トランプ内乱軍「旅立ちのバラード」

民主党のジョー・バイデン氏が当選した2020年11月の米大統領選挙の結果を確定すべく、米連邦議会では最終手続きである選挙人投票集計が1月6日に行われた。その米連邦議会に、トランプ大統領に煽られて議事堂に向かった支持者の一部が乱入し、上下両院合同本会議の討議が中断される騒ぎとなった。

群衆は排除されたが、現場で当局に撃たれたトランプ支持者の4人が死亡するなど、状況は混沌としている。

米議会にトランプ支持者が侵入し、議事を妨害したことに怒り心頭の民主党支持者の論客たちは、「共和党は、6日中にトランプ弾劾決議に賛成せよ」「マイク・ペンス副大統領は、米憲法修正第25条に定められた『副大統領が閣僚の過半数とともに、大統領の執行不能を宣言できる規定』を行使して、トランプ大統領を排除せよ」と迫っている。

弾劾・失効不能・免職を示唆されたトランプは「政権の移行には協力する」と態度を軟化する。

トランプの阿保の常套手段。保身と舌先三寸。「郵便投票・期日前投票が民主党候補に有利に働く」と聞くと、投票日前から「不当・不正な選挙だ。選挙を乗っ取られた。」と喚く。アメリカの死亡者数は35万人を超える。トランプが「新型コロナ楽観論」の首謀者で有ったから、世界最悪の死亡者数を出す。トランプは国民の死を悼まない。死亡した軍人を「負け犬」と評する「壊れたメンタル」を持つ。トランプ自身のコロナ感染はセレブ治療で治し、「コロナで死亡した国民は気合が足りない」くらいに受け止めている。だから、選挙集会に集まった支持者にマスクを着用させず、感染を拡大させる。ホワイトハウスも感染集積地エピセンターに変える。

連邦議会で暴れた暴徒は「アンティファ」である。ブラックライブズマター運動を先導したのも「アンティファ」である。即座に陰謀論に結び付ける。

トランプの阿保は、演技性人格障害の病的なナルシストであり、自己愛性人格障害のエゴイズムを併せ持つ。白人至上主義のレイシストである。アメリカ大統領が務まるような人格の持ち主ではない。連邦議会でのテロリズムの顛末は、過去、トランプの阿保さ加減を、ユニーク・ユーモラスな人柄と面白がったマスメディアの、だらしなさが産み出した惨状である。

阿保のトランプが出鱈目を仕出かすたびに「fakeニュース」と切り返されようが、「真実の追及」「権力の監視」のジャーナリズムの仕事を為すべきだった。トランプの言う事為す事、全てキチガイの所業であると、事実・現実を国民に提供すべきだった。

連邦議会に雪崩れ込んだトランプ熱狂支持者は、現実を生きていない。幻想の中に棲んでいる。「メイクアメリカグレートアゲイン」言葉に酔い痴れている。

日本でも、麻原彰晃が弟子と共に衆議院選挙に出馬し、弟子諸共、落選し。「選挙に不正が有った」と社会を憎悪し、武装蜂起・過激化して、松本・霞が関地下鉄サリン事件を引き起こした。麻原彰晃は出現した時から徹頭徹尾、破壊的カルトの教祖であった。「ユニークな宗教家が現れた」と島田裕巳・中沢新一・吉本隆明、宗教学者・評論家がマスメディアで紹介し、カルト教祖は宗教家に化けていった。

マスメディアが、おだてればカルト教祖も大統領も、「自己愛を肥大化させ、過激活動に突き進む。」お伽噺の様な「ほんとにあった怖い話」なのである。

【ワシントン共同】米疾病対策センター(CDC)は6日、新型コロナウイルス感染症ワクチンを接種後、アレルギー反応の中でも特に重いアナフィラキシー症状を29人が起こしたと電話記者会見で発表した。米国では米製薬大手ファイザーなどが開発したワクチンと米バイオ企業モデルナのワクチンが実用化され、これまでに少なくとも530万人に接種された。

CDCは昨年12月14~23日にファイザー製を接種しアナフィラキシーを起こした21人の報告書を公表。当時接種した約189万人に占める発生割合は100万人当たり11.1人。インフルエンザワクチンの同1.3人と比べると頻度が高い。

