ルネサンステクノロジーズAI個人投資家を喰い始める

日本の主婦ミセスワタナベが、へそくりで株を購入する時、株バブルは弾ける。バブルは弾けて、初めてバブルだったと気付く。バブル最中の盛り上がりは、ド素人に「自分も儲かることが出来る」と勘違いさせる熱狂を伴う。

FAAMG5社の時価総額が、東証一部上場企業2170社の総額を超えている。3月に阿保のトランプがばら撒いた経済対策費が220兆円。2~6月にFRBが量的緩和した緩和マネーが320兆円。現在、阿保のトランプは選挙対策に追加経済対策で100兆円のばら撒きを協議中である。

ロックダウン中、給料に6~7万円上乗せされて受給したアメリカ人がロビンフッド証券で個人投資家に成り、FAAMG銘柄を購入する。
540兆円の資金がNY株式市場のマネーゲームに雪崩れ込む。
実態経済が止まってもダウ平均・ナスダックが異常暴騰するカラクリである。

ゴールドマンサックス・クレディスイス・ドイツ銀行・アムロ証券・モルガンスタンレー・メリルリンチ。JPモルガン・バンクオブアメリカ・シティグループ・ウェルズファーゴ。ルネサンステクノロジー・パークシャーハサウェイ・クォンタムファンド・ブリッジウォーターアソシエイツ・ブラックロック・バンガード・ステートストリート。
日経株式市場にまで出張ってくるハイエナどもが、個人投資家と一緒に共存・共栄する筈が無い。

何処かで個人投資家を喰い者にしようと、手ぐすねを引いて待ち構えている。3日、今のところダウ平均が-335、ナスダックが-414である。

ルネサンステクノロジーのAIが本格稼働すれば、こんなモノではない。一晩に千ドル超える値上がり・値下がりが待ち受ける。

クオンツ系AI系のヘッジファンドは、ルネサンステクノロジーの売買に追随する。クオンツ系AI系ヘッジファンドは、1秒間に何千回の取引を行う超高速取引が特色である。ヘッジファンドには守秘義務を伴うネットワークが有る。ネットワークに繋がる香港の長老が「売れ」と指示を出せば、クオンツ系AI系そしてネットワークに繋がるヘッジファンドが同時に売る。個人投資家の大群が「株価はもっと騰がる」と買い越しロングポジションを取れば、ヘッジファンドネットワークは空売りショートを仕掛ける。

レイダリオ・ブリッジウォーターアソシエイツとヘッジファンド集団が、日本に襲来して空売りを仕掛け、日銀・黒田東彦が損失補填したのが3年前だった。

個人投資家には勝てない仕組み・システム・いかさま・ペテン・詐欺が完成しているのがウォール街という博打場である。

大量の資本とネットワークを兼ね備える4大銀行・投資銀行・ヘッジファンドには、個人投資家は絶対に勝てない。
負ける勝負には手を出さないことである。

「バイマイアベノミクス」にはウォール街という博打場の全貌が見えていなかった。「総理を辞めれば済む」では終われない重い罪をアベノミクスは背負っている。

安倍晋三。菅義偉・二階俊博に操られた総理職を辞めて清々しているか。申し送り事項として「アベノミクスは自分一代で終わりにして欲しい」と懇願したらどうか。
菅義偉・二階俊博という老害が怖いか。何処が安倍一強なのか。

安倍晋三首相が退陣を表明したが、アベノミクスの期間に日本経済は停滞したため、日本の国際的地位が顕著に低下した。
企業の利益は増加し、株価が上昇したが、非正規就業者を増やして人件費の伸びを抑制したため、実質賃金は下落した。
その結果、「放置された低生産性と、不安定化した労働市場」という負の遺産がもたらされた。

アベノミクスとは何だったのかを考えるにあたって、一番簡単なのは、アベノミクスが始まった2012年と19年を比較してみることだ。

第1に見られる変化は、世界経済における日本の地位が顕著に低下し続けたことだ。
12年では中国のGDP(国内総生産)は、日本の1.4倍だった。ところが、19年、中国のGDPは日本の2.9倍になった。つまり、乖離が2倍以上に拡大した。

