二階俊博GoToトラベルで売国

米疾病対策センター(CDC)は21日、米国での新型コロナウイルス感染の実態について、実際の感染者数は、報告された症例数の最大24倍に上る地域もあるという推計を発表した。 「ほとんどの場所で10倍を超すと思われる。報告された症例数を上回る感染が起きていた」と指摘する。

ニューヨーク州の場合、4月1日までの感染者は64万2000人に上っていたとCDCは推計する。しかしこの時点で公式に報告された症例数はわずか5万3803例だった。つまり、実際の感染者数は、報告された症例数の12倍を超えていたことになる。

フロリダ州南部やコネティカット州、ミネソタ州の感染者は、公式統計の推定6~11倍だった。 こうした推計は控えめに見積もった数字だと、米医学会誌に掲載された論文では指摘している。

米国は依然として、集団免疫の獲得にはほど遠い状況にある。だがそれも、1度感染すれば免疫ができるという前提に基づくもので、その前提が成り立つかどうかは専門家にも分かっていない。 米ジョンズ・ホプキンス大学の統計によると、米国内では21日、新型コロナウイルスの症例5万7216例と、少なくとも970人の死亡が報告された。これまでに確認された症例は累計で少なくとも389万例、死者は14万1800人を超えている。

阿保のトランプが今更「マスクを付けた顔写真」をSNSにアップし「新型コロナ感染の状況は悪化するだろう」と他人事の様に表明する。コロナ楽観論に洗脳され感染症対策を疎かにした指導者のみじめな末路である。

感染症対策は政府が多くの専門家の意見・学識・仮説を聞き、政権にとって耳触りの良い都合の良い楽観論を取り入れる姿勢では成功しない。専門家の知見を「今、どのような対策を立てるのが最善か。」の判断に役立て実行する。「打つ手を考えろ」を次々に実践していくのが感染症対策である。

大阪大学の核物理研究センター長、中野貴志教授は次のように言い切る。 「今回の感染は7月9日前後にピークを迎えています。いつ感染したかで考えると、推定感染日を2週間前とすれば、6月25日前後にはピークアウトしていたことになります」。

中野教授の発言は、自身が考案した「K値」の計算にもとづいている。これは大阪府も感染対策に用いている指標で、直近1週間の新規感染者数を、累積感染者数で割って算出する。これまで先にK値で予測を立て、以降の感染者数を見ると、数字はほぼ予測どおりに推移してきたという。

「K値はスピードメーター。感染拡大率が変化する速度を測ります。ボールを投げたとき最も速いのは投げた瞬間で、その先は頂点に向かって上がっている最中でも、勢いはどんどん落ちる。その勢いの落ち方は一定です。新型コロナの感染者数も、同様に感染拡大率が一定の勢いで落ちると仮定すると、感染拡大期の最初の8日間ぐらいを見れば、その後の数が予測できます」 。

そう説明する中野教授は、各国の感染状況をK値で予測してきた。その結果、「仮定」は「観測事実」になったと胸を張る。

現在の感染状況について 「私は中国由来の流行を第1波、欧米由来を第2波と分けており、いまは第3波ですが、前の二つをまとめて第1波とするなら、第2波、または小流行と呼んでもいい。そのスタートは6月22日ごろ、推定感染日だと6月8日ごろで、第1波のくすぶりではなく新たな流行です。東京の新宿のあとを追うように、同時期に全国で感染者が急増しているので、発生源は新宿の可能性が高い。潜伏していたものが表に出てきたのなら同期しません」 。

しかし、勢いは落ちる。 「新型コロナの感染者数は、日本をはじめアジア諸国では自然減の傾向が非常に強い。世界中を見渡しても指数関数的に増え続ける国はありません。また日本における感染拡大率の落ち方は、どの地域も同じです。累計感染者数の推移を対数グラフにすると、高さは違っても、形は都市部でも地方でも同じなのです」 。

もっとも、東京都の今後の感染者数だけは予測しにくいというのである。 「K値は感染者数をもとに計算するので、検査態勢が大幅に変わると影響を受ける。夜の街への集団検査が混ざると、感染者数の波をとらえるのが難しくなる」。

