ポールボルカーのインフレ退治・ばいばいアベノミクス

ポールアドルフボルカーJUNIORは経済学者。カーター・レーガン政権下で第12代連邦準備制度理事会FRBの議長を務めた。

新金融調節方式ボルカーショックと呼ばれる金融引き締め政策を断行した。79年に11・9%だったフェデラルファンド金利・政策金利はボルカーにより引き上げられる。

79年10月6日、土曜日。ボルカーは緊急の臨時FOMCを招集した。この時、インフレ率は12・1%。FFレートは13・8%。10月6日のFOMCで「マネーサプライを思い切り絞り込む」「フェデラルファンド金利・FFレートのターゲットは決めない。市場に任せて自然にFFレートが良い収まり処に行くまで放置する。」と決断。

インフレ率のピークは14・6%。FFレートは17・6%まで上昇。

FOMCの前も後も、インフレ率よりもFFレートが高かった。

FOMCの6か月後、ハイパーインフレの息の根を止めることが出来た。

インフレ退治と引き換えに、GDPは3%以上減少。産業稼働率は60%に低下。失業率は11%に跳ね上がる。

ボルカーは政治家・建設業・農業従事者、広範な層から抗議を受け続ける。

3年間の金融引き締め政策で、インフレ率は83年には10%以上も減少し、3・2%まで低下。失業率は大幅に悪化した。

金融引き締めから緩和に転じたことで、アメリカ経済は活気を取り戻し、GDP・産業稼働率は向上し、失業率は低下した。

ボルカーは、レーガン政権から規制緩和を進めるには不適任と見られ解任された。

10年、オバマ大統領は「ボルカールール」と呼ぶ銀行規制案を提案した。このルールは投資銀行に対してヘッジファンド及び未上場企業への投資や所有を禁ずるもの、自己勘定取引についても制限を加える。

10年、ドイツでの講演で、投資銀行の自己勘定取引を制限するボルカールールの導入により、高リスクの取り引きを規制し、投資銀行のヘッジファンド化を避ける事で、デリバティブ市場の透明性を確保する必要があると発言した。

取引相手がリスク負担を十分把握出来ない状態でリスクの再配分が行われることが、世界金融危機の際に、アイスランド・ギリシャのシステミックリスクを招いたことの反省を念頭に置いた発言。

ボルカールールでウォール街を規制すべき間、FRBが実施したのは、量的金融緩和政策QEである。QE1・QE2・QE3。世間では20年に新型コロナが襲来したので無制限の量的金融緩和が開始されたと言われている。

19年の9月から、「隠れQE4」が20年以降まで続けられている。19年8月14日に2年国債・10年国債の逆イールドが発生する。9月16日にレポ市場の金利がリーマンショック以来の高値に跳ね上がる。NY連銀が「緊急の資金注入」を実施し、そのまま「隠れQE4」として、続行された。

リーマンショックでは、サブプライムモーゲージ債権のバブルが弾け切っていないのである。サブプライムモーゲージ債権こそ、ボルカーの言う「高リスクが再配分される」金融詐欺商品デリバティブである。

リーマンショック以降、金融市場が危機に晒される度に、量的金融緩和政策が5回に渡って実行された。

一見すると、現在のアメリカの8・6%のインフレ。

ロシアのウクライナへの軍事侵略による、エネルギー・食料不足。中国のゼロコロナ政策による半導体・電子部品の不足、世界の工場の停止。グローバル経済の物流の分断。

地政学リスクにより、インフレが高まっている様に見える。

しかし、量的緩和で金融市場に緩和マネーを注入し続けねばならないというアメリカの体質。FRBの政策により、ドルを刷り過ぎて、ドルの価値が下がった。というのも、インフレの大きな原因である。

パウエル議長の利上げとQTは、非常に拙い。「利上げの定石セオリーは0・25%ずつの利上げ」「0・5%の利上げは異例」「0・75%の利上げは最悪だ」という世論は輪をかけて拙い。

8・6%のインフレを退治するには、8・6%以上の政策金利FFレートが必要なのである。

パウエル議長の様に、細切れに利上げを、ちょっとずつ重ねていくと。インフレが長引く。インフレ退治に2年間かかる。その間に、CPIショック・FOMCショック・雇用統計ショックが生じ、株価暴落が繰り返される。失業者が増える。

今年、大底を付けると予測されていた株価が、来年に大底を付けることになる。

景気が冷え込み、産業力が弱まっていく中で、QTが実施される。FRBのバランスシートに積み上げられたアメリカ国債を市場に購入させようとしても、誰が買うのだろう。

ボルカールールに規制されないまま、ウォール街はカジノ資本主義で儲ける。サブプライムモーゲージ債権と同様の、自動車版サブプライムローン担保証券ABS・不動産担保証券MBS・レバレッジドローン担保証券コラタライズドローンオブリゲーションCLOを捏造し、世界中にばら撒く。

CLOを世界一購入している国は日本である。

パウエルはボルカーに倣って、「フェデラルファンド金利はウォール街に任せて、インフレを抑制できる良い処に収まるまで放置する」くらいの荒療治を科すべきである。

ウォール街に任せれば、金融機関同士の貸付利子など短期間で爆増し、とんでもない高金利となる。FFレートの上昇・政策金利の上昇で、短期間でのインフレ退治が可能と成る。

やってみたらどうだろう。パウエル議長に非難が出れば、「ウォール街の為し足ることだ」と責任の所在を明確にすれば良い。

世界一馬鹿な中央銀行総裁は、黒田東彦である。黒田東彦の「指値オペ・イールドカーブコントロール」により、日本の国債はヘッジファンドに安く買い叩かれ、高く売りつけられている。

円安ドル高ばかり言っているが、世界同時円安が進行中である。利上げを行う欧米に対して、量的金融緩和政策を続行する日本の円は安くなる。EUユーロ円安・イギリスポンド円安・スイスフラン円安・オーストラリアドル円安。挙句の果てには、メキシコペソ円安・ジンバブエドル円安も冗談では無くなるかもしれない。

日本国民は「アベノミクスは失敗では無かった。黒田バズーカは失敗では無かった。」という黒田東彦の見栄の為に、賃金が上がらず、物価高騰するスタグフレーションに苦しむ。円安により、高齢者のタンス預金は日々、目減りしていく。

黒田東彦が「総裁でござい」と、ふんぞり返っていれば。日本列島が姥捨て山となる。今、此処にある危機なのだ。

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