アベノミクスの期間に、日本経済が停滞する半面で中国が成長したから、こうなったのだ。
成長したのは中国だけでない。12年のアメリカのGDPは、日本の2.6倍だった。ところが19年には、アメリカのGDPは日本の4.0倍になった。このように、アメリカとの乖離も拡大した。

同様の傾向は、世界のさまざまな国との間で生じている。
つまり、12年から19年までの間に、日本は世界の趨勢に立ち遅れ、相対的な地位を低下させたのだ。
アベノミクスが何をもたらしたかについて、こうした数字ほど雄弁なものはない。

さまざまな国際比較ランキングでも、日本の地位は低下し続けている。
12年の国際経営開発研究所(IMD)の世界競争力ランキングで、日本は27位だった。これでも決して高いランキングとはいえないのだが、20年版では、日本は過去最低の34位にまで低下した。

デジタル技術では、日本は62位だった。対象は63の国・地域だから、最後から2番目ということになる。

つぎに、国内の経済を見よう。
毎月勤労統計調査によれば、2012年の実質賃金指数は104.5だった。これが19年には99.9となった。7年間で4.4%の下落だ。
GDPは低率とはいえ増加したが、実質賃金は、このように低下したのだ。

名目賃金は上がっている。しかし、この間に消費税率の引き上げがあったので、それに応じて名目賃金が上昇するのは当然のことだ。だから、賃金の動向は、実質値で見る必要がある。

ところで、安倍内閣は、春闘に介入した。
それによって、14年以降、毎年2%を超える賃上げが実現した。
なぜこれが日本全体の賃金上昇につながらなかったのか?
その理由は、春闘が対象とするのは、労働者全体の中のごく一部にすぎないことだ。
「春闘賃上げ率」で集計される対象は、資本金10億円以上かつ従業員1000人以上の労働組合がある企業だ。

しかし、これは経済全体の一部でしかない。実際、製造業の資本金10億円以上の企業の従業員数は、法人企業統計が対象とする全企業の従業員総数の6.9%でしかない。
だから、春闘に介入することによって経済全体の賃金を引き上げようというのは、まったくの見当違いということになる。

賃金の伸びを抑えた基本的要因は、非正規雇用者を増やしたことだ。

アベノミクスの成果としてしばしば指摘されるのは、企業利益が増加し、株価が上昇したことだ。
企業利益の増加は事実だ。しかし、こうなったのは、生産性が高まったためではない。また、新しいビジネスモデルが開発されたからでもない。
実際、日本の生産性の伸びは、世界の動向から遅れている。

利益が増加したのは、売上高が若干増加する中で、原価の増加率がそれを下回ったからだ。中でも、人件費の増加率が低かったからだ。

このメカニズムは、つぎのとおりだ。
法人企業統計で、企業の売上高などについて、2019年10~12月期を12年10~12月期と比べる。
売上高はこの間に8.4%増加した。年率では1.2%であり、あまり高い伸び率ではない。
それにもかかわらず、営業利益はこの間に39.9%という非常に高い伸び率になったのだ。

ここで、「売上原価」と「販売費及び一般管理費」の合計を「総原価」と呼ぶことにしよう(売上高から総原価を引いたものが営業利益になる)。
営業利益が高い伸びを示したのは、総原価の増加率が7.3%と、売上高増加率より若干低かったからだ。

営業利益の売上高に対する比率は4.3%でしかない。このため、売上高増加率と総原価増加率が少しでも違えば、営業利益は大きく変動するのである。  仮にすべての費目が売上高と同率で増加したとしたら、営業利益の増加率も8.4%でしかなかったはずだ。

総原価の中でも、人件費の増加率は4.9%にとどまっている。
人件費を抑えられた大きな原因は、低賃金で働く非正規就業者が増えたことだ。

労働力統計によると、13年1月から20年1月の間に、雇用者は約504万人増えたが、その64%にあたる322万人は、非正規雇用者だ。これによって賃金上昇を抑えることができた。
これが営業利益を大きく膨らませた基本的な原因だ。