[6日 ロイター] –     米疾病対策センター(CDC)は6日、米ファイザーおよびモデルナが開発した新型コロナウイルスワクチンによるアレルギー反応を注意深く監視しているとした上で、深刻なアレルギー反応を示した人に対し、2回目の接種を行わないよう要請した。

記者団との電話会議で、新型コロナワクチンによるアレルギー反応は接種100万回当たり11.1件だったと発表。一方、インフルエンザワクチンのアレルギー反応は接種100万回当たり1.3件という。

CDCは、深刻なアレルギー反応は「非常にまれ」とし、ワクチン接種の必要性を強調。ワクチン接種によるアレルギー反応を注意深く監視しているとし、ウェブサイトに毎週情報を公開するとした。

またワクチン接種場所では、アナフィラキシーなど深刻なアレルギー反応に備えるだけではなく、その対応法や病院での追加処置が必要かどうかの判断を行えるようにすべきとした。

CDC当局者によると、ファイザーと独ビオンテックが共同開発したワクチンを接種した後に深刻なアレルギー反応を示したのは28人。モデルナ製ワクチン接種後に呼吸困難などを引き起こし得るアナフィラキシー反応が確認されたのは1人という。

アレルギー反応の件数の違いは主にファイザー製ワクチンの承認がモデルナ製ワクチンよりも早かったためとし、双方のワクチンに注意が必要とした。

この日発表された調査によると、12月14日─23日に行われたファイザー製ワクチンの接種は189万3360回に上り、そのうちアナフィラキシー反応が確認されたのは21件。このうち71%がワクチン接種後15分以内に発症したという。

英国の医薬品規制当局は、アナフィラキシーの既往歴がある人や医薬品または食料品に深刻なアレルギー反応を示す人はファイザー製ワクチンを接種すべきではないとしている。

【AFP=時事】新型コロナウイルスワクチンを常温放置し、使い物にならなくしたとされる米国の薬剤師について、「陰謀論者」で、ワクチンの安全性に関する根拠のないうわさを信じていることが分かった。当局が4日、明らかにした。

薬剤師のスティーブン・ブランデンバーグ(Steven Brandenburg)容疑者(46)は昨年12月、ウィスコンシン州グラフトン(Grafton)にあるオーロラ医療センター(Aurora Medical Center)で、新型ウイルスワクチンは危険で、ヒトのDNAを改変しかねないという誤った考えに基づき、米製薬大手モデルナ(Moderna)製のバイアル瓶57本を冷凍庫から取り出し、使い物にならなくしたとされる。バイアル瓶1本には、ワクチン10回分が入っている。

モデルナ製のワクチン、そして米製薬大手ファイザー(Pfizer)と独製薬ビオンテック(BioNTech)が共同開発したワクチンはそれぞれ、遺伝情報を人体に伝え、新型ウイルスに対する抗体の生成を促す伝令RNA(mRNA)技術に基づいている。

専門家によると、ワクチンがヒトのDNAを改変するという証拠は一切なく、これまでも大勢がmRNAワクチンを接種してきた。

検察当局によると、これらの新型ウイルスワクチンは超低温での保管が必要で、常温では成分が壊れる可能性があるが、ブランデンバーグ容疑者は2回にわたってワクチンを使い物にならなくしようとした。

ブランデンバーグ容疑者は当初、ワクチンは誤って常温放置されていたと病院側に報告していた。しかし、後に故意にワクチンを冷凍庫から取り出したと認めた。

病院はブランデンバーグ容疑者を解雇し、米連邦捜査局(FBI)などの関係当局に通報。容疑者は昨年12月31日に逮捕された。

IT大手がさまざまな対策を取っているにもかかわらず、ソーシャルメディアは新型ウイルスのパンデミック(世界的な大流行)、特にワクチンに関する根拠のない陰謀論であふれている。

