京都大学VSワシントン大学「新型コロナは11月に終息する」「29万人死亡する」

「世界中で新型コロナウイルスのワクチン開発が進んでいますが、すでに日本人はワクチンを打っているのと同じ状態にあります。いま、無症状の陽性者が増えているのも、彼らは“自らの免疫ですでに新型コロナに打ち克っている人たち”なんです」。
そう語るのは、京都大学大学院特定教授の上久保靖彦さんだ。上久保さんは、「新型コロナの脅威は終わった」と断言する。

PCR検査の増加に伴って第二波の陽性者は増えたが、致死率や重症化率は大幅に減少。国立感染症研究所が推計した第一波の5月と、第二波の8月の致死率を見ると、全年齢で8月は5月より6.3ポイント低い0.9%で、重症化が心配される70才以上では、8月は5月より17.4ポイントも低い8.1%だった。
そもそも日本の被害は、世界と比べて圧倒的に少ない。アメリカの感染者630万人、死者18万人、医療崩壊を起こしたイタリアの感染者27万人、死者3万5000人に対し、日本は感染者7万人、死者1300人に過ぎないのだ(9月8日現在)。

上久保さんが吉備国際大学教授の高橋淳さんと3月に発表した論文だ。その内容を要約するとこうなる。
「すでに多くの日本人は免疫を獲得しているので、新型コロナを恐れる必要はない」。

上久保さんは京都大学血液・腫瘍内科で感染症の臨床を学び、米国立衛生研究所(NIH)の所長のもと、遺伝子学を学んだ。現在、京大では免疫学や臨床検査学の教育・研究を長年行う、遺伝子変異分野のプロ中のプロである。その上久保さんが注目したのが、新型コロナの変異とインフルエンザの流行曲線だった。

「新型コロナやインフルエンザのような『RNAウイルス』の周りには、細胞にくっついて影響を与える突起(スパイク)があります。そのスパイクが変異することでウイルスは伝播・増殖しやすくなります。

そこで世界中の新型コロナの変異情報を記録するデータベース『GISAID』で調べたところ、新型コロナはS型、K型、G型の順に変異していることがわかりました。S型とその変異形であるK型は“弱毒タイプ”で、G型は人間の細胞とくっつきやすいスパイクに変異した“強毒タイプ”でした」(上久保さん・以下同)。

それらのウイルスがいつ、どのように世界に広まったかを調べるために、上久保さんが注目したのが、世界各国で精緻にモニターされているインフルエンザの流行曲線だ。
「インフルエンザに感染したら、コロナウイルスには感染しません。逆もまたしかりです。その逆相関関係のことを『ウイルス干渉』といいます。日本は昨年末までインフルエンザが流行していましたが、その時期に新型コロナが流入したことにより『ウイルス干渉』が起こり、インフルエンザの流行がストップしました。つまり、新型コロナの感染が拡大したということです」。

各国のインフルエンザ流行曲線を調べた結果、最初に中国で発生したS型は昨年12月にはすでに日本に上陸していたことがわかった。また、1月中旬にはK型が日本に上陸するなど中国近隣諸国にも広がっていた。
つまり、日本において新型コロナの感染や重症化がおさえられたのは、S型、引き続きK型が早期に日本に流入していたことにあるという。今年1月中旬に武漢滞在から帰国した男性が国内最初のコロナ感染者とされたが、昨年末の段階で、すでに弱毒性のコロナが蔓延していたのだ。

「もう1つのポイントは、1月23日に武漢が封鎖されてからも、3月8日まで中国人の渡航を制限しなかったことです。政府の方針は『対応が遅い』と批判されましたが、昨年11月から2月下旬にかけて約184万人もの中国人観光客の入国によって、S型とK型が日本中に広がった。それにより、日本人は知らない間に『集団免疫』を獲得できた。日本人はすでに新型コロナを克服していたのです」。

