感染症対策が経済対策となる

新型コロナ対応で多大な負担を強いられてきた病院が経営破綻の危機に晒されている。
医療現場の経営危機で全国の医療機関の3割がボーナスを減らす。船橋二和病院のストライキ・東京女子医大病院の看護師400人の退職希望が報道される。
カネの問題ではなく、現場の苦労に報いる気持ちが欠けていることへの憤りであろう。
医療現場・高齢者介護現場・保育園、命の現場への財政出動が必要なのである。
安倍晋三は予備費10兆円の裁量権を獲得し、1日5時間勤務の隠遁生活である。
感染症対策が経済対策となる。
日本は感染症対策が無為無策のままである。
ホリエモン・小林よしのり・ウーマン村本・京都大学藤井聡・京都大学宮沢孝幸、「経済を止めれば自殺者が出る」と人命を利用して恫喝する。
大学教授ともあろう者が「人々の安全・安心の為にも政府の感染症対策が必要である」と何故、言えないのか。
宮沢孝幸はウィルス・再生医療准教授である。東京の連日200人を超える新規感染者を第三波・第四波と捉える。非常事態宣言が解かれた後に外出した人が第三波であり、東京アラートが解除された後に外出した人が第四波を形成していると発言する。
そもそも宮沢は夏に第三波・第四波が訪れると警戒出来ていたか。「今が新規感染者数のピーク絶頂であり、7月末には収束する。」と発言した。外したら、どう責任取るのか。
付け焼き場の思い付きで発言を重ねるが。秋冬に再び大量の新規感染者が発生したら、その時は何と言うのか。
6月半ばから今日までの大量の新規感染者は大量の集団感染クラスターを産む。大量感染は病院・介護現場・保育園に向かう。
経済優先論者は命の現場に負担を投げっぱなしの無責任論者である。
アメリカ・ブラジル・スウェーデンに移住しろ。
企業破綻の危険度を測る経営安全性指標として知られる「Zスコア」の考案者、ニューヨーク大学スターン経営大学院のエドワード・アルトマン名誉教授(金融学)は、今年の「メガ倒産」の多発がまだ始まったばかりだと米社債の投資家に警告を発した。
今年に入り既に米企業30社余りが連邦破産法11条の適用を申請し、その負債額の合計は10億ドル(約1070億円)を上回る。アルトマン氏によれば、新型コロナウイルス感染拡大の下で企業の負債は積み上がり、破産法の適用申請は年内に60件を上回る可能性が高い。
今年の世界の社債発行額は過去最高の2兆1000億ドルに達し、発行体のほぼ半分が米企業だ。
金融刺激策に支えられた3月以降の債券市場の相場上昇のおかげで、新型コロナ危機の下でも借り手は何とかやりくりできているが、多くの企業は避けて通れない債務処理を先送りしているだけだとアルトマン氏らは警鐘を鳴らす。
フィッチ・レーティングスは、今年の世界全体の社債デフォルト(債務不履行)が、 2009年の世界的なリセッション(景気後退)当時の水準を超える可能性があると予測している。
アルトマン氏は、企業は本来、08年の金融危機後の銀行のようにレバレッジ解消を行うべきだが、正反対の方向に動いていると指摘。「支払い不能のリスクが高まれば、債務を増やしてはならず、減らす必要がある」と主張した。
国際通貨基金(IMF)は17日、米国経済を分析した年次報告書を公表し、2020年の実質GDP(国内総生産)成長率の見通しをマイナス6.6%と、6月時点(マイナス8.0%)から上方修正した。
ただ新型コロナウイルス感染の急拡大が「最大のリスク」と警告し、景気回復は長い道のりになると分析した。
見直しは経済再開による消費の持ち直しを反映させた。ただ、フロリダやカリフォルニアなど南部や西部諸州での感染者急増を念頭に「経済再開が部分的に逆戻りしている」と、景気の下振れを憂慮。21年は3.9%と従来の4.5%から下方修正した。
米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)の幹部らは当初、新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大による米経済の悪化について、深刻ではあるものの今年4~6月期に限定されるとやや楽観していた。