当局と専門家らはこうした陰謀論について、接種へのためらいや接種拒否につながるため、新型ウイルス対策にとって深刻な脅威だと指摘している。

【ロンドン時事】国際オリンピック委員会(IOC)で最古参のディック・パウンド委員(カナダ)が、7月開幕予定の東京五輪の中止を避けるため、出場選手が新型コロナウイルスのワクチン接種を優先して受けられるようにすべきだとの考えを示した。英スカイニュース(電子版)が6日報じた。

パウンド氏は「カナダで300~400人の選手団が五輪に出場するため(優先的に)接種することには世論も反対しないだろう。それぞれの国の決断になり、列の割り込みだと言う人もいるだろうが、大会を開催するためには最も現実的な方法だと思う」と述べた。

既に英国では、同国選手団が7月までにワクチンを接種できるよう、政府と五輪委員会が協議しているという。

IOCのバッハ会長は昨年11月に来日した際、ワクチンの費用はIOCが負担するが、選手に対して義務化はしない考えを示していた。

FNN。
世界最速ペースの接種。
2020年12月から、イギリスやアメリカを初めとする各国でコロナウイルスのワクチン接種が開始された。中でも、世界最速ペースの接種で注目されているのがイスラエルだ。

中東の国イスラエルの人口は925万人で、東京都の人口よりも少ない。イスラエルでは12月20日にワクチン接種が開始され、オックスフォード大学運営の「データで見る私たちの世界(Our World in Data)」によると、2021年1月5日時点で既に人口の約16%に対する第一回目の接種が完了している。

世界で最も早くワクチン接種を開始したイギリスとアメリカでもまだ1.5%未満の人にしか接種が完了していないことと比較すると、イスラエルの接種スピードは驚異的だと言える。

イスラエルではワクチンを接種した人の数が、コロナ感染者の数を既に上回っている。

イスラエルが他国と圧倒的な差をつけてコロナ・ワクチン接種の「先進国」となった背景には、いくつかの理由が考えられる。

リーダーシップとスピード感。
第一は、ネタニヤフ首相のリーダーシップとスピード感だ。 ネタニヤフはイスラエルで最初にワクチン接種を受け、その様子はテレビ中継された。彼は1日15万人に接種可能な体制を確立し、2021年1月末までに人口の4分の1にあたる200万人以上に対し2回の接種を完了させることを目指すと述べた。

1月6日時点で、1日15万人の接種という目標は既に概ね達成されている。

ワクチン接種は医療関係者と60歳以上の高齢者、高リスク者が優先されている。ネタニヤフは、コロナによる死者の95%を占める高齢者と高リスク者へのワクチン接種が完了すれば、イスラエルは「世界で最初にパンデミックを克服した国になる可能性が高い」とも述べた。

またイスラエル当局は、極めて早期に製薬会社とワクチン購入の交渉を開始した旨を明らかにしており、2020年11月にはファイザー社から800万回分(400万人に接種可能)、12月にはモデルナ社から600万回分(300万人に接種可能)のワクチンを購入する契約を締結したとされる。

加えてネタニヤフ首相は12月、製薬会社のトップにワクチン供給のスピードをあげてほしいと直接要請し前向きな回答を得た、とも述べた。国のトップが製薬会社のトップに直談判したという話は、他国からは聞こえてこない。

常に「戦争状態」の国だからこそ。
第二は、常に「戦争状態」にある国だからこその危機に対する迅速な対応と強い連帯感だ。 全国に200カ所以上のワクチン接種センターが開設され、軍の衛生兵なども動員されている。ワクチン接種は週7日間、センターによっては24時間体制で行われている。

イスラエルはユダヤ教徒が多数を占める国であり、ユダヤ教の戒律では土曜日が安息日とされ、通常はあらゆる活動が禁止され予防接種も禁止されるものの、コロナワクチンに関しては「生命を守るため」として例外的に接種を認める法令も出された。

インターネット上にある「反ワクチン」情報を当局が検閲するなど、情報戦の面でも抜かりはない。 戦争に慣れたイスラエル国民が、国家の安全保障についての高い倫理観と、国民同士の強い連帯感を持っていることも重要だ。

野党もワクチンを政争の具に利用することはない。 イスラエルで今展開されているのは、政府主導のもとに全国民と軍が一致団結し、コロナウイルスという敵と戦う「総力戦」なのだ。

