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【AFP=時事】新型コロナウイルスの流行第2波に見舞われている欧州の少なくとも14か国で先週、コロナ関連の入院患者数が過去最多を記録した。各国の公式データをまとめたAFPの集計で明らかになった。

最も状況が悪化したのはチェコで、コロナ関連で入院した患者数は住民10万人当たり62人となった。次いでルーマニアが57人、ベルギーが51人、ポーランドが39人だった。

このデータは、欧州52か国中35か国が提供した医療機関での数値を基にしており、35か国には欧州連合(EU)加盟国のほとんどが含まれる。

新型コロナウイルス感染症(COVID-19)による入院患者は、35か国全体で1週間前には10万人に満たなかったが、現在は計13万5000人に上っている。

入院患者数の増加率は、セルビアで97%と最も大きく、次いでベルギーで81%、オーストリアで69%、イタリアで65%だった。

流行の第1波以後、入院患者数が減少したのはモンテネグロのみだった。

日刊ゲンダイデジタル。
25日、全国で新たに確認された新型コロナウイルス感染者は495人。東京(124人)、大阪(70人)が目立つものの、気がかりなのは全国各地でジワジワ増加傾向にあることだ。秋冬の第3波は、列島の隅々に到来しつつある。

中でも、感染拡大の危機が迫り、対応が急がれるのは別表の22道府県。「実効再生産数」「10万人当たりの病床数」「重症者数」を一覧にした。

最も注目なのは、1人の感染者が平均で何人に感染させるかを表す指標である「実効再生産数」だ。1を下回ると感染者数は減少し、収束に向かうが、1を上回ると感染は拡大する。東洋経済オンラインが算出している全国の実効再生産数(10月23日時点)は1・01人。22道府県が1を上回っている。

1人が2人以上にうつす「2超」は4県。トップの山口は10月11日以降、感染者ゼロが続いていたが、21日に東京出張帰りの70代会社役員の感染が確認された。陽性の濃厚接触者3人のうち1人は当初、無症状だったが、現在は重症だ。

群馬では県警大泉署で9人感染のクラスターが発生。全署員107人中74人が自宅待機という異常事態になっている。前橋市の専門学校生5人の感染も確認された。岡山では5人の会食クラスター、和歌山では7人のスナッククラスターが起きている。

病床逼迫をいかに回避するか。
群馬と岡山は病床数も危うい。厚労省が発表した21日時点のコロナ患者向け確保病床数を基に10万人当たりの確保病床数を算出したところ、群馬と岡山は全国平均24・4床を大きく下回る。

病床数でリスクが高いのは静岡、愛知、兵庫で平均の半分以下の水準だ。22人の重症者がいる大阪も15・45床と心もとない。拡大傾向が続けば、病床が逼迫する事態にもなりかねない。

医療ガバナンス研究所理事長の上昌広氏が言う。 「政府は、感染機会を増やすGo To キャンペーンを実施する一方で、感染抑制策は感染者の濃厚接触者をPCR検査するという従前のやり方から全く進歩がない。世田谷区や神戸市の社会的検査のように、感染拡大の前に手を打つ予防的な対策も必要です」。

世田谷区は10月から、有症者や濃厚接触者に限らない社会的検査を重症化リスクのある高齢者が多い介護施設で開始。2万6000件の検査をする。神戸市は11月下旬から、介護施設や障害者施設の職員を対象にPCR検査をスタートさせる。最大1万1000人が対象だ。

コロナ最優先を掲げる菅政権。もう少しマトモな感染対策をやったらどうか。

実効再生産数を挙げる。山口2・69。群馬2・62。岡山2・40。和歌山2・09。岐阜1・98。秋田1・64。沖縄1・43。青森1・31。愛知1・38。栃木1・14。北海道1・12。大阪1・12。長野1・27。山梨1・23。

北海道・東北・北関東・愛知・大阪・沖縄、新規感染者数が増加している道府県が軒並み数値が高い。

ダイヤモンド社グレゴリーザッカーマン著「最も賢い億万長者」を読む。ルネサンステクノロジーズのジェイムズシモンズの評伝である。ザッカーマンがインタビューに応じてくれたジェイムズシモンズに、遠慮しながら書いた気配が伝わってくる。「世紀の空売り」「ウォール街の物理学者」の面白さには及ばない。

