メルビンキャピタルVSロビンフッダー・欲望の街

現在、大量のヘッジファンドが倒産の危機に陥っている。ヘッジファンドの代表格はゲイブプロトキンのメルビンキャピタル、1月27日に倒産間際まで追い込まれた。

ヘッジファンドを追い詰めたのはロビンフッダー・個人投資家の大群である。アメリカでは新型コロナの給付金で、ロビンフッド証券のゲーム仕立ての投資を始める素人投資家が急増した。ロビンフッド証券のゲームでは、専門家のテクニックであるオプション取り引きも容易に出来る。かつての日本のFX億り人・ビットコイン憶り人の如く、アメリカ個人投資家が爆増している。

ド素人の個人投資家が集まるネットの掲示板スレッドがレティットである。ウォールストリートベッツという掲示板には「予想がピタリと的中する投資顧問カリスマ」が何人か存在する。この掲示板に「ヘッジファンドがゲームストップの株を空売りしている」という情報が流れた。

ゲームストップはゲームソフト小売りチェーン。テキサス州本拠地で5000店舗展開している。

レティットの「投資顧問カリスマ」は何百万人のファンを持つ。投資顧問カリスタたちが口を揃えて「ゲームストップのコールオプションの購入」を勧める。1月11日、ゲームストップの代表取締役に物言う株主・ライアンコーエンが就任。ゲームストップ株の「買い」の根拠である。

空売りを専門としているアメリカの投資情報会社・シトロンリサーチがヘッジファンドに「ゲームストップの空売り」を推奨した。多くのヘッジファンド・プロ集団がゲームストップに「超絶な空売り」を仕掛ける。

ヘッジファンドは「売り」、個人投資家は「買い」の対決となる。

コールオプションとは「その価格で買う権利」である。アウトオブマネーとは短期間で、その金額まで株価は上昇しないと見なされる、現状からかなり離れたオプション限度額である。個人投資家の大群の「買い」はアウトオブマネーに迫る。ロビンフッド証券はアウトオブマネーに達するとオプション購入者に支払い義務が生じるので、大量の株をヘッジ買いする運びとなる。ゲームストップの株価は更に騰がる。

一方、ゲームストップに空売りを仕掛けたヘッジファンドたちは株価が急騰した為、追証マージンコールが掛かり、買い戻しせざるを得なくなる。空売りのロスカットである。空売りに失敗すると、高くなった株を買い戻す為、空売りの踏み上げが起こる。ゲームストップの株価は更に騰がる。

ゲームストップの株価は2週間で1700%上昇する。

ヘッジファンドの代表格メルビンキャピタルの代表はゲイブプロトキンである。ゲイブプロトキンは空売りで、年30%のリターンパフォーマンスを発揮するトップファンドマネージャーである。14年に独立してメルビンキャピタルを立ち上げる前には、数々の大手ヘッジファンドのポートフォリオマネージャーとして活躍してきた。

メルビンキャピタルの運用資産は1兆3000億円。ゲームストップ株の失敗で₋、年明け3週間でマイナス30%以上4000億円の損失を出し、倒産寸前となる。ゲイブプロトキンは以前働いていた大手ヘッジファンド、スティーブコーエンのポイント72・ケンスグリフィンのシタデルに泣きつき、2社合計で3000億円の資金注入で倒産を逃れる。

ポイント72・シタデルはメルビンキャピタルに19年以来、1000億円の資金を投資している。メルビンキャピタルの倒産は、ポイント72・シタデルの投資資金回収に実害を及ぼす。

アンドリューレフト代表シトロンリサーチは1月29日、「今後、空売りに関するリポートを公表しない。」と敗北宣下を出す。

個人投資家の大群が多くのヘッジファンドに大損失を与える。小さなヘッジファンドは倒産するだろう。しかし、大手ヘッジファンドは連絡網と相互投資で結び付いている。「自助・自助・自助・そして絆」である。

カジノ資本主義のウォール街は大手が群がって、中小ヘッジファンド・新興ヘッジファンドを打ち負かすシステムである。「癒着の構造」で群れを成すプロ集団に、ロビンフッダーは勝てるのだろうか。

【ニューヨーク時事】インターネット交流サイト(SNS)で連携した個人投資家による投機的取引で米株価が乱高下した問題を受け、政府や議会で規制論が強まっている。SNS上で特定銘柄の買いを呼び掛ける行為の違法性の有無や、ヘッジファンドによる空売り規制強化の是非が焦点になりそうだ。

米議会下院の金融サービス委員会は18日に関係者を呼び、公聴会を開く。証券取引委員会(SEC)は、詳細な株式売買記録やSNSでの投稿状況などの調査に着手した。

米株式市場では1月下旬、業績不振の米ゲーム販売大手ゲームストップ株などの株価が急騰。株価下落を見込んで、空売りしていたヘッジファンドに対し、SNSで連携した個人投資家が大量の買い注文で対抗する形となった。ファンドは、高値での買い戻しを迫られ、巨額損失を被った。

