バブルが弾けるとき・最も賢い億万長者

トーマスバッハが帰国する。途端に東京都が1日3000件の検査数を8600件に跳ね上げる。「バッハの来日前には感染者数を抑えよう」という魂胆が見え見えである。小池百合子「大年増の厚化粧」、化粧では無く、面の皮が厚い。見え透いた方法で感染者数をコントロールする。

検査と隔離と治療との三つがセットである。舐めた真似をしていると、「ファクターX」メルトダウンで、日本なのに感染爆発するかもしれない。その時、慌てふためくなよ。

グレゴリーザッカーマン著「最も賢い億万長者」再読する。朝日新聞ICIJ取材班「ルポタックスヘイブン」と併せ読む。

4年前トランプは「自分は不動産王なので選挙資金は自力で調達する」と宣言し、資金不足ショートする。ルネサンスのロバートマーサーが27億円献金し、同時にトランプの操り師となるスティーブバノンをトランプに結び付ける。今年の大統領選挙前に逮捕された、オルタナティブ右翼デジタル記事の編集長のバノンである。

見逃せないのはルネサンスのジェイムズシモンズが、ヒラリークリントンに29憶円献金している点である。ルネサンス内部にはジェイムズシモンズとロバートマーサーの確執があった筈である。その経緯・人間ドラマを読みたかった。「最も賢い億万長者」は台本・書割めいており、ドラマが描かれていない。

ルネサンスのアルゴリズムスパコンに、過去の経験則アノマリー・国家企業の決算ボラティリティ・相場の上昇下降の勢いモメンタムが入力されている。投資の基礎の基礎としてアルゴリズムに入力・書き込まれている事柄が、今回の相場では、一切役に立たない。

中央銀行FRBが刷ったカネを、無制限に金融市場に流し込む相場など、嘗て無かった。だからルネサンスのアルゴリズムスパコンも大負けする。

「バブルが弾ける時は皆がバブルに浮かれている時」「投資素人のミセスワタナベが株に手を出す時バブルが弾ける」「皆が異常な株高を心配している間はバブルは弾けない」。残念ながら、これら俗説もアノマリーである。今回の相場には通用しない。

今回の金融市場の大暴落は債券市場で起きる。トリプルB社債・CLO。巨大爆弾が二つも、導火線に着火している。

トリプルB社債は投資適格債の中で最も利回りが高い為、人気を博した社債である。景気の良い内は、それで済んだ。今、実態経済が止められ、トリプルB社債はことごとくフォーリンエンジェルと堕している。FRBが無制限の金融緩和で買い切ろうにも買い切れない。

 

リーマンショックを引き起こしたのはサブプライムモーゲージ債CDOとクレジットデフォルトスワップCDSである。銀行がヒスパニックの移民にサブプライムローンを組ませ住宅を購入させる。銀行はローンが焦げ付くのに備えてローン担保証券を創る。CDOである。CDOの破綻に備える保険商品がAIGから売り出されたCDSである。CDOとCDSが同時に爆売れしたことが、金融市場を壊した。

サブプライムローンとサブプライムモーゲージ債。零細中小企業へのレバレッジドローンと担保証券コラタライズドローンオブリゲーションCLO。構造が全く同じである。今回は実体経済でレバレッジドローンが焦げ付き、CLOが爆発する。

CLOを世界一保有しているのが農林中金・ゆうちょ銀行・三大メガバンク、日本の金融市場である。

竹中平蔵・二階俊博・菅義偉。菅内閣は麻生太郎を外し、このトリオで政権運営している。ゴーツー事業など、即座に止めて。竹中平蔵・菅義偉は自己責任でGPIFの資産運用を安全な日本国債に戻すべきである。

債券市場が崩落すれば、より規模の小さい株式市場など釣られて暴落する。金・銀・暗号資産・FXなどコモデティ市場は粉々となる。

時間も又、残酷な堕天使である。1年前は投資家に大人気のトリプルB社債・CLOが金融市場を破壊するルシファーと変化する。

 