医療システムの高度なデジタル化。
第三は、医療システムの高度なデジタル化だ。 イスラエルでは18歳の国民全員に医療保険への加入が義務付けられており、個人情報がデジタル管理されている。ワクチン接種が可能になった人にはメールやメッセージで接種の予約をするよう通知が行き、予約を忘れた人もあとから予約を入れることができるシステムが構築されている。

イスラエル保健省長官は2020年末、2021年3月末までには大多数のイスラエル国民がワクチン接種を終えると述べた。イスラエルでは3月23日に総選挙が予定されている。計画通りに進めば、総選挙までに国民へのワクチン接種がほぼ完了することになる。

一方、日本のワクチン接種に関しては、厚生労働省は2021年2月下旬をめどに医療従事者、3月下旬をめどに高齢者への接種を始める体制を確保し、その後基礎疾患のある人などに優先して接種を行うという方針を示している。

ワクチン接種では世界をリードする立場にあるイスラエルは一方で2020年末、世界初の三度目の全国規模のロックダウンに踏み切った。東京都より人口の少ないイスラエルのコロナ感染者数は、日本の約二倍だ。

これまでロックダウンを避け、人口あたりの感染者数を低く抑えこんできた

日本とイスラエルとでは、あらゆる条件が大きく異なる。しかし日本でも感染者数が増加する中、ワクチン入手と接種の迅速さにみるスピード感ある政治や、情報のデジタル化、政治的対立を超えた国家規模での協力体制と連帯感など、見習うべき点は多くあると言えよう。

(ブルームバーグ): 富裕層一族の資産を管理するファミリーオフィスはヘッジファンド投資を増やそうとしている。

6日発表されたブラックロックとジュニパー・プレイスの調査によると、185のファミリーオフィスの3分の1以上がヘッジファンドへの資産配分を増やす計画だと回答した。

高い手数料とさえないリターンが嫌気され、近年はファミリーオフィスやその他の投資家のヘッジファンド離れが進んでいたが、新型コロナウイルスが経済を揺さぶる中で一部ファンドの成績は回復した。テクノロジー株への積極的な投資が奏功したほか、潤沢な景気刺激策が株式相場を押し上げた。

ブラックロックとジュニパーはリポートで、「最近の市場の波乱に加え、ボラティリティーが続くという中期的見通しが、ヘッジファンドの魅力を復活させた」と指摘した。

調査に答えたファミリーオフィスの4分の3以上が、株式ロング・ショート戦略のヘッジファンドを選好していた。これは昨年最も成功した戦略だった。

また、ファミリーオフィスは新型コロナ前に多く投資していた資産クラスであるプライベートエクイティー(PE、未公開株)や不動産への配分を増やす方針も示した。サステナブル投資への関心も高まっているという。

ブラックロックのファミリーオフィス担当欧州・中東・アフリカ(EMEA)責任者、シェリル・ニーダム氏は発表資料で「ファミリーオフィスはもはやサステナブル投資がリターンを犠牲にするものだとは考えていない」と説明した。

ブラックロックは昨年7、8月に調査を実施した。

東洋経済オンライン。
1月4日の金融市場ではアメリカの期待インフレ率を示す10年物ブレークイーブンインフレ率(以下10年BEI)がついに2%を突破するという動きが見られた。その傍らで10年債利回りは0.90%付近、ドルインデックスもおおむね90付近で横ばいとなっていたので、期待が先行して高進している構図が鮮明である。

10年BEIの2%突破は2018年11月16日以来、約2年2カ月ぶりであり、FRB(連邦準備制度理事会)が2019年に利下げ路線に転換する以前の水準に回帰したことになる。2018年11月といえば、すでにFRBが年3回の利上げを済ませ、翌月には4回目の利上げを敢行するタイミングである。

今とは対照的だ。感染拡大が深刻度を増すたびに裁量的なマクロ経済政策の発動が期待され、10年BEIが上がるが、実体経済はついてこない、という構図が続いて、そろそろ1年になる。

