市中銀行は中央銀行・FRBに置いてある当座預金残高の額に比例して融資を行うことができる。量的金融緩和政策とは、この当座預金の残高を増やすことで、市中のマネーサプライ(マネーストック)を増やそうとする政策である。
ジョセフスティグリッツは「アメリカの様な大国が量的緩和するとグローバルに影響を及ぼす。アメリカの緩和マネーは金融市場・為替市場・コモディティ市場に向かう。アメリカの過剰流動性が世界経済を不安定にさせる。」と警告する。
FRBの量的金融緩和政策QE。
QE1は8年11月から10年6月まで1兆7250億ドル。株価は74%上昇。
QE2は10年11月から11年6月まで6000憶ドル。株価は18%上昇。
QE3は12年9月から、月額400憶ドルずつ。株価は39%上昇。
リーマンショック後のアメリカのダウ平均を右肩上がりに揚げてきたのはQEマネーである。
日本経済新聞。
19年10月。
【ワシントン=河浪武史】米連邦準備理事会(FRB)は11日、短期金融市場の資金不足を解消するため、短期国債を月600億ドル(約6兆5千億円)のペースで買い入れる資産拡大策を発表した。 量的緩和の縮小が短期金利の乱高下を招き、FRBは再びバランスシートを拡大せざるを得なくなった。金融政策の正常化は一段と遠のき、FRBの金融調節の難しさも浮き彫りになっている。
FRBは15日に短期債の購入を始め、少なくとも2020年4~6月期までは続ける。「純粋に技術的な施策で、現在の金融政策を変更するものではない」。11日にFRBが公表した声明文では、あえてそう強調した。
金融危機があった08年以降の量的緩和で、FRBのバランスシートは4.5兆ドルまで膨らんだ。米景気の回復に合わせ、FRBは17年から量的緩和の縮小に転じた。資産は3.9兆ドル規模まで減り、金融政策の正常化に一定の道筋を付けたはずだった。
だが量的緩和の局面が長く続いた結果、市場にマネーがあふれかえり、FRBの金融調節の機能は低下した。9月以降には短期金融市場で金利が乱高下するという異変に見舞われた。
政策金利は2%弱なのに、銀行間金利は一時10%前後にまで急上昇した。きっかけになった要因の一つが、FRBが17年末に決めた量的緩和の縮小だった。
市場から余剰資金が吸い上げられ、民間銀行がFRBに預ける準備預金はこの2年で34%も減った。短期市場に出回るマネーが細り、通常では考えられない短期金利の乱高下を招いた。
FRBは今回、短期債を継続的に購入することで、短期金融市場における資金不足の解消につなげる。短期金利の安定を当面の最優先課題に置き、金融調節の機能を再び回復することを狙う。
今回の短期市場の異変は、量的緩和後の金融政策の難しさを浮き彫りにしたともいえる。市場には、19年7月末に終了した資産縮小でFRBが量の面でも引き締め過ぎたとの指摘がある。金融危機前のFRBの資産量は9000億ドルで、現時点でもバランスシートは大きく膨らんだままだ。将来的な金融政策の正常化への道のりは遠い。
今回からFRBが購入するのは償還期間が1年以下の国債になるため、長期金利の押し下げを通じた景気刺激効果は限られる。量的緩和時は主に長期国債や住宅ローン担保証券(MBS)を買い入れたが、新たな施策は政策金利(1.75~2.00%)を適切に保つ金融調節の一環と位置づけた。
FRBには長期債などの買い入れを景気後退に備えたカードにしたい思惑もある。FRBは7、9月の会合で連続利下げに踏み切った。10月末の会合でも追加利下げするとの見方が強まっており、緩和余地は一段と狭まっている。
FRBが購入した短期債を、長期債に切り替えれば長期金利の押し下げ効果が見込める。米国ではここにきて景気下振れ懸念が強まる。パウエル議長は「これは量的緩和ではない」と主張するが、今回の資産購入策を量的緩和が必要となる景気後退の局面もにらんだ布石とみることは可能だ。
新興国の経済発展に伴い、国際的にドルの需要が高まった。米国では財政赤字が拡大しており、政府部門に民間マネーが吸い上げられていることも予想外の資金不足につながった。量的緩和後のマネーの流れを、いまだに金融当局すら予期できずにいる。
このFRBの政策は実質QE4である。
18年2月と10月、ダウ平均株価は歴史的暴落を記録した。
年初にトランプは中国に経済戦争を仕掛けており、自分の仕掛けた戦争で株価を下げた。
しかし、FRBのステルスQE政策でトランプは助けられている。
19年ダウ平均は右肩上がりであり、トランプは「アメリカは強い経済を取り戻した」と我が物顔だ。
実情はアメリカ企業の自社株買いによる株高、アップルなど1社で7兆円の自社株を購入している。
日本銀行がETFを買い支えるのは6兆円までである。
更にQE4政策がダウ平均上昇を支えている。
トランプ減税など後付けの嘘である。
GAFAはアメリカに所得税など支払っていない。
ドイツ銀行危機・ブレグジット・米中貿易戦争・イラン危機・新型コロナウィルス。
ダウ平均が地政学リスクに強いのは、アメリカ企業の自社株買いとFRBの量的金融緩和政策とのお陰である。
スティグリッツの警告通りウォール街の海外勢は日経株式市場に緩和マネーを流し込み、日経株式市場をカジノのルーレットに替えている。
そしてスティグリッツの警告通り、アメリカの財政赤字は拡大し、金融緩和後のマネーの流れはアメリカの金融当局も把握していない。
国家・企業の借金、財政赤字を拡大しながらダウ平均が上昇した挙句、アメリカは借金の崖・財政赤字の崖、二つの崖で大騒ぎする日が来るだろう。
「双子の赤字でアメリカが破綻する」と騒いでいたのも数年前の話である。
トランプバブルは絶対に弾ける、絶対に崩壊する。
世界中にハイパーインフレの嵐を巻き起こしながら弾け、崩壊する。
ここ50年の10年ごとのバブル崩壊は全てアメリカ発である。
中国の新型コロナウィルスは深刻な事態だが迷惑な話でもある。
アメリカのトランプバブル崩壊も迷惑な話である。
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