そもそも「免疫」とは、体内に侵入してきたウイルスや病原体に対抗する防御システムを指す。ウイルスが体内で増殖を始めると、危険を察知した免疫システムが起動して「抗体」を大量生産する。抗体はウイルスの表面にとりつき、やっつけることにより、細胞への侵入を阻止する。
抗体を持つ人が人口の50~70%を占めるようになるとウイルスが人から人へ移動できなくなり、やがて流行が終息するとされる。それが「集団免疫」である。

日本人が集団免疫を獲得した後、武漢で強毒化した「武漢G型」が日本に流入し、中国・上海で発生した「欧米G型」が世界に広がった。
「武漢G型、欧米G型は日本にも入ってきましたが、すでに日本人はS型とK型で集団免疫ができていました。G型は感染力が強く、多少の流行は生じましたが、S型とK型のコンビネーションで防御しているうち、G型の集団免疫も達成したと考えられます。そうして集団免疫を獲得できたことが、日本の被害が少なかった最大の要因です」。

では欧米ではなぜ多くの被害が出たのだろうか。「カギを握るのはK型です」と上久保さんが続ける。
「K型に感染すると免疫細胞の1つである『T細胞』が強化され、G型への防御力がアップします。しかし欧米は2月初旬に中国からの渡航を全面的に制限したため、G型に対抗するはずの弱毒のK型が充分に流入せず、強毒のG型の感染拡大を防げなかった。
S型は欧米に充分に流入していましたが、S型の抗体だけだと、かえってウイルスの増殖を盛んにする『抗体依存性免疫増強(ADE)』を引き起こします。欧米では、K型が入らなかったことにより、S型によってADEが起こり、重症者が増加したのです」。
日本とは逆に、中国からの渡航を早めに制限したことが仇となり、あれだけの被害を招いたのである。

ここで1つの疑問が生じる。前述の通り、コロナに感染して免疫ができたのならば、「抗体」ができるはずだ。しかし、6月に厚労省が3都府県7950人に行った抗体検査では、東京都0.1%、大阪府0.17%、宮城県0.33%と、抗体を持つ人はきわめて少なかった。これは多くの日本人がコロナに感染して集団免疫を獲得したという「上久保理論」と矛盾するのではないか。

「基準の問題です。抗体検査キットで陰性と陽性の境を決める基準を『カットオフ値』といいますが、その値はキットを作る会社が決めます。日本の場合、すでに発症して入院中の患者を基準にカットオフ値を決めたため、数値が高くなった。それにより、本来は抗体を持っている人まで『抗体なし』と判断されたと考えられます」。

抗体検査では、「IgG」という抗体値が重要だ。
「ウイルスに初めて感染すると最初に『IgM』という抗体値が上がり、その後に『IgG』が上昇します。また、すでに免疫を持っている人が再感染した場合、IgGが先に上がります。すなわち、抗体検査でIgGが確認された人は、すでに感染して免疫を持っていることになります。

実際、私たちの共同研究チームが10~80代のボランティア約370人の抗体検査をしたところ、全員が新型コロナのIgGを持っていた。これはすでに全員が感染していたことを意味します。“原因がよくわからないけどちょっと体調が悪いな”と身に覚えのある人は、感染して免疫を持っている可能性が大いにあるのです」。

一方で、「新型コロナの抗体は2~3か月で急激に減少する」との報告もある。中国・重慶医科大学らの研究では、患者の退院2か月後に症状があった人の96.8%、無症状の93.3%でIgG抗体が減少した。減少割合は半数の人で70%を超えた。上久保さんは「抗体が減少するからこそ、ウイルスとの共存が必要」と指摘する。

「確かに抗体は時間とともに減少します。しかし一方で、一度免疫が作られると、その後に再度感染することで免疫機能が強化される『ブースター効果』が期待できます。だからこそ、時折感染して抗体値を上げ、下がったらまた感染するというサイクルを繰り返すことが重要です。ワクチンを繰り返し打つことで、免疫が強くなることと同じです。“絶対にコロナにかからない”という考え方では、免疫機能は一向に働きません」。
免疫を働かせるため何度も感染すべきというのが上久保さんの主張だ。現実的にも、感染は繰り返されていると上久保さんは指摘する。

