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＜過去10年と比べても、世界はより危なくなった。トランプが「最大限の圧力」政策を振り回したせいもあるし、中ロが台頭してきたせいもあるが＞。
米外交問題評議会（CFR）の予防行動センターは12月18日、2020年度の「予防優先順位報告書」を発表した。
世界各地で紛争が起こる可能性やその深刻さを予測したものだ。
それによれば2020年は、過去10年に比べてどの年よりも、米軍が対応を迫られるような危機が起きやすいと警告した。
報告書は、外交の専門家500人が「現在進行中の紛争、および今後起きる可能性がある紛争の見通しとアメリカの国益への影響」を評価しまとめたもので、2020年は世界が歴史的レベルの騒乱に揺れ、米政府の外交目標にも影響を及ぼしかねないと指摘している。
「調査に回答した専門家たちは、過去7年間の調査に比べて、より多くの脅威が米軍の対応を必要とする可能性が高いと評価した。世界情勢が不安定化している結果だ」と、予防行動センターのポール・B・ステアーズ所長とジョン・W・ベッシーJrは報告書で結論づけた。
「懸念すべき30の紛争のうち、2020年に実際に起きる可能性は低いと判断されたのは2つだけ」で、とくにアメリカのテロ対策を担う国土安全保障に対する脅威が最も大きい」。
＜トランプの強引な政策が裏目に？＞。
ドナルド・トランプ米政権は2019年、イラン・北朝鮮・ベネズエラの3カ国に対して、いわゆる「最大限の圧力」をかけ続け、いずれの国も降参するどころかますます態度を硬化させている。
アメリカと中国・ロシアという大国同士の関係も悪化して世界の安定が損なわれるなか、東欧や西欧で大規模な紛争が起こる懸念も高まっている。
報告書の中でアメリカにとって最大の脅威として挙げられたのが、発生リスクは「中程度」だが衝撃度は「高い」複数のシナリオ。
このうち米国内で発生し得るシナリオは2つで、ひとつは「選挙システムなどのインフラに対するサイバー攻撃」、もうひとつは「米国または同盟国に大勢の死傷者を出すテロ攻撃」だ。
海外でのシナリオには、アジア地域における3つの潜在的脅威が含まれる。
一つ目は「イランとアメリカまたはその同盟国の武力衝突」、二つ目は「北朝鮮の核ミサイル危機」、三つ目は「南シナ海における中国と周辺国の武力衝突」だ。
そのほかでは、ウクライナとロシアの衝突懸念や中米発移民危機などが挙げられている。
左派政権が台頭し、アメリカが長年介入してきたラテンアメリカ諸国はこの数か月、反政府デモや政権交代などで不安定化している。
アメリカにとって次に大きいのが、衝撃度は「中程度」だが発生リスクが「高い」シナリオだ。
その中にはラテンアメリカの2つの脅威も含まれている。
一つは「メキシコにおける組織犯罪関連の暴力の激化」、もう一つは「ベネズエラにおける経済危機と政情不安の激化により、さらなる混乱や難民の流出増加が引き起こされること」だ。
中東とその周辺地域の脅威も、このカテゴリーに含まれている。イラン、トルコとクルド人勢力、シリア、アフガニスタンなどだ。
＜最大のライバルであるロシアと中国も＞。
発生リスクは「低い」が衝撃が「大きい」カテゴリーには、アメリカとライバル超大国の対立が含まれる。
たとえば「東欧でのロシアの侵略行為が発端で、ロシアとNATO加盟国の間で軍事衝突が起こる可能性」や、「2020年の台湾総統選をきっかけとした米中危機」の可能性がある。
他にも、カシミールを巡る印パ戦争、パレスチナ紛争、イエメン内戦などリストは続く。
報告書が指摘するように、アメリカの一番のアメリカが世界各地で終わりのない軍事介入を続けている間に、ライバルのロシアと中国はその間隙を縫うように勢力を伸ばしている。
2020年度の予防優先順位報告書にリストアップされた潜在的脅威が現実になる可能性はケースによって異なるが、それらの脅威がなくならないのはほぼ確実だ。
東洋経済オンライン。末廣徹みずほ証券エコノミスト。
米中通商交渉での第1弾の合意、英国の総選挙における保守党勝利によって「合意なし離脱」が当面回避されたことなどを受け、市場ではリスクオンムードが広がっている。
