクスで異次元の金融緩和を実施していた。日銀・FRB・ECB・イギリス中央銀行。世界4大中央銀行が、挙って「量的金融緩和政策」を実施しているから、世界の金融バブルが生じ、株高が続く。

米中貿易戦争・米イラン地政学リスク・大統領選挙・ワクチン完成・接種開始。株価の上昇下落に影響すると観られたイベントは、全て外れてきた。

実態経済と乖離した金融バブルは、何時弾けるのか。ワクチンが普及し、パンデミックが抑えられ、経済活動が再開する時である。異次元の量的金融緩和政策で、副作用のバランスシートの偏り・借金の増大・インフレ懸念が生じた。財政引き締めの必要がある。

中央銀行が量的金融緩和政策を止める時が、世界金融バブル崩壊が始まる時である。FRBが「金融引き締め」を発表した時点で、株価が下落を開始する。

或いは中国の様に、実態経済が止まった期間が長すぎて、大企業が倒産する。企業が発行した社債が、連鎖してデフォルト破綻する。債券市場が崩落を始めれば、規模の小さい株式市場は釣られて崩落する。

二番底・三番底・大底は、そう遠くない。

いかさま相場の渦中で。JPモルガンチェース・バンクオブアメリカ・シティグループ・ウェルズファーゴ。ゴールドマンサックス・クレディスイス・モルガンスタンレー・ドイツ銀行・メリルリンチ。やりたい放題に利益を上げた。ロビンフッダーの大群もヘッジファンドを負かす勢いである。ロビンフッダーの売買データはロビンフッド証券がヘッジファンドに売り渡している。孫正義が喰った様に、ロビンフッダーはヘッジファンドに喰われて終わる。

リーマンショック時はベアースターンズ・リーマンブラザーズ2行倒産だった。次回の金融バブル崩壊では、ハゲタカどもに鉄槌が下って欲しい。

くれぐれも投資顧問詐欺師に騙されて落ちてくるナイフを掴まない様に、気を付けて頂きたい。

フォーブス。
新型コロナウイルス感染症のワクチン接種で、一部の国はすでにめざましい進展をみせている。早い段階で複数のワクチンの大量調達にめどをつけていたのに加え、当局も迅速に認可手続きを進め、大規模な接種のための効果的なインフラも整っていたなどが功を奏したかたちだ。

世界のワクチン接種状況を追跡しているウェブサイト「Our World in Data」のデータによると、100人あたりの接種率は1月2日現在、イスラエルが12.59%で断トツのトップとなっている。新型コロナの感染拡大に歯止めをかけるには、国民の60~70%の接種が必要とみられている。

2位はバーレーン(3.57%)、3位は英国(1.39%)。英国では4日、オックスフォード大学とアストラゼネカが共同開発した安価で扱いやすいワクチンの接種が始まっており、接種率は今後、急激に上がりそうだ。以下、アメリカ(1.28%)、デンマーク(0.70%)、ロシア(0.55%)、中国(0.31%)、カナダ(0.30%)と続いている。

いずれにせよ、現時点ではイスラエルが世界をリードしている。現在3度めのロックダウン(都市封鎖)を敷いているイスラエルだが、ワクチンの接種は早くも昨年12月19日に始めており、1日あたり約15万回実施している。1月2日までに109万回の接種が行われた。

イスラエルはパンデミック(世界的な大流行)の初期に、ファイザーとバイオンテックが共同開発していたワクチンの供給を確保。優れた医療制度や接種に意欲的な国民の姿勢と相まって、高い接種率につながっている。

ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ首相は、ワクチン接種がこのままうまく進めば、イスラエルは2月にもパンデミックを脱することができる可能性があると述べている。

(ブルームバーグ): 米フィラデルフィア連銀のハーカー総裁は、米金融当局による債券購入プログラムが早ければ年末にも縮小を始める可能性があると述べた。

ハーカー総裁は7日、バーチャル形式のイベントで講演後に質問を受け、「潜在的には、2021年末か22年早期に起こる可能性はある。ただし、全て景気の進路に左右され、景気の進路はウイルスの進路に左右される」と回答した。

「あまりに早期に開始しようとすれば、市場に混乱を引き起こしかねない」とし、「そのため、私はこれに関してかなり慎重だ。景気の修復が実際に見られるようになるまで、変わらない姿勢でいるべきだ」と続けた。

ハーカー氏は景気について、今年下期までに「さらなる正常化が見られるようになる」との楽観を示した。

「昨年の第4四半期(10-12月)は小幅な成長が示されるが、今年の第1四半期(1-3月)は著しい減速になると予想している。場合によってはマイナス成長すらあり得る」と発言。「今年後半には強い成長となり、22年末を通じてその状況が続き、23年に若干鈍化するだろう」と述べた。

ハーカー総裁は今年の連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)で議決権を持たない。

(ブルームバーグ): 米アトランタ連銀のボスティック総裁は、米経済が年央までに想定外に力強さを増す可能性があり、その場合は予想よりも早く、金融当局による債券購入のテーパリング(段階的縮小)が始まることになるかもしれないとの見解を示した。

同総裁は6日に収録され7日に放映されたFOXビジネスとのインタビューで、「われわれは声明で、目標に向け顕著な進展を遂げたい意向を示した。必ずしもそれに到達する必要はないと私は思う」とコメント。「予想より早く引き戻す可能性があるのは全くの想定内だ」と語った。

FOMC声明:2大目標に向け「顕著な進展」あるまで債券購入継続
また、「ワクチン配布が適切に行われれば、夏から秋へと進むにつれて米経済はかなり順調に推移するだろう。順調に進めば、一部の予想よりもはるかに力強くなる可能性がある」と話した。同総裁は今年、連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)の投票権を持つ。

[ワシントン 7日 ロイター] –     米リッチモンド地区連銀のバーキン総裁は7日、選挙結果のほか、新型コロナウイルスワクチンの段階的な普及などを踏まえると、米財政支援策は今後は拡大しない公算が大きいとの見方を示した。

ジョージア州で5日投票が行われた連邦議会上院決選投票では、民主党候補が2議席とも獲得。上院の議席配分は与野党50議席ずつとなり、ハリス次期副大統領が決定票を握ることになる。

バーキン総裁はノースカロライナ州のビジネス団体のオンラインイベントで、ジョージア州の2議席を民主党が確保したものの「民主党のリードはこれまでで最も小さい」とし、「このことは、苦境に陥っている人々に対する支援は継続されるものの、一段と積極的な法案の可決は難しくなることを示している」と指摘。

ワクチン普及で生活の正常化が予想されることを踏まえると、これまでのような政府支出の大幅な増加はないとの見方を示した。

また、新型ウイルスワクチン接種が始まったものの普及に時間がかかっていることは、「生活が完全に通常通りに戻るのが早くても今夏になることを示している」と指摘。

今年の初めの数カ月は安定しない可能性があるが、9000億ドルの追加景気支援策など「悪化を防ぐための複数のバックストップが用意されている」とし、ワクチン接種が進むにつれ、下半期には景気の足取りは確かなものになるとの考えを示した。

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