何故WHO・アメリカCDCのパンデミック認定は遅れているのか

ブルームバーグ。
世界保健機関(WHO)は新型コロナウイルスがまだパンデミック(世界的大流行)にはなっていないとしているが、このような惨事のリスクを証券化した大災害(カタストロフィー)債券(CAT債)は、すでにパンデミックの段階に入っている可能性があることを示唆している。
パンデミックに備える資金を貧困国向けに調達するため、世界銀行が2017年に発行したCAT債は、額面を最大40%下回る価格で取引されている。同債券を保有する投資家が明らかにした。イランやイタリアといった諸国でのウイルス感染拡大が背景にあるという。
同CAT債のトランシェ2本のうち、総額9500万ドル(約105億円)相当のリスクが高いトランシェは、額面1ドル当たり60-70セントで売買されるだろうと、同投資家は匿名を条件に話した。2億2500万ドル相当の比較的安全なトランシェは、額面価格をわずかに下回る水準だという。
これは発行以来の最安値水準ではない。コンゴ共和国で昨年エボラ出血熱が流行した際には、40セントまで下げた。
17年7月世界銀行はCATボンド・カタストロフ債を4億1500万ドル発行する。
CATボンド・カタストロフ債の目的は、世界の最も貧しい国77国の疫病対策資金調達である。
日本・ドイツが資金を拠出して保険料をまかない、資金は債権を発行して投資家から調達している。
CATボンド・カタストロフ債は同じ程度の格付けの企業の社債よりも高い利率が支払われる。
ただし大地震・大災害が発生すれば元本割れ・元本消滅する仕組み債である。
本来は社会貢献の為のCATボンド・カタストロフ債である。
CATボンド・カタストロフ債は今までの損害保険が適用出来ない災害をカバーするリスク管理手法となる。
CATボンド・カタストロフ債は高い利回りの自然災害保険商品として欧米の機関投資家の人気商品となる。
疫病確定・保険発動はWHOの発表データに準じる。
CATボンド・カタストロフ債の満期は今年の7月である。
今年の7月まで大災害・パンデミックが起きなければ投資家は大儲けできる。
COVID19はWHOがパンデミック認定すればCATボンド・カタストロフ債が発動される。
発動されればCATボンド・カタストロフ債は商品としてデフォルトし、投資家は大損する。
後4か月のタイムリミットがWHO・米CDCのパンデミック認定の遅れである。
(ブルームバーグ): トランプ米大統領は先月、新型コロナウイルス感染拡大は暖かい気候によって数カ月以内に収束するだろうと米国民に語ったが、疫学の専門家らはそれが真実かどうかを示す十分な情報はないと指摘している。
トランプ大統領は2月のテレビ演説で新型ウイルスについて、「暖かくなる4月には消えてなくなるとの見方が多いとご存じだろう」と述べていた。
ハーバード大学公衆衛生大学院のマーク・リプシッチ教授(疫学)は北米や欧州など温暖な地域では高い湿度がインフルエンザの流行ペースを抑えることが分かっているが、新型ウイルスでも同じ状況になるのか知るすべはないと資料で指摘した。
「2003年の重症急性呼吸器症候群(SARS)での経験がこうした見方を裏付けると指摘する向きもある」が、気候だけが同年の流行に歯止めをかけたというのは根拠に乏しい通念だとした上で、「中国本土の都市や香港、ベトナム、カナダなどでかなり集中的な公衆衛生上の対策が講じられたことで終息した」と分析した。
さらに、通常の風邪が夏の始まりに反応するのと同じような経過を新型ウイルスもたどるとの見方も根拠を欠く通念だと指摘。その理由として「人々の間に長い間存在してきた季節性ウイルスと新しく入ってきたウイルスとは動きが異なる」と言及した。
産経新聞。
【ワシントン=住井亨介】米紙ニューヨーク・タイムズ(電子版)は5日、米国内の新型コロナウイルスの感染者数が少なくとも215人となったと報じた。首都ワシントン近郊のメリーランド州モントゴメリー郡では同州初の感染者が確認された。西海岸で多かった感染例が東海岸や中西部でも確認され始め、拡大する様相を見せている。死者は3人増えて計14人となった。
同紙によると、感染者は西部ワシントン州75人、同カリフォルニア州60人、東部ニューヨーク州22人の順に多い。死者はワシントン州が13人で、カリフォルニア州が1人。
州・地方レベルではこれまで検査キットが不足していたことなどから感染報告が少なかった可能性がある。トランプ政権はキット配布を急いでおり、検査態勢が整えばさらに感染例が増えるとみられる。
ウエッジ。
「新型肺炎を引き起こすコロナウィルスは民主党によるデタラメ」とまで発言、世界中を巻き込む騒ぎを「たいしたことではない、4月ごろまでには収束する」と楽観的な姿勢を崩さなかった米トランプ大統領。さすがに国内でも3月3日現在で108人の感染者と9人の死亡が確認されたことで、日本を含めた入国禁止措置の拡大などを真剣に検討し始めた。
しかし、当初から新型肺炎への対応を巡っては、政権とCDC(米疾病予防センター)との間の温度差が指摘されていた。日本でのクルーズ船ダイヤモンド・プリンセスからの米国人帰国のためのチャーター便でも、CDCが強く反対したにもかかわらず国務省が感染が認められた14人を陰性だった人々と同じ飛行機で帰国させた。これについては大統領は「事前に聞かされていなかった」と大激怒した、と報じられたが、国務省側のチームにはホワイトハウスの保健衛生担当も含まれていた。
