ヒストリカルDIが「アベノミクスの虚構」を暴く

内閣府。
1.統計の目的。
景気動向指数は、生産、雇用など様々な経済活動での重要かつ景気に敏感に反応する指標の動きを統合することによって、 景気の現状把握及び将来予測に資するために作成された指標である。
景気動向指数には、コンポジット・インデックス(CI)とディフュージョン・インデックス(DI)がある。
CIは構成する指標の動きを合成することで景気変動の大きさやテンポ(量感)を、DIは構成する指標のうち、 改善している指標の割合を算出することで景気の各経済部門への波及の度合い(波及度)を測定することを主な目的とする。
従来、景気動向指数はDIを中心とした公表形態であったが、近年、景気変動の大きさや量感を把握することがより重要になっていることから、 2008年4月分以降、CI中心とした公表形態に移行した。
しかし、DIも景気の波及度を把握するための重要な指標であることから、参考指標として引き続き、作成・公表している。
なお、景気転換点の判定にはヒストリカルDIを用いている。
CIとDIには、それぞれ、景気に対し先行して動く先行指数、ほぼ一致して動く一致指数、遅れて動く遅行指数の3つの指数がある。
景気の現状把握に一致指数を利用し、先行指数は、一般的に、一致指数に数か月先行することから、景気の動きを予測する目的で利用する。
遅行指数は、一般的に、一致指数に数か月から半年程度遅行することから、事後的な確認に用いる。
CIとDIは共通の指標を採用しており、採用系列数は、先行指数11、一致指数9、遅行指数9の29系列である(2017年1月分以降、「規模別製造工業生産指数」(中小企業庁)公表休止のため、一致指数において「中小企業出荷指数(製造業)」を採用系列から除外し、10指標から9指標に変更)。
採用系列は概ね景気が一循環(谷→山→谷)するごとに見直しを行っており、現行系列は、第15循環の景気基準日付確定時(2015年7月)に選定された。
なお、景気動向指数は、各経済部門から選ばれた指標の動きを統合して、 単一の指標によって景気を把握しようとするものであり、すべての経済指標を総合的に勘案して景気を捉えようとするものではないことに留意する必要がある。
2.利用の仕方。
a.CI。
CIは、主として景気変動の大きさやテンポ(量感)を測定することを目的としている。
一般的に、CI一致指数が上昇している時は景気の拡張局面、低下している時は後退局面であり、CI一致指数の動きと景気の転換点は概ね一致する。
CI一致指数の変化の大きさから、景気の拡張又は後退のテンポを読み取る。
ただし、例えば景気の拡張局面においても、CI一致指数が単月で低下するなど、不規則な動きも含まれていることから、 移動平均値をとることにより、ある程度の期間の月々の動きをならしてみることが望ましい。
毎月の統計表には、足下の基調の変化をつかみやすい3か月後方移動平均と、 足下の基調の変化が定着しつつあることを確認する7か月後方移動平均をあわせて掲載している。
景気の基調をみる上では、経済活動の拡張(又は後退)がある程度の期間、持続しているか、 またある程度の大きさで変化しているかが重要である。
したがって、CI一致指数が続けて上昇(又は下降)していても、 その期間が極めて短い場合は、拡張(又は後退)と見なすことは適当でない。
また、CI一致指数がこれまでの基調と逆方向に十分に振れてから、その基調が変化したと見なすことが望ましい。
b.DI。
DIは、景気拡張の動きの各経済部門への波及度合いを測定することを主な目的とする。
DIは採用系列のうち改善している指標の割合のことで、景気の各経済部門への波及の度合いを表す。
月々の振れがあるものの、DI一致指数は、景気拡張局面では50%を上回り、後退局面では下回る傾向がある。
DIは、景気の拡張が経済活動のより多くの分野に浸透していったことを示す指標であり、景気拡張が加速していることを示すものではないことに注意が必要である。
また、毎月公表されるDIは、景気転換点を判定するヒストリカルDIとは異なる指標である。
c.CIとDIとの違い。
DIは景気の各経済部門への波及の度合いを表す指標であり、各採用系列が大幅に拡張しようと、小幅に拡張しようと、拡張系列数の割合が同じならば同じDIが計測される。
CIは景気の強弱を定量的に計測する指標であり、DIが同じ数値で計測されたとしても、 各採用系列が大幅に拡張していればCIも大幅に上昇し、各採用系列が小幅に拡張しているならばCIも小幅に上昇する。
このように、CIは、DIでは計測できない景気の山の高さや谷の深さ、拡張や後退の勢いといった景気の「量感」を計測することができる。
一方、DIが異なる数値で計測されたとしても、多くの系列で小幅に拡張した時と、一部の系列が大幅に上昇した時とで、同じCIの上昇幅が得られる場合がある。