2月に入ると、値動きは落ち着きつつあるものの、個人投資家の投機的な買いはバイオ関連企業株や商品市場などにも広がった。

SNS「レディット」では、ヘッジファンドを敵視し、ゲームストップなど特定の銘柄や関連する金融派生商品を買うようあおる書き込みが相次いでおり、法令で禁じられた「相場操縦」に当たる可能性が指摘されている。民主党のウォーレン上院議員は「どの程度連携すると違法なのか、明確性が欠如している」と指摘。インターネット上での行為も含め、定義をはっきりさせる必要があると主張する。

ヘッジファンドによる空売りへの批判も多い。今回の問題では、株価急騰に慌てたヘッジファンドによる、損切りのための多額の買い戻しが、株価変動を増幅させた。行き過ぎた空売りは、市場を不安定化させ、「投資家に損害を与える略奪的な行為だ」(ウォーターズ下院金融サービス委員長)と批判する声も上がっており、公聴会でも論点となる見通しだ。

東洋経済オンライン。
株価の乱高下が続いている。

ただし、2月にはいってからは、アメリカの株価は1月末の急落から回復基調にあり、ナスダックなどは再び史上最高値を更新した。

■「ロビンフッダーの反乱」が今後もたらすものとは?   確かに、下がる要因はすべて消え去った。理由は少なくとも4つある。第1に、「ロビンフッダーたちの反乱」は鎮圧された。第2に、この反乱によって、多くの空売りをするヘッジファンドは窮地に追い込まれ、もはや空売りをする力がなくなった。

第3に、同様に、アクティビスト(いわゆる物言う株主)のように、企業投資が悪い企業などについての空売りレポートで有名なシトロン・リサーチがこの種の空売りレポートはもうやらないと表明した。第4に、安いときに買い、割高になったら売るという、ごく普通の「ロングアンドショート戦略」をとる長期運用ファンドまでもが打撃を受けた。こうした戦略のファンドは縮小し、「ロング(買い持ち)オンリー」のファンドばかりになった。

売る主体がいなくなれば、株は下がらない。下がる懸念はまったくなくなったに等しい。ほとんどすべての投資家が買いに回ったのである。

しかし、それこそが、バブルの終わりを招く。今年、バブルが崩壊する可能性はますます高まったのだ。

なぜなのか、改めて説明しよう。

まず、ロビンフッドとロビンフッダーから。ロビンフッドとはご存じの通り、アメリカの新興系のネット証券会社である。手数料は無料であり、個人投資家、それも初心者を中心に口座をかき集めた。これらの個人投資家がロブンフッダーだが、彼らは、少額で投資ギャンブルを楽しむため、初めて株を買うのに、個別株オプションなどを中心に取引する。少額で一攫千金の可能性があるからだが、これはギャンブルゲームそのものだ。

新型コロナショックで、給付金がこの取引に回っているといわれているが、いずれにせよ、ロビンフッダーは急増し、ロビンフッドは収益も取引も急拡大させた。

ロビンフッダーたちは、業績の悪い企業の株式、いわば「くず株」のような株式に対する投資をしていた。その1つが、ゲームストップ株だったのである。業績は低迷、先行きの見通しも薄く、値下がり(低迷)を続けていたが、一連の買いで価格が上昇していた。これに目をつけたヘッジファンドが空売りをして、素人の火遊びを食い物にして儲けようとしていた。

■アメリカではよくある話、日本のライブドアブーム彷彿  この状況に対し、ロブンフッダーたちは、彼らがよく使うSNSを利用して、逆襲を呼びかけ、買いを集めて、空売りをしていたヘッジファンドを締め上げ(ショートスクイーズ)た。買い戻しを余儀なくさせ、ヘッジファンドなどに大きな損失を負わせた。この結果、ゲームストップ株は、急騰し、16倍前後にもなった。これを面白がってやっていたのがロビンフッダーたちである。

しかし、取引が急増したことにより、その取引注文を受けていた証券会社ロビンフッドは当局から、何十億ドルもの「供託金」を要求されることになる。これが払えないので、ロビンフッドは資金調達に奔走した。そうこうしているうちに、さらに取引が急増、株価も乱高下、供託金要求額も急増、同社はゲームストップ株などの取引を一時停止したのである。

この結果、ヘッジファンドサイドが息を吹き返し、株価は失速。ロビンフッダーたちは、取引停止により損失を被り、ヘッジファンドサイドは破綻を免れたのである。

これに対しては、メディアは「ドナルド・トランプ前大統領による政治の分断に続いて市場も分断されている」「ウォールストリートと大衆投資家の対決だ」などと囃しているが、それは「nothing new」であり、いつも起きていることだ。