本来国が一致団結して対応に当たるべきだが、CDCという政権から独立した機関と政権の一部であるFDA(米食品医薬品局)との縄張り争いのような騒動も聞かれるようになった。検査キットやワクチン開発について、どちらが主導権を持つのか、各州政府はどちらの指示に従えば良いのか、混乱が広がっているという。
例えば3月に入り、2月末に行われる予定だったCDCとFDAの専門家との会議でFDA側が「CDCに拒否され、一晩待たされた」と語っている、という事実が報道された。米POLITICOのインターネット版によると、FDAの治験、放射線治療などの専門家であるティモシー・ステンゼル氏は2月22日にCDCを訪れたがセンター内への入所許可が得られず、FDA上層部が何度も要請した結果ようやく翌日にCDCへの入所が認められた、という。
これに対しCDC側の広報では「スケジュールの誤解から生じたもの。FDAの担当者が到着したのは22日の午後7時ごろであり、CDCでは会合はその翌日と認識していた。セキュリティの観点からアポイントメントのない部外者のセンター内立ち入りは原則禁止されている」という釈明のコメント。結局23日には会合は無事に行われたというが、こうした小さな齟齬が起きているのは事実のようだ。
しかし、CDCでは2月の時点で新型肺炎ウィルスの検査について、まるで日本の厚生労働省のような厳しい基準を定めていた。中国に滞在していた人、あるいは陽性と認められた人と濃厚接触者に限り検査を行う、としていた。最近になってようやく検査対象の拡大に乗り出したが、初動の遅れが米国内にウィルスの感染拡大を招いた、という批判は免れない。
例えば、33人の感染者が判明しているカリフォルニア州では、主にアジアからの入国者や他州から移動してきた人8400人を経過観察対象とし、全員への検査を希望していた。しかし同州内には検査キットが200しかなく、同州のニューサム知事はCDCに対し迅速な検査体制への協力を要請していた。
また米国内の死亡者が集中しているワシントン州によると、ごく初期に感染が認められた人と最近の死亡者から採取したウィルスのDNAがほぼ同一だったことから、「州内では少なくとも6週間ウィルス感染が進んでいた可能性がある」という。つまり無症状の感染者がウィルスを広めた結果、同州内でのクラスター感染につながった、という見方だ。
遅ればせながらペンス副大統領をウィルス対策の陣頭指揮に指名したトランプ政権では、現在ウィルス検査へのガイダンスを「感染が疑われると医師から報告があった場合、その対象の米国人全てに検査実施を可能とする」とする方向で動いている。これまではまさに日本と同様に重篤な症状が見られる場合しか検査できない、という概念が各州にあったためだという。
しかし米国を訪れる多くの外国人観光客や不法移民に対してはどのような対処が行われるのか、空港などで経過観察となった人々の宿泊や行動制限はどうするのか、など課題は山積みだ。米国の現状について「1カ月前の日本のよう」と表現する米国人もいて、指導者の初期の楽観論により国内の感染拡大を招いた、という点で日本は米国の悪いお手本になってしまったのかもしれない。
産経新聞。
【ワシントン=住井亨介】米西部カリフォルニア州沖で乗員・乗客に新型コロナウイルスの感染症状が出ていることが明らかになったクルーズ船「グランド・プリンセス」への対応をめぐり、米国土安全保障省の高官は5日、上院委員会の公聴会で、すべての乗員を隔離収容する施設がないことを明らかにした。
グランド・プリンセスは横浜港で集団感染が発覚した「ダイヤモンド・プリンセス」と同じ米船会社「プリンセス・クルーズ」が保有している。米紙ワシントン・ポスト(電子版)などによると、グランド・プリンセスの乗客は約2500人で、乗員・乗客約20人が感染が疑われる症状を訴えている。
公聴会では「(検査で)陽性反応が出れば、全員を一緒に乗船させておくのは適切ではない」(ハッサン上院議員)などと懸念が噴出した。これに対し、国土安全保障省のケネス・クチネリ副長官は「一度に検疫を行う能力に誤解がある」と述べ、設備対応には限界があると訴えた。
グランド・プリンセスはハワイへのクルーズ中だったが、予定を変更して帰港のためサンフランシスコに向かっている。米CNNテレビ(電子版)によると、同船にはヘリコプターで運ばれた検査キットと米疾病対策センター(CDC)の担当者が下ろされた。CDCの指示でカジノが閉鎖されるなど人が集まる催しが中止されているという。
「ダイヤモンド・プリンセス」のケースでは船内での感染拡大を防げず、米国内でも批判が起きたこともあり、米当局は難しい対応を迫られそうだ。
BBCニュース。
米ホワイトハウスは5日、東海岸と西海岸の両方で新型コロナウイルスの症例数が増加する中、同国内の検査キットが足りていないと認めた。
マイク・ペンス副大統領はこの日、ドナルド・トランプ政権は、今週中に検査キット100万個を配布するという目標を達成できないだろうと述べた。
こうした中、米議会は、新型ウイルスのアウトブレイク(大流行)対策としての、超大型緊急援助計画を承認するため、異例の速さで対応した。
新型ウイルスをめぐっては、世界中でこれまでに9万2000人以上の感染が確認されている。そのうち8万人以上の感染が、新型ウイルスが発生した中国国内で確認されている。
死者数は、世界全体で3000人以上に上っている。米国内の死者は、5日時点で12人に達した。このうち11人は同国北西部ワシントン州で確認された。
新型ウイルスによる感染症「COVID-19」を発症した人は、20の州で200人以上に上っている。
■検査キットはどこにある?