このように、CIの変化幅そのものからは各経済部門への波及度合いの相違を把握することが難しいため、CIの変化幅に対する各採用系列の寄与度やDIをあわせて利用するのが望ましい。
ダイヤモンドオンライン。
政府が毎月閣僚会議に報告している月例経済報告では「景気は緩やかに回復」という判断が維持されており、2012年11月を底にして戦後最長の景気拡大が続いていることになっている。
これに対して、景気動向指数から読み取れる機械的な基調判断は、後退を意味する「悪化」が続いており、政府の景気判断と食い違ってきた。
機械的な基調判断はあくまで参考であり、月例経済報告の判断が正式の景気判断であることは言うまでもないが、ここにきて景気の山・谷の判断材料となるヒストリカルDIが18年11月から50%を下回っている(景気動向指数CI・一致系列の過半が下降となる)ことがわかってきた。
つまり、その直前月となる18年10月が景気の「山」だった可能性がある。
まだ、個々の系列が改定されるので、ヒストリカルDIが50%を下回るタイミングは前後する可能性があるが、50%を下回った状態が続いている以上、ここが景気の「山」ではないか。
仮に18年中に山がついたと認定されると、「戦後最長の景気拡大」は幻だったことになる。
コンマ以下の差の微妙な判定で 認定されなかった14年3月の山。
正式の判断は、景気動向指数研究会が招集されて、その検討作業を待つしかないが、山がついたとしたら、戦後最長という大記録を前になんとも残念な判定ということになる。
だが、これまでも消費税率が8%に引き上げられた14年4月以降もヒストリカルDIが50を下回り、直前月の3月に山をつけて景気は後退に転じたのではないかとの議論があった。
17年6月になってようやく景気動向指数研究会が開かれたが、議論の結果は景気の山とは認定せずとなった。
もっとも、議事要旨を読むとかなり微妙な判定だったことがわかる。
景気の山の判定は、(1)波及度、(2)量的な変化、(3)景気後退の期間という三つの基準で判定される。
まず、(3)景気後退の期間が短すぎると山と認定されないが、この時はヒストリカルDIが50を下回っていた期間が23カ月(14年4月~16年2月)と十分長く、この基準は文句なくクリアした。
次に、(2)量的な変化については、景気動向指数CI・一致系列の落ち幅が過去の後退局面と比べて小さすぎると山と認定されない。
この時の23カ月間の落ち幅は6%程度と大きなものではなかったが、1985年6月~11月の落ち幅を上回り、2012年3月~11月とほぼ同じだった。こちらの基準もクリアしていたと判断できる。
しかし14年では、(1)波及度が基準を満たしていないと判断された。
波及度は経済活動の収縮が経済の大半の部門に広がっている度合いである。
波及度の基準を満たす目安は、ヒストリカルDIがゼロ%近傍まで下がること(つまり景気動向指数CI・一致系列がほとんど全て下降すること)だ。
この時はヒストリカルDIが22.2%(つまり9系列のうち7系列が下降)までしか落ちなかった。
もっとも、ゼロ%近傍という目安はあいまいだ。
たしかに、過去のほとんどの景気後退ではヒストリカルDIがゼロ%まで低下しているが、12年3月~11月の景気後退ではヒストリカルDIの低下は20.0%(10系列のうち8系列が下降)にとどまった。
採用系列数の違いが影響した微妙な差が、山か否かの判断を分けるというのはしっくりこない。
今回は「山」と認定される可能性 景気動向指数研究会が開かれるのはいつ。
この微妙な判定が影響したのか、山と認定されなかったのは、「アベノミクスが続いているのに景気後退の判定などできないからではないか」とか、「8%への消費増税によって景気が後退したことになると10%への増税ができなくなるからだ」といった声も出た。
今回の第16循環で18年10月は山になるのか。筆者は14年3月の時よりは可能性が高いとみている。
まず、景気後退の期間は、ヒストリカルDIの50%割れが18年11月から足元(19年10月)まで12カ月続いており、5カ月以上経過という目安を超えていて、この基準は問題なく満たしている。
量的な変化も、この12カ月の景気動向指数の低下は8.8%と14年の時よりも大幅で、これも基準をクリアしている。
そして、14年の際は、微妙な判定となった波及度だが、今回は9系列全てが下降に転じた。ヒストリカルDIはゼロ%まで低下しており、文句なく基準をクリアしている。
まだ経済指標が過去にさかのぼって改定されるので、山のタイミングも含めて確かなことは言えないが、おそらく18年の秋に景気は「山」をつけて後退局面に入ったということになるだろう。
問題は、いつ景気動向指数研究会が開かれるかだ。
ヒストリカルDIの50%割れが続くのであれば、研究会が開かれることになるが、開催のタイミングまでは決まっていない。
経済指標が改定されることを考えると、1年半ぐらいは経過していないといけないので、20年中ごろには開催される可能性が出てくる。
