ファイザーCEOアルバートブーラ自社株売りで5億9000万円儲ける

ダイヤモンドオンライン。
ウォール街で桁外れの利益を出し続ける謎のヘッジファンド「ルネサンス・テクノロジーズ」。創始者のジム・シモンズは、40歳で数学者からトレーダーに転身した。元数学教授のシモンズは、現代金融史上おそらくもっとも成功したトレーダーである。

ルネサンスの屋台骨であるヘッジファンド、メダリオンは、1988年以降、年間平均66パーセントの収益率を上げ、運用収益は1000億ドルを超えている。ウォーレン・バフェット、ジョージ・ソロス、ピーター・リンチ、スティーブ・コーエン、レイ・ダリオですら手が届かない成績だ。

なぜ、素人集団のルネサンスが市場で勝ち続けてきたのか。人間の感情を一切排除したアルゴリズム投資の裏で繰り広げられる、科学者たちの喜怒哀楽のドラマを描いた『最も賢い億万長者者 上巻・下巻』(グレゴリー・ザッカーマン 著/水谷淳 訳)の日本版が刊行された。これを記念して、内容の一部を公開しよう。

● 複雑化する トレーディングシステム  ルネサンスの社員は約250人、博士は60人を超えていて、その中には、人工知能の専門家や量子物理学者、コンピュータ言語学者や統計学者や数論学者など、さまざまな分野の科学者や数学者も含まれていた。

見過ごされていた市場のパターンを特定する上では、込み入った大量のデータを精査して微かな現象の証拠を見つけるのに手慣れた天文学者が、とくに秀でていた。たとえばエリザベス・バートンは、ハーバード大学で博士号を取得して、ハワイなど何ヵ所かの望遠鏡を使って銀河の進化を研究したのちに、ルネサンスに入社した。

徐々に人材の多様性を増したルネサンスは、エルウィン・バーレカンプ〔メダリオン・ファンドの運用に携わったゲーム理論学者〕の教え子で量子コンピューティングの専門家であるジュリア・ケンプも雇った。

メダリオンはいまだに債券やコモディティや通貨の取引をおこなって、トレンドのシグナルや回帰予測シグナルに基づいて収益を上げており、その中でもとくに効果を発揮したのが、「デジャブ」というその名のとおりのシグナルだった。

しかし以前にも増して推進力となっていたのは、たとえばコカ・コーラ株を買ってペプシ株を売るといった単純な「ペアトレード」でなく、複雑なシグナルを組み合わせた込み入った株式取引だった。

1件の取引による収益はけっして大きくなかったし、予測が当たるのは2回に1回をわずかに上回るにすぎなかったが、それでも十分すぎるほどだった。

マーサー〔ルネサンスで重要なブレイクスルーを成し遂げた人物〕はある友人に次のように語った。

「100回中50.75回しか当たらないが……、50.75回は100パーセント当たる。そうすれば億万長者になれる」。

会社のトレーディングの強みを詳しく明かそうとはしなかったようだ。それよりも強調したのは、同時におこなう何千件もの取引の中でわずかに優位に立ち、それを必要十分な規模で一貫しておこなうことで、莫大な収益を上げるという点だった。

そのように確実に得られる収益を上げていくという発想が鍵だった。

株式などの投資商品は、どんなに手慣れた投資家でも理解できないような多くの要因や力から影響を受ける。ふつうの投資家なら、たとえばグーグルの親会社であるアルファベットの株式の騰落を予測する際には、企業収益や金利のトレンドやアメリカ経済の健全性などを予想しようとする。あるいは、ネット検索やオンライン広告の将来性、テクノロジー産業全体の見通し、世界的企業の今後、さらには、収益や簿価などに関する指標や比率などを予想しようとする。

だがルネサンスの社員たちは、投資商品に影響を与える要因はもっとたくさんあって、その中には容易には見つからないものや、ときには道理に合わないものもあるという結論に至った。そして、何百種類もの金融指標、ソーシャルメディアへの投稿、ネット上を流れるデータ量の指標など、定量化して検証できるほぼあらゆるものを分析評価することで、ほとんどの人はぎりぎり理解できないようなものも含め、数々の新たな要因を見つけ出した。