もっとも、足元の株高は秋ごろから始まっており、背景にはFRB(米連邦準備制度理事会)によるバランスシートの再拡大とECB(欧州中央銀行)による量的緩和政策という金融政策の転換があると、筆者は考えている。
米国は9月下旬に短期金利(債券の貸し借りをともなったレポ市場が中心)が急上昇したことを受け、2020年4～6月期まで一定ペースで市場の資金供給量を増やすことを決めた。
FRBはこの対応は金融緩和策ではなく、短期市場の資金量をコントロールするための技術的な措置であると説明しているが、中央銀行がバランスシートを拡大している(市中の資金供給量を増やしている)という点では、量的緩和政策と変わりはない。
リーマンショック以降、FRBは複数回にわたって量的緩和政策を行ってきたが、いずれの局面でも「金余り相場」によってリスク資産(特に株式)が買われやすく、相場が上昇してきたという記憶が市場参加者には鮮明に残っている。
したがって、FRBがバランスシートを拡大することを約束している20年4～6月期までは株式市場は堅調に推移するという見方もできる。
バブルの兆候を「みずほクラッシュ指数」で探る。
ただ、足元の株高はやや「スピード違反」にも見える。
前倒しで株高が進みすぎてしまえば、期せずして市場が自律的な調整を余儀なくされる、「ミニバブルとその崩壊」もありうるだろう。
今回のコラムでは、「みずほクラッシュ指数」を用いて、足元の株価がどの程度「バブル的な動き」をしているのかを検証した。
筆者は経済物理学のモデルを用いた「みずほクラッシュ指数」(以下、クラッシュ指数)を作成し、主に日本株におけるバブル(下落の場合は逆バブル)の予測を行ってきた 。
本コラムでも3回にわたって取り上げ、ほぼ的中させている(『経済物理学で日経平均株価の暴落時期を探る』、『「2月暴落」が的中！ 経済物理学で「次」を予想』『経済物理学で予測、株価は2019年初に下落』)。
クラッシュ指数は、経済物理学においてバブル相場の典型的な形状を示すと言われている「臨界モデル」の考え方を用いて作成される。
具体的には、TOPIXの100営業日のデータセットに対して「臨界モデル」のフィッティング(形状の当てはめ)を逐次的に行う。
要するに、100営業日のチャートがバブル発生時の典型的な形状にどの程度似ているのかを確認することで市場の「バブル度」を計ろうというコンセプトである。
「バブル度」が高くなればなるほど、バブル(および逆バブル)が崩壊する蓋然性も高くなると考えられる。
なお、「バブル度」の数値はモデル式に対する当てはまりの良さを示す決定係数とし、この決定係数をクラッシュ指数と呼んでいる。
クラッシュ指数は0～1の値をとり、1に近いほど「バブル度」が高く、崩壊の蓋然性が高くなる。
2017年以降のデータでクラッシュ指数を確認すると、指数が大幅に上昇した局面が2つある。
すでにTOPIXはバブル、いつ崩れてもおかしくない。
1つ目は2017年末～18年初である。
17年9月以降に株価の上昇が始まり、17年末にはクラッシュ指数は0.8を上回った。
この状態は長期化せず、TOPIXは18年1月23日に1911.07ポイントのピークをつけ、その後は急落した。
ミニバブルの崩壊である。
2つ目は、2018年末の「逆バブル」である。
これは売りが売りを呼ぶような形で、価格が下落する局面のことだ。
指数が0.58まで上昇した18年12月25日にTOPIXは1415.55ポイントでボトムをつけ、その後は反発した。
これらを勘案すると、クラッシュ指数が0.6前後を超えて上昇した場合は、バブル崩壊、もしくは逆バブルの底打ち反転の可能性が高まるということになる。
そして、2019年12月2日時点での指数は0.73に上昇している。
つまり、すでに今の高値のTOPIXはバブル的な動きになっており、バブルが崩壊する可能性がある。
昨年と同様に、年末から年始にかけて市場が大きく変動するリスクは相応にありそうだ。
なお、2019年11月5日に高値をつけてその後下落した東証REIT指数についても、同じ方法でクラッシュ指数を求めると、19年10月23日に0.95まで上昇していた。