「すでに抗体を持っている人でも“喉にたまたまウイルスがいるケース”では、PCR検査をすれば陽性になります。それがいま急増中の無症状の人たちの正体です。ウイルスは検知されたけれど、免疫を持っているからほとんど症状が出ないということ。そのため『感染者』ではなく、『陽性者』と表現した方が私は正しいと思います。一時的に微熱や喉の痛みなどの軽い症状が出るのは、免疫がウイルスと闘っているからです」。

軽症や無症状が目立つ一方、コロナで重症者や死者が出ているのも事実だ。
「もちろん、高齢者や基礎疾患のある人が新型コロナにかかると重症化のリスクがあります。S型やK型に感染しなかった人がいきなりG型に感染しても重症化しやすいでしょう。
また、厚労省の通達により6月18日からどのような要因による重症化や死亡でも、PCR検査が陽性なら新型コロナが要因とみなされることになりました。例えば、心筋梗塞の持病があって死亡してもたまたま陽性だったら、新型コロナ肺炎による死亡とカウントされる。そうした統計の取り方で重症者や死者が増えている面があります」。

これまでインフルエンザ同様、秋冬に新型コロナが再拡大すると指摘されてきた。だが上久保さんは「11月に新型コロナは終息する」と語る。
「私たちの試算では、いまのところ日本人は、S型50%、K型55%、武漢G型80%、欧米G型85%で集団免疫が成立し、このままいけば、11月にはほぼ100%の日本人が免疫を持つはずです。高齢や基礎疾患などの重症化リスクがなければ、今後亡くなる人は少なくなるでしょう」。
ウイルスの変異も11月が「最終章」になる。

「新型コロナのスパイクが変異可能な数は最大で12~14で、ひと月に1回ほどの頻度です。現在、日本が検体のデータを出していないので何型まで進んでいるのかわかりませんが、S型が始まったのが昨年12月なので、今年の11月には最後の変異を終えて、その後消失し、ただのコロナウイルスになります。それはコロナウイルスのメカニズムで決まっていることなのです。年末には、新型コロナは終焉を迎えるはずです」。ニュースポストセブン。

上久保靖彦教授の「集団免疫獲得説」は教授がテレビ朝日TVタックルに出演した際、「藤井聡・宮沢孝幸、京都大学にはロクな教授が居ないようだ。」と書いた。

改めて、「11月に新型コロナのパンデミックは終了するかもしれない」と言って貰えると有難味が湧く。あと三か月様子を見れば、はっきり結果が分かる医学だからだ。

そのうえで老婆心ながら。

上久保教授の学説は「交差免疫の獲得」ファクターX論の一つである。「新型コロナには積極的に感染して免疫を獲得せよ」との教えだが。K型に感染しておらず、S型だけに感染している者がG型に感染する。抗体依存性免疫増強で重症化する患者が後3か月で爆発したらどうする。

医療現場は2月以降の新型コロナとの闘いで逼迫・疲弊・疲労・疲れ切っている。抗体依存性免疫増強で病院に担ぎ込まれる若者が爆発したら、救える生命の高齢者・基礎疾患を持つ患者を救えなくなる。医療崩壊で救えない生命も寿命なのか。

後遺症の危険性はどうなる。安倍晋三は2月以降、一日2万件の検査体制を確立すると言いっぱなしで、未だに2万件達成していない。同時に、海外からの後遺症の深刻さの報告を受けて、「日本でも後遺症の実情を把握する」と言いっぱなしで、日本人患者の後遺症の実情の発表が為されない。

安倍政権は「感染症対策に政府・国家として責任を持って取り組まない」。感染症対策を国民の自己責任として丸投げし、責任を押し付ける図々しさが特徴である。

来週、菅政権に変わろうとしている。二階俊博と菅義偉とで推し進めてきたゴーツーキャンペーンは、感染者の多い東京も加えて推し進めるようである。上久保靖彦教授の学説が真実なら11月まで、待てば良い。ゴーツーキャンペーンと解散総選挙とがセットなのである。観光業・飲食業・サービス業・イベント業に「ゴーツートラベル・イート・イベント」で恩を売り、票を買いたいのだろう。