「そのような非効率性はすごく複雑で、市場の中にいわば暗号として隠されている。ルネサンス・テクノロジーズはそれを解読している。長い時間軸、さまざまなリスク要因、いくつものセクターや産業にわたって見つけている」とある社員は言う。

● 「何に賭けるか」と同じくらい重要な 「どのように賭けるか」  さらに重要な点がある。ルネサンスは、それらのあらゆる力のあいだに確実な数学的関係性が存在すると結論づけたのだ。研究者たちはデータサイエンスを応用することで、さまざまな要因がどんなときに関わってくるか、互いにどのように関連しているか、どのような頻度で株式に影響をおよぼすかを、より深く把握できた。

また、ほかの投資家が気づいていないか、または完全には理解していないような、さまざまな株式のあいだの微妙な数学的関係性(社内では「多次元アノマリー」と呼んでいる)を探り出しては検証した。

ルネサンスの元幹部は次のように言う。

「企業どうしは複雑な形で互いに結びついているのだから、そのような関係性は必ず存在する。その相互関連性はモデル化して精確に予測するのが難しいし、刻々と変化する。ルネサンス・テクノロジーズが開発したマシンは、この相互関連性をモデル化して、その振る舞いを時々刻々と追跡し、価格がそれらのモデルから外れたと思われたときに賭ける」。

外部の人にはあまり理解されなかったが、本当の成功の鍵は、これらの要因や力をどのようにして残らず自動トレーディングシステムに組み込むかという、工学的な面にあった。ルネサンスは何千行ものソースコードに基づいて、ポジティブなシグナル(多くの場合は散発的な複数のシグナル)を示した株式を一定の数量買い、ネガティブなシグナルを示した株式を空売りした。

ある上級社員は次のように語る。

「この株が上がるだろうとか下がるだろうとか説明できるような、個別の賭けはしない。どの賭けも、ほかのすべての賭け、わが社のリスクプロファイル、そして、近い将来または遠い将来に予想される行動に基づいて決まる。それは巨大で複雑な最適化計算であって、その前提となっているのは、未来を十分に精確に予測すれば、その予測に基づいて儲けることができるし、リスクやコスト、影響や市場構造を十分に理解すれば、徹底的にてこ入れできるという考え方だ」。

ルネサンスが何に賭けていたかと同じくらい重要なのが、どのように賭けていたかである。何か儲けにつながるシグナル、たとえばドルが午前9時から午前10時までに0.1パーセント値上がりするというシグナルを見つけても、時計の針がちょうど9時を指したときにドルを買ってしまったら、ほかの投資家に、その時刻になったら必ず値が動くということを悟られかねない。そこで、その1時間のあいだに、予測できないような形で買いを分散することで、トレーディングシグナルが失われないようにする。

メダリオンは、競争相手に悟られないよう値動きを「キャパシティーする」(内輪での呼び方)ことで、きわめて強いシグナルに基づくトレーディングをおこなう方法を編み出した。それはちょうど、ディスカウントストアのターゲットで売れ筋商品が大幅に値下げされると聞きつけて、開店直後にその値下げ商品を残らず買い占め、セールになったことを誰にも悟られないようにするようなものである。

「一つのシグナルに基づいて1年間トレーディングをしていても、わが社の取引のしかたを知らない人にとっては、そのシグナルはまったく違うように見える」とある内部関係者は言う。

シモンズはこの方法論のあらましを、2014年に韓国でおこなった講演の際に次のように説明した。

「機械学習の大規模活用ととらえることもできる。過去を調べた上で、いま何が起こっていて、それが将来に非ランダムな形でどのような影響を与えるかを理解するのだ」。

(ブルームバーグ): 米製薬大手ファイザーのアルバート・ブーラ最高経営責任者(CEO)は、保有する自社株の売却で約560万ドル(約5億9000万円)を手にした。新型コロナウイルスのワクチン期待で一部の製薬会社の株価が上昇しており、これら企業の幹部が保有株を売って利益を得る例が相次いでいる。

米証券取引委員会(SEC)に提出された文書によると、ブーラ氏は9日にファイザー株13万株余りを売却した。同社のサリー・サスマン上級副社長も約180万ドル相当の保有株を手放した。