例えば、第15循環の12年3月の景気の山については、13年8月の研究会で認定された(この研究会では12年4月を山と暫定的に認定。その後15年7月の研究会において12年3月で確定)。
一方、前述のとおり、14年3月を山と認定するかどうかの検討が行われたのは、17年6月と3年以上が経過していた。
山・谷の認定で政治的忖度が働くとは考えたくないが、研究会を開くタイミングについては忖度が働くかもしれない。
今回は山をつけるタイミングによっては、戦後最長の景気拡大が実は幻だったということになるだけではない。
18年10月に安倍首相は消費税の使途変更とともに19年10月からの消費税率10%引き上げの方針を表明したが、景気が後退に向かおうとするちょうどその時期に増税を打ち出したことにもなる。
安部政権が続いている間、特にいずれ行われると考えられている解散総選挙より前のタイミングで研究会を開催するのは、官僚としては避けたいところだろう。
そうなると、開催は21年にずれ込むかもしれない。
山・谷の判断基準の見直しが必要 「後退」していなければ「回復」は強引。
いずれにしても、18年秋のどこかで景気の「山」が認定されたとして、12年11月を谷とした景気拡大が本当にその時期まで続いていたのかということも改めて議論になるだろう。
前述のとおり、14年3月は山と認定されなかったが、認定されてもおかしくない状況だったと思う。
間違いだったとは言えないが、結果として、景気回復と言いながらヒストリカルDIが50%を下回る状況が2年近くも続いた。
この間は、景気が「後退」していないとは言っても、「回復」していない状況だったわけだ。
現行の景気判断基準は、景気を「回復」か「後退」かで二分して考えるが、今のように、好況でも成長率はかつてほど高くはなく振り幅も少ない定常状態の経済にそぐわないのではないか。
「回復」しているのか「後退」しているのか、判断しにくいような状態をどう認識したらよいのか。
「横ばい」あるいは「緩やかな回復(後退)」といった景気判断があってもいいかもしれない。
回復・後退という二分法を続けるなら、ヒストリカルDIがゼロ近傍まで低下という波及度の基準は少し緩めるといった工夫も必要だろう。
繰り返しになるが、12年3月の山の判定では20.0%を許容範囲として少し基準を緩めたが、14年3月の山の判定では22.2%は許容しないと厳しい判断が下された。
この差を誰もが納得できるように説明するのは難しいのではないか。
さらに言えば、2年も3年もたってから出てくる、政府の山・谷の判定を待っていては、あまりに遅すぎる。
足元の景気判断や成長率見通しに加えて、山・谷の判断についても、お上の判断に従うのではなく、民間の調査・研究機関がもっと積極的に自分の見方を発信すべきだ。
官と民、あるいは民の間でも景気の山・谷の見方が違う場合があっても、その方が景気を巡る議論も活性化する。
アベノミクスの6本の矢。
ファーストステージの金融緩和・財政出動・成長戦略。
セカンドステージのGDP成長・子育て支援・安心の社会保障。
7年間のアベノミクスで矢が折れ、力尽きて終わろうとしている。
とどめを刺すのが10%の消費増税である。
19年世界の経済成長率3,0%はリーマンショック以来の低成長である。
日本は0,9%である。
何処に消費増税の余地が有ったのか。
アメリカ2,4%。EU1,2%。10%で移行してきた中国も6、3%である。
8%だったインドも6%に減速している。
原因は世界貿易の鈍化である。
世界の経済が振るわない。
世界各国が景気対策に取り組む中で日本だけ消費増税で「逆進性のマイナス圏」に突入する。
「景気の回復無くして、財政再建なし。」アベノミクスの旗印だった。
ヒストリカルDIは内閣府の発表する経済指標である。
総理大臣が知らなかったでは済まされない。
8%増税の景気の冷え込み。
戦後最長の経済成長の幻。
10%の消費増税の逆進性に安倍政権は気づいていた。
しかし、伝家の宝刀の「隠蔽体質」で無謀な消費増税に踏み切った。
デフレが何故、駄目なのか。
企業の求人倍率が1%を切り新入社員に働き口が無いからである。
アベノミクスで景気を回復し、賃金を上げ、インフレ率2%で景気を循環させ、労働環境も整える。
7年のアベノミクスの果てに。
金融緩和で金融市場に流し込んだカネは全てアメリカに流れていった。
日本はまたデフレに戻ろうとしている。
企業の求人倍率は1,8%から1,6%に戻っている。
「雇用の創造」がアベノミクスの最後の果実・砦だった。
無理を承知の消費増税で「雇用の創造」も、ぶち壊す。
カジノ法案を強行採決した秋元司がIR事業を巡る収賄・汚職で逮捕される。
「桜を見る会」「秋元司逮捕」「小泉進次郎幽霊会社」の三点セットで解散総選挙だろう。
安倍晋三は「アベノミクスのエンジンを更に蒸かす」と言えるだろうか。

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