また、いまどきの日本の個人投資家たちは「日本では考えられない」などとコメントしているようだ。だが、彼らは経験不足すぎて知らないようだが、2000年代前半、日本で起きた「ライブドアブーム」とは、まさにまったく同じような現象だった。

ネット証券が発達し、1990年代末の金融危機からの経済危機で大混乱するなか、アメリカのネットバブルが日本にも波及した。その後、2001年の世界同時多発テロやエンロン事件などで株式市場全体が暴落するなか、若い個人投資家のネットトレーダーたちが株式に群がり、新興株を中心にネット株バブルを作り上げていた。

彼らは、「祭り」と称して、面白そうな株に群がった。「IPO(新規株式公開)バブル」「株式分割バブル」、そして「くず株バブル」などもあった。足利銀行株で大儲けをしたトレーダーが、東京タワーから一万円札をばら撒いたのは、この流れだった。

彼らのくず株取引は、もう破綻、上場廃止が決まっている銘柄、監理銘柄に群がり、最低になると1円で、その下はないから、1円でみんな買って、面白半分に2円にする投資家が出てくるのを待ち、2円になると、祭りが盛り上がって、それが12円ぐらいになることもあり、大騒ぎをしていたのである。

実はこのころ、ドイツ銀行のロンドンのヘッジファンド部門が、想定外の値動きが続き、音を上げて「デイトレーダー経済学者」として有名だった私のところに、「日本の個人投資家は何を考えているのか教えてほしい」と依頼が入ったことがある。

■個人投資家が「祭り」が好きなワケ  この辺は、拙著『ネット株の心理学』に詳しいが、要は、個人投資家は「祭り」が好きなのである。なぜか。「祭り」は儲かるからである。

では「祭り」とは何か。すなわち、人が集まることだ。何かの祝いごと、何かの決めごとで、1カ所に集まる。つまりは、バブルの発生源である。

個人投資家がバブルを作り、「機関投資家をやっつける、あるいは一時的に力を持つ」のはよくあることだ。1980年代末の日本株バブルもそうした状況に似ていた。厳密に言えばやっつけたわけではないが、日本の狂った状況に投資家、個人も企業も金融機関も巻き込まれた。「日本人はクレージーだ」と指をくわえてバブルをみていたのが、当時の外国人投資家である。

過去をさかのぼれば、18世紀の「南海泡沫バブル」も、「ミシシッピーバブル」も同じである。大衆、いや烏合の衆の力は破壊力があり、馬鹿にしているインテリ、プロフェッショナルほど、これにやられるのである。

本当のプロなら「烏合の衆ほど恐ろしいものはない」とよく知っている。そして、現在が「烏合の衆の時代」であることは、賢明な現代人なら誰でも知っている。

したがって、今起きていることは、ごく普通のことなのである。社会の分断でもなんでもない、バブル末期に起きる現象なのである。普通の投資対象がバブルで上がりすぎて買うものがなくなり、くずに群がるぐらいしかない。

■「祭り」はいよいよ最後のステージに入った  なぜなら、まだ上がっていないものは、くずぐらいしか残っていないのである。だからバブル末期には、普段人気のないものがバブルになる。そういうものはもともと価格水準が低いから、上げ余地が大きく、激しいバブルになりやすい。

まともな投資対象の株式では、それは日本株だろう。このところ世界で出遅れていた日本株が上がってきたのは、そういうことだ。宴、祭りは「最後のステージ」に入った。

一連のロビンフッド騒ぎが「バブルの断末魔の叫び」であることは、バブルの最終段階のアナウンスメントだが、ロビンフッドのおかげで、さらにバブル崩壊の条件はそろってしまった。それは、売り方をすべて壊滅させたことである。もう買い手しかない。売り手がすべてギブアップした。もう上がるしかない。

では、むしろこれからバブルは加速するのでは? と思われるだろう。 そのとおりだ。だからこそ、崩壊するのである。

ここから買うのは、狂った投資家、いや正確な言い方をすれば異常に強気の投資家しかない。売り手はいないから、出来高が少ないまま、ハイスピードで上がっていく。売る人がいない、ということは、この商いが成立するためには、誰かが売りに回らなくてはならない。

それは誰か。今まで買ってきた人であり、今買っている人である。彼らが売れば、下がる。下がると、今買っている人である。バブルのピークとうすうす感じながら買った人が損失を抱えれば、パニックになって売る。

まさに、最後の最後にゲームストップ株を買ったロビンフッダーがパニックになっているように、インテリのお高くとまっている機関投資家たちが売り始める。含み損水準まで下がってくる。慌てて売る。

このような「売りスパイラル」がすべての株、とりわけ上がりすぎていた、アメリカのハイテク株で起こるのである。

ゲームストップ株の姿は、今後のアメリカ大型株と同じであり、数カ月後の運命なのである。

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