ルネサンステクノロジーズの心臓部はAIではなく、スーパーコンピューターである。AIは人間が休んでいても深層学習で勝手に学び、進化していく。スーパーコンピューターはアルゴリズムを計算する数学者・物理学者の研究の賜物が実る。レニーバウム・ジェームズアックス・ヘンリーラウファー・ピーターブラウンそしてロバートマーサーが如何にしてアルゴリズム計算式をスパコンに入力していったかの軌跡が分かる。

ロバートマーサーには「ネットの陰謀論を鵜呑みにするオルタナティブ右翼」な性質があった。ドナルドトランプ政権の黒幕と成るのは「似た者同士」であるからのようだ。

ルネサンステクノロジーズのスパコンには「国家・企業分析の判断材料。GDP・物価上昇率・失業率・財政収支・株価収益率・1株当たり純利益・自己資本利益率等、経済の基礎的条件・国家企業の経済状態を表す指標ファンダメンタル。セルインメイ・四半期決算の様子見・大統領選挙前の動向等、過去の経験則アノマリー。企業の売り上げ・決算を見るときの安定性からの予測ボラティリティ。相場の勢い・上昇下降の強弱を示す指標モメンタム。」がアルゴリズムとして組み込まれている。

市場に現れたデータシグナル。ルネサンステクノロジーズの幹部クラスも直感的に理解出来ないシグナルをスパコンのアルゴリズムが適切に解決していく。シモンズは「築き上げたコンピューターシステムを信用しろ」が口癖となる。

現在のNY市場・シカゴ市場はFRBからの量的金融緩和マネーが流れ込み過去の経験則アノマリーが当てに成らない相場である。マイケルバーリみたいな伝説の相場師とルネサンステクノロジーズのスパコン、どちらが異次元の官製相場の先を読めるだろう。

フランス・ドイツは1か月間のロックダウンが決定する。スペイン・イタリアは部分的ロックダウンに踏み切る。イギリスも1か月間のロックダウンを発表する。ヨーロッパよりも新規感染者数・死亡者数の増加が深刻なアメリカでは、トランプが選挙戦大規模集会で感染を拡大させている。

大統領選挙のアノマリー。選挙戦3か月前、株価が上昇すれば現職が勝利する。株価が下落すれば現職が敗北する。市場はバイデン勝利を織り込んでいる。11月3日、明後日以降もトランプはゴネて敗北宣言しないだろう。その結果、アメリカの追加経済政策が纏まらない。政治が新型コロナ感染拡大と経済の混乱を招く。トランプの所為である。

アメリカでは新型コロナ危機で賃貸で暮らす多くの人が家賃を払えずにいる。政府の家賃支援が無ければ家主も物件の不動産ローンの支払いが不可能になる。立ち退き猶予措置も1月以前、年末迄には失効する。

何が起こるのか。

サブプライムローン破綻の再現である。09年にはローン担保証券サブプライムモーゲージ債権が破綻してローンが焦げ付いた。今回は実体経済のローンが相次いで焦げ付き、ローン担保証券が破綻する。不動産担保証券MBSが破綻する。零細中小企業のレバレッジドローンの担保証券コラタライズドローンオブリゲーションCLOが破綻する。現在、CLOは農林中金・ゆうちょ銀行・三大メガバンク。100兆円超のCLOを日本の金融機関が抱え込んでいる。

アメリカ大統領選挙後の経済混乱・トランプが拡大させたアメリカの新型コロナ感染爆発。ヨーロッパよりもアメリカの方がロックダウンが必要なのである。そして都市封鎖ロックダウンは感染対策として効果が無い。封鎖した都市の深部で感染は拡がり封鎖を解けば、再び再感染拡大する。都市封鎖は感染再拡大の先送りでしかない。

欧米の同時経済危機が、日本のCLOを爆発させる。

こういう重大な金融危機を国民に知らせず、ゴーツー事業で遊べと唆す。菅義偉は大恐慌を招いた総理として歴史に名を刻む。

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