ボンドマゲドンが日本で勃発する危険性・BBB社債

ボンドとは債権。
アルマゲドンとは聖書に記述されている最終戦争・人類滅亡。
債権市場は株式市場よりも遥かに規模が大きい。
債権が暴落を始めると「売りが売りを呼び」即座に大暴落に繋がる。
債権が暴落すると株・為替・金・仮想通貨など全てが同時に暴落する。
債権には逆張りが効かない。
ショート・空売り・プットオプションが債券には通用しない。
債権には株の様な資金の流動性が無いからである。
世界の金融派生商品・デリバティブはリーマンショック時の10倍・6京6000兆円。
8月14日に発生した逆イールドが次の金融市場崩壊させるまで、あと、1年ない。
次の金融市場崩壊はリーマンショック時の打撃の100倍クラスであり、1929年の世界大恐慌を上回る恐れが大いにある。
ドイツ銀行が崩壊の発端と言われている。
日本も大いに危ない。
危なくしたのがアベノミクス政策である。
日銀総裁・黒田東彦のマイナス金利政策である。
メガバンクから既に経営が厳しく、ハイリスクハイリターンな投機商品に手を出さざるを得ない苦境にある。
社債とは企業が投資家から資金を借りる時に発行する有価証券である。
社債には返済期日・利息などが書かれている。
社債は借金の借用書である。
ウォール街は、この有価証券も商品に変える。
格付けの低い倒産しそうな危ない企業の社債がBB・ダブルB以下のハイイールド債である。
倒産による元本割れが発生するリスクが高い分利回りは高く設定する。
信用格付けが高く元本割れが発生するリスクが低い社債が「投資適格債」「IG」である。
デフォルトリスクの低い適格債の代表が国債である。
IMF(世界通貨基金)が発表した世界金融安定報告によると低格付け社債の発行が、アメリカとEUで440兆円を突破した。
リーマンショック時の4倍の規模である。
IMFは金融市場で重要な役割を果たす国家の7割で危険性が増大していると考察する。
今年発行された社債の70%以上が格付けBB以下のハイイールド債である。
中国で指摘されたゾンビ企業がアメリカでも増えている。
世界的な低金利を受けてBBB・トリプルBの社債発行も増加している。
BBB格は投資適格債の最低ラインである。
IMFは将来の景気悪化でBBBがランクを下げることを心配している。
BBBからBBBネガティブ・BBBマイナス・BBにワンノッチ下がるとハイイールド債に転落する。
ウォール街の投資銀行・ヘッジファンドは危ない社債を日本に押し付ける。
リターンを求めたウォール街がリスクだけを日本に押し付ける。
ヘッジファンド・銀行・証券会社・保険会社・投資ファンド・年金機構等は、投資適格のBBBまでなら買って良いという会社のルール・格付け条項がある。
不景気になってBBに堕ちたらルール上、すぐに売らないとルール違反で駄目になる。
債権は値が付かない紙くずに変わる。
債権の損失を補填しようと株・金・為替・金融資産が売られる。
売りが売りを呼ぶ、大暴落のからくりである。
債権には逆張りが効かない。
格付けの下がった企業が回復するには時間がかかり過ぎる。
BBBの社債が、人気がある現在は破綻の淵に立っている状態である。
今年に入って債券の価格は低く、リターンもほぼ無い、リーマンショック前夜の状況である。
売り抜けようとするウォール街は、危ない企業のBBB社債を、いよいよ日本に押し付ける。
IMFリポート、BBB債の発行残高は2008年以降、増加し続ける。
ハイイールド債の発行残高は2008年の4倍。
日本が、どう危ないのか。
黒田東彦のマイナス金利政策で、3大メガバンク・農林中央金庫・ゆうちょ銀行・JAバンク・GPIFの金庫の中には、ハイイールド債・BBB社債が積まれている。
ウォール街では「ムーディーズ」「S&P」格付け会社は最も格下であり、投資銀行・ヘッジファンドの言いなりである。
投資銀行・ヘッジファンドから「危険な会社のBBB債を日本に押し付け終わるまで格付けを下げるな」と指示が出されているだろう。
サブプライムモーゲージ債(OCD)は破綻するまでAAAの商品だった。
リーマンブラザーズも破綻する日までAAAの投資銀行だった。
ウォール街の格付け会社が、いかに信頼できないかの証拠である。
今、最もデフォルトリスクの高いBBB債は日本企業の金庫の中にある。
後、遅くとも1年で紙くずに変わる。
ある日の朝、唐突に紙くずに変わる。
リーマンショックの時も、1日でフラッシュクラッシュが発生し、時間を追うごとに株価が下落した。
日本のBBB債もフラッシュクラッシュに見舞われる。
スーパーコンピューターにも繋がっていない金庫の中でフラッシュクラッシュする。
皮肉な話である。
アベノミクス政策へのとどめとなる。
日本発祥のボンドマゲドンの恐怖は、十分にある。
電通に仕切られているテレビはアホだから、今そこにある危機を報じない。
ボンドマゲドンで倒産すれば良い。

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