同日のファイザーの株価は、ドイツのビオンテックと開発する新型コロナワクチン候補の暫定結果を発表した後に急騰した。ファイザーの広報担当者は両幹部の株式売却について、個人的な資産計画の一部だと説明。両氏ともインサイダー取引に抵触するのを防ぐため株価が一定の水準に達した際の売却を事前に指示しており、ブーラ氏は今年8月に、サスマン氏は昨年11月に売却水準を設定していた。

モデルナのステファン・バンセルCEOも今年、50万株余りを売却済み。同社株は年初から4倍余り上昇した。

今ヨーロッパで流行している新型コロナウィルスは、変異した新型である。現在、変異株の数は3322株である。19A・19B・20A・20B・20Cへと変異してきている。20Aと20Bが、夏、中央ヨーロッパから感染拡大している。1日に70種変異する。

夏にスペイン東部地域のアラゴン・カタルーニャ農業労働者の間で最初に特定された。ヨーロッパのゴーツートラベル政策でヨーロッパ中に広まった。イギリスでは20AEU1型がゴーツーイートで広まった。欧州変異G型にはD614G変異がある。変異すれば感染力が強まる性質がある。武漢1型の10倍の感染力を有する。ただし、重症度が増す株型とは言い切れない。そしてアメリカで流行しているのは20Cであり、日本は20Bである。韓国は20C・中国は20Bである。

菅義偉は外国人の受け入れを再開している。20A・20AEU1型・20C。欧米で猛威を振るう型クレードが持ち込まれたら、どう責任取るのか。

経済活動の再開を叫び、日本よりもゴーツー事業を先んじたヨーロッパが、再度の都市封鎖ロックダウンに陥っているのは一つの教訓である。

ファイザー・ビオンティック、モデルナ開発中のワクチンはメッセンジャーRNAワクチンである。ジョンソン&ジョンソン、アストラゼネカ・オックスフォード大学ワクチンはアデノウィルスベクターワクチンである。中国シノバックワクチンは弱毒化ワクチン・不活化ワクチンである。ジョンソン&ジョンソン・アストラゼネカ・シノバックは重大な副反応が発生し、臨床実験が中断されている。

メッセンジャーRNAワクチンは世界で初めて開発されたワクチンである。しかも1年以内に「完成した」と言われる。メッセンジャーRNAワクチンは、以前から癌・インフルエンザ・ジカウィルス・エボラ出血熱ウィルス対策に研究が重ねられていた。メッセンジャーRNAワクチンは、医学理論として造り易い。短期間で完成すると言われる。

1年経過せずに完成する。その素早さに抵抗がある。「大丈夫か」という心理負荷である。

ファイザーワクチンの臨床実験は4万3538人を対象にし、2万2000人にワクチンを接種し、もう半分は偽薬プラセボ・生理食塩水を接種している。中間解析で94人が新型コロナに感染した。偽薬を接種したグループの94人である。これが有効性90%のエビデンスである。第三層の臨床実験としては4万3538人は人数が少な過ぎる。副反応・副作用の有無も、数年間かけて安全性を実証する必要がある。

何よりもファイザーワクチンは運輸・保管時にマイナス80度に冷蔵する必要がある。接種する寸前までマイナス80度に保管しておく必要がある。「マイナス80度のワクチンを接種する」ことに抵抗がある。子供に接種して大丈夫なのか。安全性に首を傾げながら接種するワクチンが効くのか。

ファイザーCEOが保有する自社株を6割売る。リスクヘッジである。「90%有効なワクチンが完成しました」。今から株価は上昇する。ワクチンの安全性への疑問。マイナス80度の運輸・保管の困難さ。ファイザーの宣伝通りに株価は上昇しないかもしれない。自社株を6割キャッシュに変えておけば。株が上昇しなくても6割は売り抜け成功である。株が上昇すれば4割が稼いでくれる。

ルネサンスのスパコンが「人間の判断・感情・直感・合理性を一切排除するアルゴリズムプログラム」を完成し、驚異のリターンを得てきたように。大金持ちがルネサンスのスパコンの真似をする局面に変わった。

世界の金融バブル大崩壊を目前にしてウォール街のカジノは、誰が儲かるかしか、考えていない。ウォール街のハゲタカども、一般国民よりも悲惨に破産して貰いたい。

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