上久保靖彦教授の論は、政府にとって渡りに船の都合の良い学説である。医学者であるならば「救える生命は全て救う」という気概を持って欲しい。ヨーゼフメンゲレの如く医学を政治利用させるな。

むしろ、アストラゼネカ・ファイザー・モデルナから購入予定のワクチンの逆効果に警鐘を鳴らして貰いたい。下手なワクチンを接種すれば、抗体依存性免疫増強が発生する恐れがある。日本政府は「薬を求めて毒を購入しよう」としている。上久保靖彦教授の学説なら、ワクチン接種が逆に危険であると指摘出来る。

政府の無為無策、ワクチン購入という愚策を指導できるのが大久保靖彦学説である。国民のコロナパーティという軽挙妄動を誘発させず、政府にワクチン接種の危険性を説いて欲しい。アベノマスク・ゴーツーキャンペーン・ワクチン購入というムダ金ばかり使う政府に、ガツンと言える医学者に登場して貰いたい。

11月に終息するパンデミックであるならば。見届けさせて貰う。あと少しの辛抱であり、有難い。上久保靖彦教授には不用意な発言をして、病院の負担を増やさない様に細心の注意を払って貰いたい。

日刊ゲンダイ。
夏の終わりとともに危険な“大波”が訪れそうだ。国内の新型コロナウイルス新規感染者は9日、508人だった。過去最多の1595人を記録した先月7日から1カ月が経過し、“第2波”は落ち着きつつあるように見えるが、今後予想される“第3波”はさらにヤバい。

米ワシントン大の「保健指標評価研究所(IHME)」の最新研究によると、コロナによる全世界の死者数が年末までに280万人に上る恐れがあるという。

現在、全世界の死者数は約90万人。3カ月程度で約3倍に膨れ上がるというのだから驚きだ。
IHMEは世界各国の死者数の推移について、各国政府が①規制を緩める「悪化ケース」②規制を強める「最良ケース」③規制が現状維持の「最もあり得るケース」――に分けて調査。死者数280万人は③のケースで、最悪の①のケースだと400万人に上る恐れがあるという。

日本の死者数も半端じゃない。③のケースでナント、年末までに約12万人の死者が発生。最良の②のケースでも約10万5000人になり、①の場合は約29万人だ。9日までの国内死者数は1425人。年末に死者が100倍近くに膨れ上がるなんて、「目を覆う」どころか信じたくないレベルだ。

死者激増の原因は、大都市が多い北半球で今後、秋冬が到来し、気温が下がること。IHMEのクリストファー・マレー所長は、「寒い気候で一段と流行する見通し」「北半球の人々は冬が近づくにつれ特に警戒が必要」と警鐘を鳴らしている。確かに7~8月に冬だった南半球のオーストラリアや南アフリカ、ブラジルでは感染が急拡大した。寒い秋冬は要警戒だ。医療ガバナンス研究所理事長の上昌広氏が言う。

「死者12万人とは驚きですが、『あり得ない』と切り捨てることはできません。11~1月の寒い時季に流行する風邪やインフルエンザウイルス同様、コロナも活性化する可能性がある。加えて、経済的に疲弊する現在の社会情勢は、感染拡大を抑制し得る『都市封鎖』など強い措置に耐えられる状況にありません。これらを総合的に勘案すると、『死者12万人』は否定し切れない。ワクチン開発も不透明。やはり、『広範な検査』と『陽性者隔離』を進めるしかありません」。

■「Go To」、解散総選挙どころじゃない  来月からは「Go To トラベル」の地域共通クーポンの利用が開始。さらに、次期政権による衆院解散機運が高まっているが、とても秋冬にやっている場合じゃない。

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