REIT市場はかなり高い確度でバブルだったということができる。
クラッシュ指数を用いた分析は、TOPIX以外にも、有効と言えよう。さまざまな市場でバブルが生じているかどうかを今後も注視していきたい。
20日、日経平均株価の値動きがピタリと止まる。
クレディスイス以外のゴールドマンサックス・SMBC・JPモルガン・オランダ銀行・ドイツ銀行・シティバンクがクリスマス休暇に入ったからである。
日経株式市場のバブル・バブル崩壊も全て海外勢に仕組まれている。
日経株式市場をカジノルーレットに変えて海外勢に勝たせるカラクリがアベノミクスである。
安倍晋三「日本売ります」でしかない。
20日、来日したイラン大統領ロウハニとの首脳会談で安倍晋三は「中東への自衛隊派遣」を説明した。
中東への自衛隊派遣を２７日の閣議決定で目指し、日本の船舶への安全の確保を求める。
海上自衛隊の派遣は日本の船の安全操行に必要な情報収集・分析の為であり、アメリカの有志国連合とは無関係であると説明する。
イランの核開発も議題にし欧米との対立が深刻なイランの孤立化を防ごうと説き伏せる。
流石、外遊の安倍晋三である。
２０２０年はトランプのまいた種が芽吹き世界に紛争の嵐が吹き荒れる。
アベノミクスで日本経済を粉みじんに砕き、今また「石油の確保・商売の為」という名目で、海上自衛隊を派遣すると勝手を言う。
世界情勢が危険な時ほど自衛隊を海外に派遣すべきではない。
「平和憲法」を盾にとり「自衛隊は海外に派遣できない」と言い張り。
最悪、「国際貢献の為に国境無き医師団と供に行動する」と国境なき医師団の環境整備の為に派遣する方便を行使すべきだ。
「海外に活動展開しても自衛隊は国際平和の為に貢献している」と世界中の国・人に見せつける必要がある。
安倍晋三に「イランのロウハニとは話が付いている」と胸を張られても、少しも安心できない。
安倍晋三の頭の中に海上自衛隊派遣の出口戦略はあるか。
ホルムズ海峡が「死の海」になるのは時間の問題である。
自衛隊員がホルムズ海峡で殉職した後、国会で「どのような経緯で派遣させたのか」と野党から攻められ、「記録・公文書が残っていない」という伝家の宝刀を抜かれても困る。
手かざし浄霊の霊能者・霊感商法の霊能者と結託する信念の無い総理大臣の為に、自衛隊員の命を賭けさせることには断固反対である。
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sebuah. Pasaran Togel Singapore (SGP Pools)
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Akhir Kata
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Sebelum player bahas semakin saat, siapa yang tidak menyadari permainan togel?
Permainan judikan menebak angka memang sudah ada semenjak zaman dulu ini diduduki oleh segala umur di berbagai manapun. Mengapa tidak, pemasangan ini sangat mudah guna dimainkan dan ditekuni oleh orang umum
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yang akan diperkenalkan nanti nya. Seandainya tebakan yang kau pasangkan itu pas, maka ada kredit besar yang menanti anda.
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