アベノミクス「無残過ぎる失敗」

現代ビジネス。ダイヤモンドオンライン。
景気の先行きに不透明感が強まる中で、企業の採用姿勢にも変化の兆しが見えてきた。
文部科学省と厚生労働省が共同でまとめた2020年3月卒業予定者の2019年10月1日現在の就職内定状況によると、大学(学部)卒予定者は76.8%と、前の年に比べて0.2%低下した。
大卒内定率は、リーマンショック後の業績悪化で企業が採用を絞った2010年の57.6%を底に8年連続で上昇を続け、2018年には77.0%と過去最高を記録していた。
内定率はまだまだ高水準なものの、前年を下回ったのは9年ぶりのことだ。
また、短期大学卒業予定者の内定率も40.6%と2.2%低下、専修学校専門課程の卒業予定者の内定率も60.4%と0.9%低下しており、就職戦線全体に変化の兆しが出ていることを示した。
背景には企業の採用姿勢が変化していることがある。
米中貿易戦争など世界経済の先行きに不透明感が強まるなど、業績の伸び悩みを見込んで採用を抑えめにする企業が出てきた一方、業界の構造転換を見越して、採用を抑制している企業も出始めた。
また、新卒一括採用ではなく、中途採用などより多様な人事制度に変えていこうという動きもある。
中でも典型がメガバンク。
三菱UFJ銀行は期初計画で、2020年入社の新卒採用数を前年比45%減の約530人としたほか、三井住友銀行は10%減の約600人、みずほ銀行も2割程度減らすとした。
低金利で収益環境が悪化していることもあるが、スマホ決済などの新サービスが広がるなど、これまで独占的に行って収益源にしていた決済業務での競争激化に直面している。
店舗の削減やATM(現金自動預け払い機)の縮小などにも乗り出しており、従来型の事業モデルが大きく変化し始めている。
こうした業容転換に合わせた人材採用が必要になっているが、IT(情報技術)やコンピューターシステムに通じた人材を雇うには、新卒一括採用では難しくなっている。
能力が一定の大卒生を一括して採用し、社内教育で時間をかけて育てていくというスタイルが難しくなっているのだ。
新卒一括で大量採用をしてきたメガバンクの方針転換は、就職戦線に大きな影響を与えている。
「他社よりも早く新卒者を押さえようという過熱気味の空気が幾分やわらいだ」と大手製造業の人事担当者も語る。
何が何でも他社に負けないように急いで採用する、というムードは消えつつある。
それでも、高水準の就職内定率が示すように、人手不足は簡単には収まりそうにない。
大学の定員拡大などによって、1980年代には40万人以下だった「大卒者」の数は、90年代半ばに50万人を超えた。
人口減少によって働く若者の数自体が大きく減っているように思われがちだが、実際には大卒者数は高水準を維持している。
雇用者数が過去最多を更新し続けている背景には、働く高齢者や女性の増加と共に、大卒者が高水準を維持していたことがある。
だが、これもそろそろ限界が来ている。
人口減少が一向に止まらないのだ。
2016年の出生数は97万6978人となり、1899年に統計を始めて以降、初めて100万人の大台を割り込んだ。
今後、若年層の減少が鮮明になるとともに、大卒者も減少していくことになる。
企業はどうやって有能な人材を確保していくのかが大きな課題になってくるわけだ。
新卒一括採用という従来の採用だけで、事業を行うのに十分な人材を確保できると考えている企業は少数派になってきた。
産休や育休制度の拡充で採用した女性社員を「逃さない」のは当たり前になってきた。
せっかく経験を積んだ働き盛りの女性を退職させるのは会社にとって大きな損失である。
もはや「寿退社」や「出産退社」といった言葉は死語になりつつある。
総務省の2019年10月の労働力調査によると、15歳から64歳までの女性の就業率は71.8%と過去最高水準に達している。
それでは、今後、就職活動が本格化する現在の3年生の就職戦線はどうなるのだろうか。
2021年3月卒業予定者ということになる。東京オリンピック・パラリンピックも終わった後の入社ということになる。
企業は景気の減速をかなり気にし始めている。
特にサービス産業では、2019年10月からの消費増税の影響が予想以上に大きくなっていることから、消費減退が深刻化することを懸念している。
オリンピックが終わると訪日外国人の数も頭打ちになり、いわゆるインバウンド消費にも陰りが出て来るのではないか、と見る関係者が少なくない。
そんな中での採用活動が「慎重姿勢」になることは十分に予想できる。
長期的な人手不足や新卒者の減少が見えているだけに、優秀な新卒者はすぐにでも採用したいというのが企業の本音だが、全体的に新卒者の能力が落ちているという声も聞く。
採用予定枠を充足しないまま、その年度の新卒採用を打ち切る企業も少なくない。
中途採用の枠を増やしていく企業が増え続けるに違いない。
2020年10月時点の新卒内定率はどうなるか。
今年の76.8%に比べて激減することはないにせよ、低下傾向が続くと見るべきだろう。
1つの会社に入ったら定年退職まで一生安泰という日本型雇用が崩れ始めて久しいが、今後数年で、それが誰の目にも明らかになっていくに違いない。
アベノミクスが始まった2013年以降、法人企業の従業員1人当たり付加価値は順調に増加した。
とりわけ規模の大きな企業で、この傾向は顕著だった。
しかし、この間に賃金はほとんど上がっておらず、増加した付加価値はほとんど企業の利益に回された。
なぜこのような現象が起きているのだろうか?