■FRBが抑制するフィッシャー効果  こうしたインフレ期待の高まりと、インフレ耐性に優れるとされる株価の上昇は一応の整合性が取れる。だが、理論的には人々の期待するインフレ率が上昇すると、名目金利も相応に上昇すると考えられる。いわゆる「名目金利=実質金利+インフレ期待」で定義されるフィッシャー効果の議論だ。

昨年来の株価上昇は、インフレ期待上昇に伴う実質金利の低下によるもの、という解説が目立つ。その説が正しいとすれば、名目金利上昇に伴う実質金利上昇は株価下落を招く可能性が高い。

利上げや量的緩和の縮小といった具体的な正常化プロセスが始まらなくても、経済・金融情勢が正常化に向かう過程で名目金利が上昇するというのは「普通のこと」だ。その「普通のこと」、すなわちフィッシャー効果の発現を、FRBがどれくらい抑制しようとするかが2021年には問われるだろう。

真っ当に考えれば、FRBの責務は株価の高値維持ではなく「雇用の最大化」と「物価の安定」の2つなのだから、明らかに先走っている株価の騰勢にブレーキをかけること自体は、さほど不思議なことではない。しかし、コロナ禍からの立ち上がりを図ろうとしている最中、あえてそうした株価潰しをやることについては相応の勇気が必要なのは間違いない。

したがって、「どれくらい抑制するのか」というさじ加減が重要になる。まず、名目金利の行方について、さまざまな見方がありうる。現状から横ばいでまったく変わらないという見方もあれば、大きく上がる、小さく上がる、もしくは逆に、感染再拡大に応じて下がっていくという見方もあるかもしれない。

■名目金利はつれて上昇するのか  筆者は、有効なワクチン接種も順次始まっている以上、2021年のアメリカの金利が「横ばいでまったく変わらない」という想定には無理があるという立場だ。実際、10年BEIの上昇スピードが速いので実質金利低下ばかりに目が行くが、昨年10~11月を境に名目金利も少しずつ上昇している。

アメリカ10年金利は、1~3月期に1.0%台に乗せ、年央までに1.2%、年末までに1.5%程度までの範囲ならば上昇余地があり、ドル相場の一方的な下落もこれに応じて止まると考えている。

逆に、ここからアメリカの金利が下がる展開があるのだろうか。ないとは言えない。コロナ変異種の強毒化やそれに伴うワクチンの無効化など、コロナ絡みでは何が起きるかわからない。実情はどうあれ、2021年はメディアを中心として副作用の存在をことさら喧伝する時間帯が必ずあると筆者は考えている。

その際、思惑主導でアメリカの金利が低下する可能性はリスクシナリオとして十分想定されるものだ。金利は上昇に賭けておくほうが無難だとは考えるが、逆サイドのリスクがゼロというわけではない。

話をアメリカの金利上昇に戻す。金利が上昇すれば株価の調整だけでなく、ドル建て債務を積み上げた途上国への影響も懸念されるだろう。リーマンショック後、金融市場ではドルを安価で調達できるようになり、とりわけ新興国では民間部門を中心としてドル建て債務が急速に積み上がったという経緯がある。

こうした、いわば「ドル化した世界」の危うさは過去に本コラムへの寄稿『「ドル化した世界」がFRBの利上げ路線を阻む』でも議論したことがあるので今回は詳しく議論しないが、まだ多くの途上国がドル建て債務を抱えたままの状態が放置されている。かかる状況下、アメリカの金利が上昇する過程では株価の動揺に加え、新興国通貨の価値下落が当該国の債務負担を増すという展開も十分懸念されるものだろう。

■2021年はタカ派とハト派のバランスに腐心  一方的に緩和方向への政策運営に尽くせばよかった2020年とは異なり、2021年以降のFRBは国内外への影響に鑑み、タカ派とハト派のバランスを取ることに腐心する難しい局面に入る。必然的に、アメリカの金利の低下とこれに伴うドル安だけを既定路線として見ておけば済んだ2020年とは違った相場観が求められる。

筆者はドル高局面への転換とまでは言わないが、アメリカの金利とドルの相互連関的な下落がいったん収束し、次の潮流に向かう「踊り場」のような年に2021年は位置づけられるのではないかと考えている。

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