そこで集団検査が行われていない大都市圏の8府県、神奈川、千葉、埼玉、愛知、大阪、兵庫、京都、福岡について、K値を使って新規感染者数の推移を予測してみた。すると先述のように、7月9日前後が山の頂になり、ピークアウトしている、という結果が導き出された。

そして、東京についてもこう結論づける。 「人口が多く、集団検査を行っていない板橋、練馬、豊島、世田谷、渋谷、大田、港の各区の総計で7月初めまでの累計感染者数の推移を見ると、先の8府県とほぼ同じになります。新宿区からの絶え間ない感染者の流入はあっても無視できる程度で、8府県と同様、7月9日前後にピークを迎えた可能性が高いです」。

東京大学児玉龍彦教授のエピセンター感染爆発論、大阪大学中野貴志教授の「K値」論。いずれを聴いても「30万人規模のPCR検査・抗体検査・抗原検査」の必要があると分かる。感染者数を正確に把握しなければK値の予測が立てられない。感染者数を正確に把握しないK値予測など、楽観論の極みである。

今日スタートする観光需要喚起策「Go Toトラベルキャンペーン」(以下、Go To)。この事業を1895億円で受託したのは「ツーリズム産業共同提案体」(以下、共同提案体)なる団体だ。この「共同提案体」に名を連ねる観光関連の14団体から、自民党幹事長の二階俊博をはじめ自民党の議員37名に対し、少なくとも約4200万円の献金が行われていることが「週刊文春」の取材で分かった。

献金を受けていることがわかった二階幹事長 「共同提案体」は、全国旅行業協会(ANTA)、日本旅行業協会(JATA)、日本観光振興協会という3つの社団法人と、JTBなど大手旅行会社4社で構成される。加えて全国旅館ホテル生活衛生同業組合連合会、日本旅館協会といった宿泊業の関連団体が協力団体として総計14団体が参加している。

Go To実現のため奔走した二階は1992年から30年近くANTAの会長をつとめている。 「ANTAは全国5500社の旅行業者を傘下に収める組織で、そこのトップである二階はいわば、”観光族議員”のドン。

3月2日にANTAをはじめとする業界関係者が自民党の『観光立国調査会』で、観光業者の経営支援や観光需要の喚起策などを要望したのですが、これに調査会の最高顧問を務める二階が『政府に対して、ほとんど命令に近い形で要望したい』と応じた。ここからGo To構想が始まったのです」(自民党関係者) 「観光立国調査会」は、二階が最高顧問を務め、会長は二階の最側近で知られる林幹雄幹事長代理、事務局長は二階と同じ和歌山県選出の鶴保庸介参院議員だ。

「週刊文春」取材班は、上記の「自民党観光立国調査会」の役職者全37名の政治資金を精査した。すると収支報告書を入手できた2011年分から2018年分までの間で、該当する団体や業界からの献金が約4200万円に上ることが分かった。

中でも突出して多いのが、二階幹事長への献金額だ。二階が代表を務める「自由民主党和歌山県第3選挙区支部」の収支報告書には、次の記載がある。
・全国旅館政治連盟(全国旅館ホテル生活衛生同業組合連合会の政治団体)2014年、2016年、2017年計330万円。
・国観連政経懇話会(日本旅館協会の前身の政治団体)2012年100万円。
・旅館ホテル政経懇話会(日本旅館協会の政治団体)2014年、2017年計40万円 。 合計で470万円の献金を受けていることが分かる。二階は運輸大臣を務め、観光行政に強い影響力を持つことで知られる。

「飲食業・観光業がコロナ禍で壊滅的な状況にある。困っている業界を救う為にゴーツーキャンペーンを実施する。」真っ赤な嘘である。予備費10兆円、困窮する業界に即座に給付していけば良い。

二階俊博。老害のクソ爺の利権を維持する為に国民が怖がりながら旅行し、受け入れるホテル・旅館・観光施設・業界側も「感染者を出してはいけない」と神経・体力をすり減らす。

安倍晋三は感染症対策を何も講じていない。「経済活動を再開させねばならない」とほざくのは戯言・空言・うわごとである。

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