それは、大企業で非正規従業者が増えているからだ。
「1人当たり付加価値が増えても賃金が上がらない」というこのメカニズムが、いまの日本経済で最大の問題だ。
00年代に徐々に落ち込み、リーマンショックでかなり落ち込んだ。その後、徐々に取り戻して、17年に1996年頃の水準まで戻った。
2012年以降の期間では、従業員1人当たりの付加価値は顕著に増加した。
ところが、この期間に、従業員1人当たりの給与(賃金)は増えていないのだ。
付加価値が増えたのに、なぜ、賃金が上昇しないのか?
従業員1人当たり付加価値の状況は、企業規模で違いがある。
以下では、資本金5000万円以上の企業を「大中企業」、資本金5000万円未満の企業を「小企業」と呼ぶことにし、これらを比較する。
大中企業は1990年代の半ば以降、ほとんど一定だったが、リーマンショックで2008、09年に減少した。
その後、13年頃から増加し、最近までその傾向が続いている。
ただし、水準からいうと、リーマンショックで落ち込んだ分を取り戻して、最近の年度でやっとリーマンショック前に戻ったにすぎない。
他方で、小企業の状況は、1990年代の半ばから傾向的に減少した。
リーマンショックの影響は、大中企業ほど顕著ではなかった。
2008年以降、傾向的に増加していたが、18年には落ち込んでいる。
つぎに、給与水準の動向を見よう。
大中企業の状況は、2013年から最近に至るまで、ほとんど一定だ。
従業員1人当たり付加価値はこの期間に増加しているのだが、増加分は利益に取られてしまったわけだ。
これは、非正規就業者を増やして、賃金を抑制しているからだ。
賃金を抑制することによって利益が増えたのである。
他方、小企業の状況は、給与水準は、若干、上昇している。
とくに2017年頃まではそうだ。
大中企業で従業員1人当たり付加価値が増えたのに、なぜ、賃金が上昇しないのか?