食品医薬品局(FDA)のスティーブン・ハーン長官は2日、今週末までに100万個の検査キットが配布できるだろうと述べていた。
しかし、新型コロナウイルス対策担当として対応にあたっているペンス副大統領は5日、この目標は達成できないだろうとしぶしぶ認めた。
5日にミネソタ州の工場を訪問したペンス氏は、「現在、我々が予想する今後の需要に見合うだけの検査キットを、我々は持ち合わせていない」と明かした。
ペンス氏は同日夜、訪問先のワシントン州で、「検査キットが確実に利用できるようになるには、まだ道のりは長い」と述べた。
一方でペンス氏は、政府の検査用品サプライヤーが来週末までに、米国人120万人分の検査キットを全米に配布するだろうとした。
トランプ大統領は、過去14日間の間に、新型ウイルスの発生地の中国やイランなどへ渡航歴のある外国人の入国禁止措置を講じたことで、国内の感染者数は比較的少ないと主張している。
しかし、保健の専門家は、検査キットが不足しているため、ウイルスが検出されずに広がっているかもしれないと不安視している。
トランプ氏は、5日に上院で賛成96、反対1で可決された資金調達法案に署名するとみられる。この法案は、州政府および地方政府による新型ウイルスへの対応を支援するのが目的。
■どこで感染が広がっているのか。
ワシントン州シアトル地域の保健当局によると、州内で新たに20人の感染が確認され、感染者は合わせて70人に上った。
これまでに死亡した米国人のうち9人は、シアトル郊外の同じ介護施設に関連している。この施設は現在、感染予防ガイドラインを順守していたかどうかを確認するため、当局による調査を受けている。
マイクロソフトやアマゾンを含む、シアトル地域にある複数の大手企業は、一部業務を中止あるいは従業員に在宅勤務を促している。
東部ニューヨークでは、市内やその周辺地域での感染者数が一晩で2倍になり、22人に達した。ニューヨーク市長は連邦政府に対し、追加の検査キットを至急送るよう求めた。
北東部ロードアイランド州では、3人の感染が確認された、イタリアへの修学旅行と接点のある約200人が隔離されている。
西部カリフォルニア州・サンフランシスコ市は5日、2人が感染したと公表した。同市で感染が確認されたのは始めて。東部メリーランド州でも、同州で初めて3人の感染が確認された。
■クルーズ船で何が起きているのか。
当局は、カリフォルニア州サンフランシスコ沖に停泊中のクルーズ船「グランド・プリンセス」に対し、乗客乗員約3500人のウイルス検査が行われるまで停泊するよう命じた。
米沿岸警備隊は5日、ヘリコプターから検査キットをクルーズ船へ投下した。
クルーズ船を運航するプリンセス・クルーズ・ラインは、船内の100人弱が検査対象となっていると述べた。検査結果は6日までに判明するとみられる。
ギャヴィン・ニューソム、カリフォルニア州知事は、「我々が乗客を適切に評価するまでは、このクルーズ船は上陸できないだろう」と述べた。
このクルーズ船をめぐっては、先月乗船していた男性が、カリフォルニア州サクラメント近くの病院で亡くなったことが明らかになっている。当局によると、死亡したのは基礎疾患のあった71歳男性という。
当局によると、ほかに2人の乗客がカリフォルニア州北部の病院に入院しているという。
「今のアメリカは一月前の日本を見るようだ。」。
言い得て妙である。
安倍晋三は中国のインバウンド需要を期待して水際対策に失敗した。
そこにダイヤモンドプリンセス号が来襲した。
WHO・アメリカCDCは機関投資家からの圧力に屈してパンデミック宣言しない。
そこにグランドプリンセス号が来襲する。
ダイヤモンドプリンセス号とグランドプリンセス号は姉妹船である。
豪華クルーズ客船は「カネに目がくらんだ国」に航海する爆弾となり来襲するようだ。
タイム・ABCニュース・ニューヨークタイムズ・ワシントンポスト。
宜しく報道して貰いたい。

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