ロバートシラー教授CAPEレシオS&Pケースシラー住宅価格指数

CAPEレシオ・シラーPERとは、S&Pケースシラー住宅価格指数の開発者の一人であるロバートシラー教授が考案したPERの一種で、過去十年間の実績利益の平均値に物価変動を加味して計算する株価指標のこと。

CAPEレシオは、一時的要因による収益の変動や景気循環の影響が除外され、実質的な株価の割高・割安が測れる指標である。

ロバートシラー教授はITバブル崩壊・リーマンショックを事前に見抜いていた。ノーベル経済学受賞者のエール大学教授である。

シッタデールが7・8倍、ミレニアムが5・2倍、ポイント72が5・5倍。大手ヘッジファンドが個人投資家並にレバレッジを効かせてウォール街で博打を打っている。

レポ市場は企業が短期間でお互いに資金を融通する為利用するシステム。

昨年9月JPモルガンのヨーロッパでの取引の失敗でレポ市場の資金が枯渇し、金利が暴騰した。

12月には国際決済銀行BISから「レバレッジの規模が大きすぎる」と警告が出される。

今年の3月には数社のヘッジファンドが破綻に直面し、危機の度にFRBは金利を下げ、量的金融緩和を行ってきた。緩和マネーはレポ市場に流れ込む。

ウォール街はヘッジファンド無法地帯であり、ファンドが危ない賭けをしても、最後はFRBに救われるというシステムが出来上がっている。

9月以降の「かくれQE4」は月6兆6000億円であり、現在FRBの大量緩和は無制限である。

トランプが「アメリカ経済は絶好調だ」と叫ぶために利用した政策にレパトリエーション減税が有る。GAFAを筆頭とする多国籍企業が海外の業績利益をアメリカに戻す際に減税する、企業は戻した資金で自社株買いをする。

アメリカの自社株買いの総額は過去1年で78兆円であり、アップル社だけで7兆円。

自社株買いで株価を吊り上げれば経営者の業績となり、経営者報酬が跳ね上がる。借金してまで自社株買いをする大企業も多い。

サブプライムローンのサブプライムモーゲージ債CDO。自動車サブプライムローンのローン担保証券ABS。レバレッジドローンのCLO。住宅ローンの住宅ローン担保証券MBS。

ウォール街の錬金術。ローンを組ませて返済不能のリスクを避ける為にローンを組ませた権利を債権化・証券化して投資家に売る。

金融機関は儲けだけを盗り、リスクは投資家に押し付ける。

ここにきてトランプ、抗マラリア薬ヒドロキシクロロキンの副作用で「私は自社株買いが好きではない。自社株買いは何も産み出さない。企業は従業員の雇用に企業資産を役立てるべきだ。」と手のひら返し発言をする。

アメリカ全土のロックダウンで失業者は2300万人。

従業員のクビを切り易いアメリカ企業の従来の体質には頬かむりして、11月の選挙を見据え、「失業者は企業が責任持って救え」と自社株買いの推奨を翻す。

リアリティショーの「ユーアーファイアード」とは真逆の姿勢を見せ付ける。トランプ人気は再燃するだろうか。

ロバートシラー教授のCAPEレシオで判定すると、FRBの利下げ・量的金融緩和、自社株買い、ヘッジファンドの博打で再上昇しつつあるダウ平均は完全なバブルである。

S&Pケースシラー住宅価格指数で測ると、現在アメリカの不動産バブルはサブプライムローン破綻の水準を遥かに超えるバブルである。

サブプライムローン破綻・CDOデフォルトが同時発生してベアスターンズ・リーマンブラザーズは破綻した。

2300万人の失業者は自動車・住宅のローンを返済できるだろうか。

リーマンショック後の経済成長率は0・1%だった、現在マイナス3・0%である。リーマンショック後の30倍、それ以上の大不況・恐慌が待ち構えている。

日経平均株価の下落を「コロナショック」とばかり呼んでいると、世界の金融バブルが大崩壊しつつある現状認識が甘くなる。

CLO・コラタライズドローンオブリゲーション、世界一保有している国は日本である。

日本の金融機関がドイツ銀行を抜いて世界一ヤバイ。

今そこにある危機を報じないのが日本の第四権力・マスメディアのだらしなさである。

くれぐれも個人投資家は金融市場から逃げておくようにお勧めする。

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