だが、ここへきて、高い失業率や企業破綻リスクの上昇を伴いながら景気後退(リセッション)が長引く事態に備え始めたようだ。 感染拡大の第2波が深刻化し、すでに低迷している米経済に一段の打撃を与えるというシナリオが現実のものとなるなか、FRBの高官たちはこの2~3週間で、公の場での発言のトーンを協調して変えてきた。
アトランタ連銀のラファエル・ボスティック総裁は14日のオンラインセミナーで、経済活動は「危機前よりも低い水準で横ばいになっている」ように見えると語り、この状態は、以前の予想よりも回復にもう少し時間がかかることを示唆しているのかもしれないと続けた。
先ごろ公表された6月の連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)の議事録でも、複数の当局者が「感染拡大の新たな波が来る可能性はかなり高く、実際にそうなった場合、一部のシナリオでは経済をさらに混乱させ、場合によっては経済活動の低下を長引かせかねない」ことに懸念を示している。
もっとも、第2波が起きていない段階ですら失業率は急激に悪化しており、回復には何年もかかる公算が大きい。
ボストン連銀のエリック・ローゼングレン総裁もフィナンシャル・タイムズのインタビューで、「米国ではなお多くの地域で市中感染が起きており、こうした事態は公衆衛生面だけでなく経済面でも引き続き問題になるだろう」と語っている。 ローゼングレンは、状況が悪化するにつれて、これまではあまり使われていないFRBの緊急融資プログラムへの需要が高まるとも予想している。
サンフランシスコ連銀のメアリー・デイリー総裁も、米経済が完全に回復する過程について厳しい見通しを示している。 デイリーは15日、ワシントン・ポストのオンラインライブイベントで、確固とした緩和戦略やワクチンによって新型コロナウイルスの流行を制御できれば、経済活動をすみやかに元に戻せると発言。ただし、その場合も回復には「4~5年」を要するだろうとし、「経済への打撃が広がり、また長引くことになれば、回復にはもっと時間がかかるかもしれない」と話した。
世界の不動産投資は1-6月(上期)に前年同期比33%減った。不動産ブローカーの英サヴィルズがまとめた。新型コロナウイルスのパンデミック(世界的大流行)が経済に打撃を与え取引が混乱した。
同社のリポートによれば、最も大きな落ち込みはアジア太平洋地域の45%減。米州は36%減、欧州・中東・アフリカは19%減った。
各国のロックダウン(都市封鎖)で観光業が数カ月にわたり事実上止まったことから、ホテル投資は59%減。小売り不動産では41%減った。工業および住宅不動産は比較的良かった。
サヴィルズのグローバル資本市場責任者サイモン・ホープ氏は20日の資料で、市況がはっきりするのを投資家は待っており、年内は投資が「パンデミック前の水準を大きく下回り続ける見通し」だと指摘。ただ投資家による物流や住宅、ライフサイエンスなどの分野での資産確保重視により、一部セクターで好調が見込まれるともコメントした。
そもそも今年は世界の金融バブルが大崩壊する年だった。たまたま年初に想定外の新型コロナ感染症が加わる。中国など長江の大洪水による三峡ダムの崩壊・ダム下流の武漢・南京・上海の洪水、サバクトビバッタ・トノサマバッタ・イナゴの大発生、豚インフルエンザの五重苦である。
新型コロナが世界の実体経済を止めている間に、崩壊予定だった世界金融バブルは確実に大崩壊しつつある。
目先の欲望に駆られて「経済を回せ」と叫んでも、赤ん坊の泣き声のように弱弱しい説得力の無い声である。
コロナ以前の経済活動に戻れるなど認識が甘い。
日本の産業構造を根幹から再構築する必要がある。弥生時代に戻るくらいのレベルの再構築が必要となる。
命の現場を護りながら、産業構造再構築の有り方を模索すべきである。

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