竹中平蔵・菅義偉。二人に時間の猶予は無い。

(ブルームバーグ): ヘッジファンド業界のクオンツの巨人2社が、今年の荒っぽい市場に投資モデルが翻弄され、つまずいた。

ルネサンス・テクノロジーズとトゥー・シグマ・アドバイザーズは、運用する複数のファンドの2020年成績がマイナスになっている。新型コロナウイルスのパンデミック(世界的大流行)がもたらした市場ボラティリティーが、最も洗練されたトレーダーらにとってすら未曽有の事態だったことがうかがわれる。

株式相場は3月に急速に弱気相場入りし、その後90年ぶりの勢いで反発。CBOEボラティリティー指数の2月末からの平均は33と、過去30年の平均を14ポイント上回っている。

ウェルズ・ファーゴ・プライベート・ウェルス・マネジメントのアダム・タバック最高投資責任者(CIO)は「クオンツファンドは現在の環境を全く反映していない期間のデータに頼っている」と指摘。「ボラティリティーが高まると、クオンツは行ったり来たりさせられるので追いつくのが極めて難しくなる」とも述べた。

ルネサンスのロングバイアスのファンドは10月末までで約20%のマイナスとなったと、事情に詳しい関係者が述べた。マーケットニュートラルのファンドと世界株式ファンドはそれぞれ約27%と約25%のマイナスだったという。

損失は3月の急落時のヘッジが足りず、4-6月の反発期にはヘッジし過ぎたことが原因だとルネサンスは投資家に説明。モデルが最初の問題を埋め合わせるため「過剰反応」したと分析した。

トゥー・シグマはリスクプレミア戦略が10月末まででマイナス11.5%、アブソルートリターン・ファンドがマイナス2.7%、アブソルートリターン・マクロファンドは同23%だった。ブルームバーグが文書を確認した。

両社の広報担当者はコメントを控えた。S&P500種株価指数は10月末までで1.2%上昇。トータルリターンベースでは2.8%上昇している。

(ブルームバーグ): 米国債市場のトレーダーらは、新型コロナウイルスのワクチンへの期待と感染拡大による懸念の間で揺れている。

米国債利回りは先週、3月以来の高水準に達したが、ワクチンの普及で景気が回復しインフレも上昇するとの期待は高まらなかった。

バークレイズは債券売りはほぼ終わったとみる。INGグループは安全資産の需要再燃で利回り低下を予想している。

現在進行中の感染急増が経済に及ぼす打撃への懸念が、米連邦準備制度の超緩和的政策とあいまって、指標利回りの上昇を抑える公算が大きい。ワクチンが成功だとしても、幅広い世界経済の再開には時間がかかる。インフレ加速は期待薄だ。

アンシュル・プラダン氏らバークレイズのストラテジストは、「大規模な債券売りの可能性は依然として低い。『新型コロナ後』の回復にはまだかなり時間がかかるだろう」と指摘した。

INGは、先週1%に近づいた10年物米国債利回りが再び0.75%まで低下すると予想している。17日は0.86%だった。

また、スバドラ・ラジャパ氏らソシエテ・ジェネラルのストラテジストはリポートで、「世界的なディスインフレ圧力の下で中央銀行は引き続きハト派のままだろう」との見方を示した。

[東京 13日 ロイター] – ゆうちょ銀行は13日、9月末の法人向けローン証券化商品(CLO)への投資額が増加したと発表した。CLOは評価損も増加した。国債保有残高は減少し、運用資産に占める割合も低下した。

9月末のCLOの取得原価は1兆9645億円で、評価損は792億円だった。6月末の取得原価は1兆8417億円で、評価損は713億円だった。低金利環境下の運用多様化の一環との位置付けで、会見した新村真常務執行役は「リーマン・ショック級かそれ以上のストレスをかけたテストをして、償還の可能性を十分に確認した上で慎重に投資している」と述べた。

ゆうちょ銀の国債保有残高は9月末時点で52兆8363億円に減少し、運用資産に占める割合は24.1%に低下した。いずれも過去最低の水準となった。新村常務執行役は「新規投資しているが、償還に追いつけず減少トレンドとなっている」と述べた。6月末は53兆5791億円で24.8%だった。

かんぽ生命保険の国債保有額は37兆0925億円に増加し、運用資産に占める割合は52.7%に上昇した。6月末は36兆9066億円で52.1%だった。

“バブルが弾けるとき・最も賢い億万長者” への338件の返信

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