それは、小企業から大中企業への就業者の移動があり、また、新しく非正規になった人が大中企業に雇われたからだ。
この現象を、「大企業の零細企業化」と名付ける。
その状況を詳しく見よう。
まず、大中企業の人員の推移を見ると、顕著な増加傾向が見られる。
2013年には1750万人程度だったものが、18年には2000万人を超えており、この間に250万人以上増加している。
他方で、小企業の人員の推移を見ると、13年には1700万人を超えていたのが、18年には1600万人程度となっており、この間に100万~150万人程度減っている。
これらの人々は、大中企業の非正規従業員になったと推測される。
他方で、13年から18年の間の日本全体の就業者の変化を労働力統計によって見ると、つぎのとおりだ。
就業者は6318万人から6655万人へと337万人(5.3%)増加した。
役員を除く雇用者は、5213万人から5596万人へと383万人(7.3%)増加した。
このうち、正規従業員は3302万人から3476万人へと174万人(5.3%)増加した。
また、非正規従業員は1910万人から2120万人へと210万人(11.0%)増えた。
これは、役員を除く雇用者の増加のうちの55%を占める。
この数字を参照すると、1つの可能性として、上で見た大中企業の人員増250万人のうち、非正規従業員がつぎの数だけいたと考えることができる。
(1)小企業から流入した150万人。
(2)それ以外に増加した従業者(100万人)のうちの55%である55万人。
そうであれば、大中企業で増加した従業員250万人のうち、205万人が非正規従業員だったことになる。
つまり、増加した従業員の約82%が非正規従業員だった。
これが、「大企業の零細企業化」と言ったことの内容だ。
今後、製造業の業績悪化で売り上げが減少すると、利益は大幅に落ち込むだろう。
この結果、1人当たり付加価値は減少に転じる可能性が強い。
他方で、小企業から大中企業への従業員の移動は、今後も続くだろう。
とくに、消費税でインボイスが施行されると、この動きが加速されるだろう。
つまり、「大企業の零細化」は、さらに進むだろう。
働き方改革における「同一労働・同一賃金」によって正規職員の諸手当が減額されている。
また残業規制によって残業手当がなくなる半面で、仕事量は変わらないので、就業時間外に会社の外で仕事をせざるを得なくなっているとも言われる。
これらは、正規従業員の実質的な賃金切り下げと言うべきものだ。
こうなると、「正規従業員の非正規化」と言える状況が進行するかもしれない。
総じて、賃金が伸びない状況は、今後も続くだろう。
今後、賃金が上がらないとすると、社会保険の保険料も増えない。
公的年金の収支バランスを確認する「財政検証」のケースⅠでは、名目賃金が年率2%上昇するとされている。しかし、このようなことは到底達成できないだろう。
それに加えて被保険者(保険の負担者)数が減少するので、保険料の総額が減るだろう。
こうして、公的年金制度が破綻することが予想される。
同様の問題が、医療保険や介護保険でも発生し、社会保障制度の維持は極めて困難になるだろう。
日本の賃金水準が国際的に見て低水準になってしまうことは、長期的な経済発展の観点からも由々しき問題だ。
高度な技術者や研究者のジョブマーケットは国際的なので、海外から優秀な人材を呼び寄せられないのはもちろんのこと、日本からの人材流出が起きることになる。
韓国の賃金水準はすでに日本の4分の3程度になっており、最低賃金は韓国のほうが高い。
日本人非正規就業者のドルベースの賃金と新興国の平均賃金が接近してくると、「外国人労働者の枠を広げても、労働者が来ない」といったことが十分に考えられる。
これがアベノミクスの果実である。
アベノミクスは安い労働力を必要とする。
6年かけて景気が好転していないからだ。
アベノミクスは日経株価を吊り上げるだけの経済政策だった。
頼みの日経株価もゴールドマンサックス・クレディスイス・JPモルガン・メリルリンチ・ドイツ銀行にコントロールされている。
「貯蓄から投資へ」。
農林中央金庫・JAバンク・ゆうちょ銀行・みずほ銀行・地方銀行で信託投資した高齢者の金は仕組み債・ハイイールド債・ジャンク債・ゴミ債に変わり果てている。
CLO・ABSのようなデリバティブ・金融派生商品も大量に日本の金融機関に上陸している。
ドイツ銀行のように危険な金融会社が日本中にある。
債券市場は株式市場よりも遥かに規模が大きい。
債券市場が暴落を始めれば6年がかりで吊り上げた株価など瞬殺され大暴落する。
大学生には奨学金を背負わせ返還の利子で金融会社が儲けようとする。
大学生が卒業しても就職先が無い。
「安い賃金で長時間働け」という奴隷市場しか用意されていない。
若者を奴隷に酷使しようとするも40・50代のリストラが加速する。
日本人の職場を確保・確立せぬまま、入管法を改悪して外国人労働者を受け入れる。
外国人技能実習生など既に奴隷である。
日本は何時、アパルトヘイト政策を実施したのか。
労働に「生きがい・喜び・誇り」が持てない国家など衰退して当たり前である。
労働力が衰退する挙句の果てに社会保障が崩壊する。
「税と社会保障の一体改革」など本物のマントラである。
安倍晋三・黒田東彦。
責任の取りようが有るのか。
二人は既に歴史に名を刻んでいる。
「悪夢のような暗黒のアベノミクス政策のエンジンを蒸かした二人」と嘲笑される歴史である。

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