結局のところ、「企業の売上高は8.4%増加したにすぎないが、非正規雇用者を増やすことによって人件費の伸びを4.9%に抑えられたので、営業利益が約40%増加した」ということになる。

なお、売り上げ増は、12年10月以降、円安が進行したことによる。円安はアベノミクスでもたらされたといわれることが多いのだが、安倍政権の発足以前から生じている。

こうなったのは、ユーロ危機の収束で、リスクオフ(円に投資)の流れが終わったからだ。

生産性を上げるのでなく、非正規の低賃金労働に頼る構造は、労働市場の不安定化をもたらす。

事実、コロナショックに見舞われた今年1月から6月の間に、非正規雇用者は105万人減少した(正規はむしろ増えている)。

つまり、アベノミクスの期間に増えた非正規就業者322万人のほぼ3分の1に相当する人々が、この半年間ですでに職を失った。
失業率がさほど高まらないのは、その人たちが求職活動をせず、「非労働力人口」になったからだ。

なお、1月から6月の間に、完全失業者は30万人増で、非労働力人口は62万人増となっている。これらの和は、ほぼ非正規雇用者の減少数に等しい。
つまり、非正規雇用者で職を失った人のうち30万人程度が失業者となり、60万人程度が非労働力人口になったものと解釈される。

結局のところ、アベノミクスとは、生産性を向上させることなく、非正規の低賃金労働に依存して企業利益を増やし、株価を上げたことだった。
負の遺産として、低生産性が放置され、労働市場が不安定化した。

株価の上昇は、企業利益の増加のほか、GPIF(年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人)の株式購入と日本銀行のETF購入が支えた。ETFを購入している中央銀行は、日銀だけだ。

日銀のETF購入について、OECDの2019年4月の「対日経済審査報告書」は、「市場の規律を損ないつつある」と批判している。
企業利益の増加は、利益剰余金を増加させた(これは、しばしば「内部留保」といわれるのだが、正確な表現ではない)。
利益剰余金は、12年には250兆円だったが、18年には450兆円を超えた。

しかし、使い道がないので、企業は現金・預金の保有を増やした。残高は12年の150兆円から200兆円程度に増加した。
これは、顕著な「金余り」現象だ。こうした中で、貸し出しが増えるはずはない。金融緩和政策が機能しなかった基本的な理由は、ここにある。

アベノミクスで中心的な地位を占めたのは、日銀による異次元金融緩和政策だが、日銀当座預金を増やしただけで、空回りした。

消費者物価指数の対前年上昇率を2%以上にすることが目標とされた。この目標を2年で実現するとしたのだが、いまに至るまで達成されていない。
もっとも、これはもともと無意味な目標だった。なぜなら、日本の消費者物価の動向は、為替レートと原油価格でほぼ決まるからだ。金融政策で物価を動かすことはできない。

上記目標を達成するため、市中から国債を買い上げる量的緩和策が取られた。しかし、日銀当座預金が積み上がるだけの結果となり、マネー(銀行預金)は増えなかった。上で見たような企業の金余り現象の中で貸し出し需要がないのは、当然のことだ。つまり、量的緩和策は空回りしたわけだ。

日銀は、国債を年80兆円程度買い上げるとしていたが、購入額は2017年頃をピークに減少し、19年末には12兆~15兆円程度にまで縮小している。つまり、異次元金融緩和の量的緩和政策は、すでにひっそりと終了しているのだ。  ただし、これまで買い上げた膨大な額の国債は残っている。これを将来どう処理すればよいのだろうか? これがアベノミクスの第2の負の遺産だ。

なお、財政再建目標は、何度か延期された後、新型コロナウイルス対策の財政支出激増の中で、雲散霧消してしまった。
破綻した財政が、アベノミクスの第3の負の遺産だ。 ダイヤモンドオンライン。

今、ダウ平均は-709、ナスダックは-549である。一夜限り、今晩だけの恐怖ではない。くれぐれも個人投資家は金融市場から逃げ遂せて欲しい。

起床したらダウ平均は一時-1000を付けたそうだ。市場が閉まる30分前に買い戻しが入っている。典型的なヘッジファンドが個人投資家を喰うパターンである。ルネサンステクノロジーのAIも稼働したようだ。

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